Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 21)

Apparently, Lawrenson is going to be posting the “Sports Analytics Machine’s” picks each round.  Obviously, I have no idea how the SAM makes it decisions, but I do note that it likes to pick scores of 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, and 2-0 so in that narrow sense it does what I do which is pick the mostly likely results by score—except that it has a way to pick 2-0 and my system does not.  The whole point of my doing these predictions was to compare a simplistic mechanical system with picks by “experts” because I thought such a system would be just as good.  Last year it was somewhat better.  This year it is significantly worse than Lawrenson but comparable to Merson.  However, I have no reason to think that my system would be competitive with a properly designed computerized prediction system.  In fact, I expect SAM to continue racking up better predictions records than any of the humans on a fairly consistent basis.

This past round I picked three games out of ten correctly with one correct score for 60 points.  Lawrenson picked six out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 60 points.  His human celebrity guest picked three correctly with no correct scores for 30 points. SAM picked five correctly with two correct scores for 110 points. Merson picked three out of ten correctly with no correct scores for a total of 30 points. 

My current total for the season is 90 out of 200 with for 1320 points.  Lawrenson has picked 96 out of 200 for 1620 points. Merson has picked 90 out of 199 for a total of 1330 points.  SAM has picked 10 out of 20 for 220 points.

Lawrenson and Merson’s new picks can be found here and here, if I find them on time.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Aston Villa-Palace            0-1

Cherries-West Ham         1-2

Newcastle-Man U            0-1

Chelsea-West Brom         1-1

Man City-Everton             2-1

Southampton-Watford   1-1

Stoke-Norwich                  2-1

Swansea-Sunderland      2-1

Liverpool-Arsenal            0-1

Tottenham-Leicester     1-1