Friday, March 18, 2016

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 31) With Magic Numbers and Relegation Stuff

This past two rounds I picked seven games out of 15 correctly with one correct scores for 100 points.  Lawrenson picked seven out of 15 correctly with one correct scores for 100 points.   Merson picked six out of 15 correctly with two correct scores for a total of 120 points. 

My current total for the season is 130 out of 293 with for 1900 points.  Lawrenson has picked 144 out of 293 for 2140 points. Merson has picked 131 out of 289 for a total of 1920 points
Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here.are not linked this week because I am running late and want to watch another episode of Daredevil before I go to bed. 
PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  I had to make adjustments for unequal numbers of games played by using a table calculated by points per game rather than by current position on the table.   The only effect of this was to cause the Southampton-Liverpool game to be picked as draw rather than a Southampton victory. Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:
Everton-Arsenal                1-2
Chelsea-West Ham          1-1
Palace-Leicester                1-2
Watford-Stoke                  1-1
West Brom-Norwich        2-1
Swansea-Aston Villa         2-1
Newcastle-Sunderland     1-1
Southampton-Liverpool    1-1
Man City-Man U                2-1
Tottenham-Cherries          2-1
RELEGATION AVOIDANCE
It now takes 50 points to guarantee relegation avoidance.
MAGIC NUMBERS
These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.)
Leicester City                     44
Tottenham                         40
Arsenal                               37
Manchester City               35
Manchester United          31
West Ham                           33
Liverpool                             31
Watford                               21
Stoke City                            24
Everton                               25
Chelsea                               24
Crystal Palace                    17
West Brom                         23
Bournemouth                   19
Swansea City                     14
Norwich City                       6
Newcastle                             8
Sunderland                           9
Aston Villa                           -3
So we have clinched 19th place.  Leicester, the other hand, has clinched 14th place.

Friday, March 11, 2016

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 30) Special Mold Edition

I have a mold issue in my home so I don't have time to do the full prediction post that I normally would.  I am simply posting the predictions themselves.  Fortunately, it is a short weekend.

Norwich-Man City           1-2
Cherries-Swansea            2-1
Stoke-Southampton          2-1
Aston Villa-Tottenham      0-1
Leicester-Newcastle          2-1

Friday, March 4, 2016

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 29) With Magic Numbers and Relegation Stuff

This past round I picked four games out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.  Lawrenson picked five out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 50 points.   Merson picked four out of ten correctly with one correct scores for a total of 70 points.

My current total for the season is 123 out of 278 with for 1800 points.  Lawrenson has picked 129 out of 278 for 1240 points. Merson has picked 125 out of 274 for a total of 1800 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 
PREDICTIONS
My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:
Tottenham-Arsenal                        2-1
Chelsea-Stoke                                  1-1
Everton-West Ham                         1-1
Man City-Aston Villa                       1-0
Newcastle-Cherries                        1-1
Southampton-Sunderland           2-1
Swansea-Norwich                           2-1
Watford-Leicester                           1-2
Palace-Liverpool                               1-1
West Brom-Man U                          0-1
RELEGATION AVOIDANCE
It now takes 55 points to guarantee relegation avoidance.  It will drop this weekend unless two of Newcastle, Norwich, and Sunderland win.
MAGIC NUMBERS
These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here:
Leicester City                     48
Tottenham                         45
Arsenal                                42
Manchester City                41
Manchester United           38
West Ham                           37
Liverpool                             35
Watford                               28
Stoke City                            33
Everton                                32
Chelsea                                30
Crystal Palace                    24
West Brom                         27
Bournemouth                   23
Swansea City                     21
Norwich City                      15
Newcastle                           18
Sunderland                         15
Aston Villa                           07