Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 8)

This past week I picked three games out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.  Lawrenson picked six out of ten correctly with one correct score for 90 points.  His celebrity guest picked one correctly for 10 points.  Merson picked six out of ten correctly with no correct scores for a total of 60 points.  This was yet another, another bad week for me but at least I beat the celebrity guest.

In fact, I would have been better off if I had stuck with the prior system that used last year’s standings. I would have gotten six right for 60 points.  I hope no one is actually betting money on my picks.

My current total for the season is 29 out of 70 with for 380 points.  Lawrenson has picked 31 out of 70 for 550 points.  Merson has picked 35 out of 69 for a total of 590 points.
When Lawrenson and Merson make their new picks I will link them here and here--unless I forget or get too busy yet again.
PREDICTIONS
My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:
Palace-West Brom           1-0
Aston Villa-Stoke             1-1
Cherries-Watford            1-1
Man City-Newcastle       1-0
Norwich-Leicester           1-1
Sunderland-West Ham  1-2
Chelsea-Southampton   1-1
Everton-Liverpool            1-0
Arsenal-Man U                 1-1
Swansea-Tottenham      1-1

 

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 7)

Since the first six fixtures of the season have been played, my prediction system will now change to its permanent form where the predictions are based on the current table position of each team.  I expect that that will improve the accuracy of my predictions which has been relatively poor so far this season.  (On the other hand, home teams have not done that well this season and that is  also responsible for my poor performance since my system favors the home team.) 

That being said, my system also faded in the second half of last season which suggests to me that, perhaps, the system would work best if it were based entirely upon recent performance.  Very possibly, my system would be most accurate if I only considered the relative table positions of each club over the past X number of games.  Of course, the problem would then be deciding what X should be.  If X is too low, the unbalanced schedule and the limited sample size would overly impact the predictions.  If I chose too large an X, it would not be much different than simply relying on the whole season. 
On the other hand, the whole purpose of my prediction system was to test whether a simple mechanical prediction system could outperform, or at least perform comparably to, the experts.  Last year it did.  This year, so far it has not.  If I were to start using a system that required me to look at the last 15 matches for each club, it would go from a simple system that is easy to use to one that requires a lot of work which sort of defeats the whole purpose.  Of course, it still would be work that could be done by anyone without any special expertise.  I will probably experiment with this system in a few weeks and, if I have time, I might go back and see how the new system would have done with the games this season.  However, I am not anticipating a lot of spare time for this sort of thing so it may never happen. 
This past week I picked two games out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 20 points.  Lawrenson picked four out of ten correctly with one correct scores for 70 points.  His celebrity guest picked three correctly for 60 points.  Merson picked three out of ten correctly with no correct scores for a total of 30 points.  Yet another bad week for me.
My current total for the season is 26 out of 60 with for 350 points.  Lawrenson has picked 25 out of 60 for 460 points.  Merson has picked 29 out of 59 for a total of 530 points.
When Lawrenson and Merson make their new picks I will link them here and here--unless I forget or get too busy yet again.
PREDICTIONS
My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:
Tottenham-Man City       0-1
Leicester-Arsenal             2-1
Liverpool-Aston Villa       1-0
Man U-Sunderland          1-0
Southampton-Swansea   0-1
Stoke-Cherries                  1-1
West Ham-Norwich         2-1
Newcastle-Chelsea          1-1
Watford-Palace               1-1
West Brom-Everton        1-1

 

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 6)

This past week I picked seven games out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 70 points.  Lawrenson picked five out of ten correctly with one correct scores for 80 points.  His celebrity guest picked five correctly for 50 points.  Merson picked five out of ten correctly with one correct score for a total of 80 points.

