Southampton 2016-2017 Premier League/European Squad/Roster Update

When I did the first draft of this article three weeks ago, I began by saying “Given our current standing in the league, it is not impossible that we will have European roster issues next year but it does not seem all that likely.”  Obviously, our European prospects have dramatically improved since then.  Therefore, I will not focus this article exclusively on Premier League roster issues.  (And I will completely ignore Championship roster issues.) 

Please note that, as an American, I find it easier to talk about rosters than squads.  I hope everyone can live with that.

The primary difference between European rosters and Premier League rosters is that the Premier League does not currently distinguish among the types of home grown players.  We are required to have eight home grown players on our roster or we have to leave empty roster spots.  In Europe, eight home grown players are also required but at least four of them have to be trained at the club.  Unlike last year where only Schneiderlin and Isgrove were potential club trained players, this year we have five potential club trained players—at least one of whom, Ward-Prowse—is likely to be useful.

Each club is required to submit two different European roster lists at each registration deadline.  The registration deadlines occur immediately prior to each qualification/playoff round, the group stage, and the knock out stage.  There are limitations on registering players who have already played for someone else in the same competition during the same season, but those limits do not matter right now.

The “B” list is the easier to explain.  A player is eligible to be place on Southampton’s “B” list if they were born on or after 1 January 1995 and were eligible to play for Southampton for any two uninterrupted years since their 15th birthday.  If they are 16, then need to have been registered with Southampton for the last two years.  There is no limit to the number of players who can be registered on the B list.

I went through the official Southampton FC website (and other sources) and came up with a list of 15 B list eligible players for next season.  I chose to stop my list with the under-18s because it is virtually certain that the younger players will not play for us in Europe next season. Very likely all the first and second year scholars would be eligible for the B list.  The club might even include them on the B-List out of a sense of completeness.  B-list players are also available to play in the Premier League without taking up one of the 25 roster spots.

Southampton can register up to 25 players on the A list.  However, at least eight players must be “locally trained” and at least four of those players must be “club-trained.”  The other four can be “association-trained.”

“Club-trained” players are ones who have been registered with Southampton for three full seasons between ages 15 and 21.  The seasons can include the ones where the player turns 15 or 21.  Unlike this time last year when Southampton had only two club trained players, we now have five.  Only Ward-Prowse has seen significant playing time, but, if we qualify for Europe, I would expect three of the other four to be with the club next season unless they are viewed as literally being worse that nothing.

An “association-trained” player is one who has been registered with one or more clubs from the same association for three seasons or 36 months between the ages of 15 and 21.  Obviously, all club-trained players are also association-trained players for the nation in which the club is registered.  If a club does not have enough club-trained or association-trained players, it must leave the roster spots empty.  That is why we entered Europe last year with three empty club trained roster spots.

The following is a list of current Southampton players sorted into their appropriate categories for the 2016-2017 season. I have taken the liberty of omitting Stekelenburg based upon my belief that there is virtually no chance that he will remain with the club next season.  I have, however, left other players on the list whose contracts are expiring—for example, Kelvin Davis—because they could theoretically remain with the club and we are unlikely to lose them unless we want to lose them.  I have used this Saintsweb post as a reference for contract expiration dates. 

SQUAD LIST

                                                                A LIST

B-List                                Other                                    Association Trained                 Club Trained

Barnes                             Clasie                                    Austin                                           Gape

Britt                                  Fonte                                   Bertrand                                       Isgrove

Debayo                            Gardos                                 Davis, K                                         Stephens

Flannigan                        Gazzaniga                            Davis, S                                         Turnbull

Gallagher                        Juanmi                                 Forster                                          Ward-Prowse

Hesketh                          Mane                                    Long

Little                                Martina                                Rodriguez

McCarthy                       Pelle

McQueen                       Romeu

Mugabi                            Soares

Reed                                Tadic

Seager                             Van Dijk

Sims                                 Wanyama

Targett                            Yoshida

Wood                                   

Thus, for Premier League purposes, we have twelve home grown players and 14 other players for a total of 26 players who would have to be registered on the 25 man Premier League roster in order to be eligible to play.  That is, obviously, not a problem because Gape, Turnbull, Stephens, and Isgrove will almost certainly not be taking roster spots unless there is no one else with whom to fill those roster spots.  If we qualify for Europe, the club will probably fill up its club trained roster spots with Ward-Prowse and three of Gape, Stephens, Turnbull, and Isgrove.

