Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 1)

This is my first prediction blog of the new season.  Last season, starting 11 games into the season, I created a system to pick the results of all Premier League games.  My theory was that my simple system--which involved no individualized judgment about the clubs and was simply based upon past performance and the recognition that games are most often won by a single goal--would outperform the experts.  It did.

As a basis of comparison, I used the predictions of Mark Lawrenson and Paul Merson.  If they make predictions again this year I will use them for comparison again and they will be linked here and here.  If I find someone else who makes similar predictions on a regular basis I may add them to the comparison.

MY SYSTEM

I have decided not to change my system from last year but I will describe the system again:

I look at the two clubs’ current place in the table.  I subtract three from the home team’s rank.  If the modified table places are within three, I pick a draw.  Otherwise, I pick the team with the best modified table place to win.  (This means that I never pick the home club or the club that currently ranks higher in the table to lose.)

To decide the score, I look at goals allowed by my predicted winning team and the goals scored by my predicted losing team.  If they total more than the games played by both sides I pick a score of 2-1.  Otherwise I pick 1-0. 

If I am picking a draw I will just pick 1-1 because I cannot come up with a simple way to decide between 0-0, 1-1, and 2-2 and I believe a 1-1 draw is the most likely of the three results.

I make some adjustments for when clubs have not played the same number of games.  I will discuss those the first time they become necessary.

Obviously, this system does not work for the first game of the season—or rather it predicts that all games from the first round will end in a 1-1 draw--unless I treat alphabetical order as significant.  Therefore, for the first six games of the season, I will use last year’s table.  I will treat the three newly promoted clubs as being in an unbreakable tie for 18^th place.

Based upon these rules here are my predictions for the first round of games:

Man U-Spurs                       2-1

Cherries*-Aston Villa        1-1

Everton-Watford               2-1

Leicester-Sunderland        2-1

Norwich-Palace                  1-2

Chelsea-Swansea               2-1

Arsenal-West Ham            2-1

Newcastle-Southampton 1-2

Stoke-Liverpool                  1-1

West Brom-Man City        1-2

*I am referring to Bournemouth as the Cherries because their name is inconveniently long.  Our name is the same length but I don’t care.

MAGIC NUMBERS

At some point last year, I started including the magic numbers for Southampton to finish ahead of each club in the league.  The blog explaining magic numbers can be found here.  I will probably start doing that again eventually but there is no point this early in the season.  If anyone cares, our magic number for every other club is currently 115.

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

The points total mathematically needed to avoid relegation is also pretty meaningless right now so I will not post it every week until it has some potential meaning or interest.  Again, If anyone cares, it starts the season at 64 and goes to 63 after the first round if two games end in a draw.  It will drift down quite slowly until the maximum points that the current 18^th place club can earn becomes the decisive factor.