My current total for the season is 24 out of 50 with for 330 points.  Lawrenson has picked 21 out of 50 for 390 points.  Merson has picked 26 out of 49 for a total of 500 points.
When Lawrenson and Merson make their new picks I will link them here and here--unless I forget or get too busy.  I had to go out of town again last week before I could link them.
PREDICTIONS
My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:
Chelsea-Arsenal              2-1
Aston Villa-West Brom  1-1
Cherries-Sunderland      1-1
Newcastle-Watford        2-1
Stoke-Leicester                2-1
Swansea-Everton            2-1
Man City-West Ham       2-1
Tottenham-Palace           2-1
Liverpool-Norwich           2-1
Southampton-Man U     1-1

Monday, September 7, 2015

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 5)

This past week I picked five games out of ten correctly with one correct score for 80 points.  Lawrenson picked five out of ten correctly with two correct scores for 110 points.  His celebrity guest picked picked three correctly for 30 points.  Merson picked five out of ten correctly with one correct score for a total of 80 points.

My current total for the season is 17 out of 40 with for 260 points.  Lawrenson has picked 16 out of 40 for 310 points.  Merson has picked 21 out of 39 for a total of 420 points.

When Lawrenson and Merson make their new picks I will link them here and here.  I didn't link their picks last week because I left town on vacation (holiday) before they were posted.

Only one more round of predictions before I can rely upon the data from this season.  I assume that will help.  On the other hand, if home clubs continue to underperform, my system will not work well.  However, I cannot believe that the home field advantage which has existed in all sports for decades or longer (the stats for ancient Roman gladiator competitions are not easily accessible) can suddenly disappear in the Premier League in2015.
PREDICTIONS
My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:
Everton-Chelsea                              1-2

Arsenal-Stoke                                   2-1

Palace-Man City                               1-2

Norwich-Cherries                            1-1

Watford-Swansea                           1-2

West Brom-Southampton            1-1

Man U-Liverpool                             2-1

Sunderland-Tottenham                 1-2

Leicester-Aston Villa                       2-1

West Ham-Newcastle                    2-1         

Thursday, September 3, 2015

August 2015 Reading List

The list is in chronological order this month.