In any case, the club’s current roster is, technically, just fine for Europe.  No changes need to be made to fill the 25 European roster slots.  Only one current player needs to be left out.  The same is true of the club’s Premier League roster.

Obviously, this is not realistic.  There is no chance that we will not release or sell some players in the summer transfer window.  We will also buy some—especially if we qualify for Europe.

Right now many people assume that Mane, Pelle, and Wanyama will be gone this summer.  I have no way of knowing whether this is true but I will assume that it is.  I also do not know if the club continues to view Stephens, Gape, Isgrove and Turnball as Premier League prospects.  If we qualify for Europe, we will probably retain three of them for the European roster.  If we do not, the club might keep them on the roster next year or they might be transferred, released, or loaned out. Kelvin Davis’ contract is expiring this year and, at his age, another renewal is less likely.  This is our hypothetical roster without Davis, Mane, Pelle, and Wanyama

Other                                    Association Trained                         Club Trained

Clasie                                    Austin                                                   Gape

Fonte                                    Bertrand                                              Isgrove

Gardos                                 Davis, S                                                 Stephens

Gazzaniga                            Forster                                                 Turnbull

Juanmi                                 Long                                                      Ward-Prowse

Martina                                Rodriguez

Romeu

Soares

Tadic

Van Dijk

Yoshida                                                               

This leaves us with 22 filled Premier League roster spots leaving room for three more players who need not be home grown. Since we are unlikely to use up four roster spots on the club trained players if we are not in Europe, we actually have 18 filled rosters spots leaving room for seven more players—one of whom needs to be home grown.

If Mane, Pelle, and Wanyama stay we have exactly 25 players.  However, we will not use up 5 roster spots on the club trained players so we really have four openings—one of whom must be home grown.

If we qualify for Europe our situation is somewhat different.  Without Pelle, Mane, and Wanyama we would still use the full four roster slots for club trained players leaving openings for four players—none of who need be home grown.  If all three stay, we only have one opening.

Our European roster (if we have one) and our Premier League roster do not have to be exactly the same.  Even if Gape, Turnball, and Stephens, for example, are placed on the European roster as club-trained players they do not have to be put on the Premier League roster.  Instead, we could use three other players—only one of whom need be home grown.  I do not know whether we could or would want to sign players for our Premier League roster who would not be on our European roster.

WHAT DO WE NEED

In the following discussion I use the players’ ages as of 1 July 2016.

GOALKEEPERS

Based upon my assumptions, we only have two first team goal keepers.  While the club might be satisfied with Gazzaniga as the back up to Forster, I am not convinced that the club would be satisfied with an under 21 player as the back up to Gazzaniga—especially since we just released our more senior under-21 goalkeeper.  On the other hand, it would also be difficult to sign anyone good as a third string goalkeeper so I have no idea what will happen.  Perhaps this means that Kelvin Davis will get a contract for one more year.

That being said, it is time to sign Forster to an extended long term contract.  His contract expires in 2018 so this is the season to extend him unless he is going to be sold this summer.  I would hope that Forster would recognize that if he goes to a bigger club, he will not be their starting goalkeeper.  On the other hand, if De Gea goes to Real Madrid this summer, it could start a chain reaction that moves Forster to Tottenham or some other richer club.  All the more reason to extend his contract sooner rather than later.

DEFENDERS

Van Dijk looks good for the foreseeable future. His contract expires in 2020.

If Gardos returns from his injury and is able to play at a Premier League level, it is possible that the club will view itself as being set at central defender.  I think this would be a mistake.

Fonte is 32 years old and will turn 33 next season.  While he might have another good year or two in him, it is not smart to assume that.  At his age, it is time for his performances to start to drop. His knowledge and experience will, at some point, no longer be able to compensate for his increasing physical deficiencies.  Moreover, older players are generally more likely to get injured and often take longer to recover from injuries.  The Club needs to be prepared to replace Fonte if he starts to fade.