Books Finished
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone by J. K. Rowling
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets by J. K. Rowling
Veiled (Alex Versus Book 6) by Benedict Jacka
This is another fantasy novel set in the modern world.  Alex Versus is a magician who has the power to see into the future, but in a limited way.  He can scout out futures based upon his actions, but they soon become too complicated to follow.  He knows what will happen if he opens a door, but he does not wake up knowing what he will have for dinner.  The primary use of his skill is to look at the outcomes from each of his possible actions and pick the best one—but sometimes there are no good options.  Obviously, I enjoy this series of books or I would have stopped before finishing book 2.  This series contains a bit more magical combat that most which I could sometimes do without.  On the other hand, it doesn’t feel that the author is pulling new magical powers out of his hat to solve (or create) new problems.  That doesn’t mean that he isn’t, but he does a good job of covering it.  If you want to try this series you should start with the first book, Fated.  That being said, I would recommend Butcher’s Harry Dresden series (mentioned last month) over this one.
Relics of War:  A Legend of Ethshar by Lawrence Watt-Evans
This fantasy novel is not set in the modern world.  It is one of the many books in Watt-Evans’ Ethshar series. Generally, his books have a light and playful tone--even when dealing with more difficult subjects including war and death. I enjoyed it, but it is not the book I would point to if I were trying to recruit a new Watt-Evans reader. 
The Ethshar series takes place in a world with lots of different types of magic.  A war which has lasted generations ends with the gods destroying one side.  In the aftermath, new societies and kingdoms form and things become complicated.  I have read and enjoyed all of the books in the series and most of his other books as well.  If you want to give his Ethshar series a try I would start with A Misenchanted Sword, With a Single Spell, or The Blood of a Dragon.  If you want to try his other stories you could start with his Hugo Award winning story “Why I Left Harry’s All-Night Hamburgers.”  He also writes science fiction, sometimes under the name, Nathan Archer.
Tales of Ethshar by Lawrence Watt-Evans
A collection of Ethshar short stories.
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban by J. K. Rowling
Proxima by Stephen Baxter
Small Wars: A Jack Reacher Story by Lee Child
This is not really a book, just a short story, but I bought it as a separate item on my Kindle account so that is enough for me to list it here.  It is one more episode in Lee Child’s long running Jack Reacher series.  It is nothing special compared to the rest of series but Reacher fans will enjoy it.  No one else is likely to read it.  If you want to start reading the series you should start with Killing Floor, the first published novel in the series.
Small Wars takes place in the 1980s when Reacher was still an MP in the Army.  He is required to investigate the murder of the richest female soldier in the US Army who was on the fast track to general.  The solution to the crime was both unexpected and predictable.
By the way, Jack Reacher in the books is significantly different from the character as played by Tom Cruise in the movie, but in many ways very much the same.  Both are retired military police who go around fixing things their own way, but the Reacher from the books is a big muscular guy—not at all like Cruise.  The movie does an excellent job of making the difference not matter, but it is something every Reacher fan noticed.
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire by J. K. Rowling
Good and Valuable Consideration:  Jack Reacher vs. Nick Heller by Lee Child and Joseph Finder
Another Jack Reacher short story I had previously overlooked.  This one is a stunt story first published in an Anthology, Faceoff, where two authors collaborate on a story involving a continuing character from each author.  I had not heard of Nick Heller or Joseph Finder before, but this story was enough to make me decided to try out the first Hunter book, Vanished.  On the other hand, the concept was not enough to make me buy the anthology itself.
The Red: First Light (Red Trilogy 1) by Linda Nagata
The Trials (Red Trilogy 2) by Linda Nagata
This science fiction trilogy is set in a near future Earth where defense contractors control things.  They make sure there is always a war or two going to ensure a constant demand for their products.  A cynical person might think that this world is not much different from our current world which is, I assume, the point.
The soldiers use very advanced technology making this yet another novel descended spiritually from Starship Troopers by Robert Heinlein, although he would likely not approve of its politics.  I reread the first book so as to better follow The Trials which just came out.  Obviously, I cannot speak reliably as to the quality of the trilogy as a whole, but the first two books were very good.  I do wish I had just waited for the whole trilogy to come out so I could read it all at once, but I often lack patience.
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix by J. K. Rowling
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince by J.K. Rowling
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows by J.K. Rowling
As it turns out, I did reread the entire series again, in relatively short order.  I do not have anything new to say about these books.  I enjoyed them when I first read then and I have enjoyed them each time I reread them.  I cannot remember how many times I have read the books but it is somewhere between 10 and 15 for the first and fourth volumes.  I have reread the others less often.  Unlike the Masters of Rome series, discussed below, I am confident I will reread these books again.  I will probably watch the movies again as well.
If it is not clear, I highly recommend these books to everyone.  I also recommend Rowling’s Cormoran Strike books which are completely different.  If you buy any of these books, be sure to let Rowling know it was at my suggestion.
Vanished (Nick Heller Book 1) by Joseph Finder
As I mentioned, I bought this book because I found the Nick Heller character interesting in Good and Valuable Consideration where he was paired with Jack Reacher.  I enjoyed this book and will probably read at least one more book in the series, but it didn’t grab me as strongly as did the Jack Reacher series to which it bears some similarities.  Heller is more connected to the modern world than is Reacher and he has friends and family.  He even has a regular job, albeit one in business security, but like Reacher he is an intelligent, dogged investigator who can take care of himself in a fight.  They are both unrealistically self-confident.  I can’t really put my finger on why I like Heller less, but because I do I cannot recommend this book to anyone who has not read all the Jack Reacher books.  (If you did not like the Jack Reacher books, you are unlikely to like this book either.)
Books Started
Football Manager Stole My Life by Iain MacIntosh, Kenny Millar, and Neil White
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets by J. K. Rowling
Dire Predictions:  Understanding Climate Change by Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump
This book is an interesting, but depressing, analysis and explanation of the current science of climate change.  I will be reading it in fits and starts over the next few months.
Veiled (Alex Versus Book 6) by Benedict Jacka
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban by J. K. Rowling
Relics of War:  A Legend of Ethshar by Lawrence Watt-Evans
Tales of Ethshar by Lawrence Watt-Evans
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire by J. K. Rowling
Ultima (Proxima 2) by Stephen Baxter
I started this book immediately upon finishing Proxima, but I have not read it in weeks.  I think I was put off by the unexpected appearance of space faring ancient Romans.  (I like my ancient Romans ancient—see below.)  I am sure that Baxter will make it all make sense but my delaying in continuing to read the book is not a good sign.
First Man in Rome (Masters of Rome 1) by Colleen McCullough
When this book was first published in 1990 I immediately bought and read it.  Ever since I read I, CIaudius and saw the TV series, I have been a fan of Roman historical fiction.  So I read each book in this series as they came out in 1991, 1993, 1996, and 1997.  There was then a long break to 2002 before she publish, The October Horse, which was announced as the last one in the series.   Much to my surprise a final book was published in 2007, Antony and Cleopatra. I read about a third of it and stopped.  Not because I didn’t like it, but because I was sure that there weren’t going to be any more books in the series and I didn’t want it to end.
When McCullough died this past January, I decided I would reread the entire series from it start and this time I would finish it.  Since the books are long and I have plenty of other things to read, this project will undoubtedly take several months.  It is also an unusual situation for me.  I have never before started rereading one of my favorite books knowing that this will be the last time I read it, but, in this case, the series is so long that I doubt I will find the time to read it again.  There are too many new books to read and too many other favorites to reread.  Also, I expect to die eventually.
Obviously, I enjoyed these books very much and, if you are going to read them, this is where to start.  If you liked I, Claudius, you can think of this entire series as a prequel to I, Claudius.
Small Wars: A Jack Reacher Story by Lee Child
The Red: First Light (Red Trilogy 1) by Linda Nagata
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix by J. K. Rowling
Just Mercy:  A Story of Justice and Redemption by Bryan Stevenson
This is a depressing, but interesting, book about the currents state of death penalty “justice” in the United States with a focus its core of racial violence.  There was a time when I considered working on death penalty appeals, but I decided not to because I would only have been facilitating the executions of my clients. California does not have enough attorneys doing death penalty appeals to handle the case load.  Since unrepresented clients cannot have their death penalties affirmed, there is a case to be made for leaving them unrepresented.  Also, the California Supreme Court seemed devoted to underpaying death penalty attorneys.  All in all, I am happy with my decision.
Good and Valuable Consideration:  Jack Reacher vs. Nick Hunter by Lee Child and Joseph Finder
The Trials (Red Trilogy 2) by Linda Nagata
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince by J.K. Rowling
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows by J.K. Rowling
Vanished (Nick Heller Book 1) by Joseph Finder
Penric’s Dragon by Lois McMaster Bujold
Starshine: Aurora Rising Book One by G. S. Jennsen
The Dragons of Dorcastle (The Pillars of Reality Book 1) by Jack Campbell
I have read and enjoyed many of Campbell’s military science fiction novels.  I decided to give his fantasy series a try now that it is up to three books—although I will probably finish the second book before the third one comes out in November.
This book is set in a world where there are two powerful guilds, the mages who believe that reality is just an illusion to which they can make small changes and the mechanics who make technological devices.  Both guilds teach their members that the other guild relies on tricks and cannot be trusted.  Not surprisingly, this book throws together a young mage and a young mechanic who must work together to survive.  So far, I am enjoying the book and expect it to be the first book I finish in September.
The Girl in the Spider’s Web: A Lisbeth Salander Novel by David Lagercrantz
I have read and reread the original three books in this series.  I am nervous about the new book.  The original author, Stieg Larsson, died at age 50 before his books became international best sellers.  His longtime companion, Eva Gabrielsson, who worked with him on the original novels, has condemned this book.  She has no financial interest in any of the books under Swedish Law because they did not marry and he did not write a will leaving anything to her.  Wikipedia has more interesting details on this subject here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stieg_Larsson On the other hand, I am curious as to where the story will go so I could not resist giving it a try.
In a strange turn, this series of books recently came up in one of my cases.  A client of mine in a state mental hospital told one of the employees that she reminded him of Lisbeth Salander.  Since, apparently no one at the hospital can read books with any significant degree of understanding, they interpreted that as a rape threat.  Idiocy.