Based upon what we have seen, none of the other defenders are ready to assume the starting first team role.  Possibly, a healthy Gardos could develop to that point—certainly he was signed in the hopes that would happen.  However, Gardos only has two years left on his contract.  The club has to figure out whether to offer him an extension without knowing how good he really is or risk losing him cheaply if turns out to be good next season.  The rest of this season should be critical to assessing him for the future, but if things go right he won’t get much playing time.

Possibly Stephens or Turnbull will develop into  a Premier League defender, but given the fact that they are not currently playing at the Premier League level and Stephens did not get many games at the Championship level, I do not think that is a reasonable assumption.  The decision to loan him to League One Coventry City for the rest of this season certainly suggests that he will not be ready for Premier League football next season.

Yoshida also has only two years left on his contract.  I assume he can probably be signed again without much difficulty.  He is unlikely to be snatched away by a bigger club.  However, it is clear that we do not want him as one of our two starting central defenders.

The Club probably believes it is ok at fullback.  I certainly don’t believe the rumors that Bertrand will move to Manchester United.  He would only play there until Shaw is healthy and I thought he had enough of sitting on the bench at a big club.  Targett, who is contracted through 2019 is undoubtedly perceived as an adequate back up—or more if we stick with the 3-5-2.

Cedric has been improving and is contracted through 2019.

Martina’s contract expires in 2017.  I assume no one is too worried about that.  It probably means that the club would be happy to sign a quality right back but is ok with Martina and Yoshida for 2016-2017.

MIDFIELD

We are in good shape in the midfield—even if Wanyama goes.  Clasie and Ward-Prowse are both signed until 2020.

Romeu needs to have his contract extended this summer.  The fact that he was only signed to a three year contract may suggest that the club or Romeu is skeptical about the long term nature of the relationship.  The club needs to know if Romeu really wants to stay here and should find a replacement if he does not.

Steven Davis is also a potential problem because he 31—old by midfielder standards.  Given how much of his game involves constant motion it would not be unreasonable to expect him to start fading at any time.  His contract expires in 2018.  The club probably will worry about whether they want to extend the contract in 2017 but no one should assume he can play as often in the future as he has in the past.

ATTACKERS

If Mane and Pelle both go we will need to add at least one player here.  Obviously, Austin is a new strength here having signed until 2020 when he will be 30.

Long is 29 and only has two years left on his contract.  Do we want to extend the contract?  He is on fairly high wages.  If we re-sign him, by the end of the contract we will be paying a lot of money for a 32 or 33 year old striker whose primary strength is his physical endurance and willingness to run for 90 minutes.  What are the chances he will still be able to do that in April 2020?  We could sell him this summer and get decent money given how he has suddenly become the flavor of the month but then we would have sold our newly acquired depth at striker.

Juanmi is still a question mark.  Is he the next Mayuka or will he develop as expected and hoped?  Obviously, there is no way to know but it would be irresponsible to assume that he will be good enough to play regularly next year.

Likewise, we still do not know how good Rodriguez will be.  It would be unrealistic to assume he will ever be as good as he was.  It may be unrealistic to assume he will be good enough to play regularly next season.  If he can, it will be a bonus.

Tadic is 27 years old and his contract expires in 2018.  He is probably not hugely in demand by bigger clubs, but it might be a good idea to try to extend his contract this summer.  If he will not sign, the club will know they need to start looking for his replacement.

We also seem to be short of attacking wingers—unless the 3-5-2 is our new permanent formation and we do not need them.

Thus, it appears that we need:

A back up goal keeper

A centerback who is better than Yoshida and younger than Fonte

A right back who can challenge Soares for playing time

A midfielder who can take over Steven Davis’ role and an extension to Romeu’s or Wanyama’s contract (or both)

A replacement for Pelle and Mane—if they are not going to stay for another year

An attacking winger

Thus, by my calculations we need six players to fill four European roster spots.  If Martina and Yoshida remain the back up right backs, then we only need five players.

There is no similar problem if we do not qualify for Europe because we can leave three club trained players off the roster.  We could leave four off the roster if one of our incoming players is home grown.  This would leave us with more than enough openings.