Magic Numbers and Relegation Safety

Last February I started posting Southampton’s magic numbers and keeping track of how many points were needed to mathematically secure safety from relegation.  I have delayed starting those posts for this season by a few weeks because the lower point total for the first place club and the higher point total for the 18^th place club mean that safety has not yet been mathematically secured by any club.  That could change this weekend when Leicester could become mathematically safe from relegation.

Magic Numbers

My discussion of magic numbers from last year can be found here.  I do not need to repeat it in any detail.  Suffice it to say that Southampton’s magic number with respect to each club is the number of points we need to earn plus the number of points they need to drop for us to finish ahead of them.  Here are our current magic numbers listed by the current order of the table:

Leicester City                       50

Tottenham                          48

Arsenal                                 48

Manchester City                 44

Manchester United            38

West Ham                            37

Liverpool                              35

Watford                               33

Stoke City                            33

Everton                                32

Chelsea                                30

Crystal Palace                     29

West Brom                         29

Bournemouth                    25

Swansea City                     24

Norwich City                     21

Newcastle                          21

Sunderland                       20

Aston Villa                         13

This illustrates the difficulty we have in both winning the league and getting relegated.  We can only earn 36 more points on our own.  That means that Leicester would have to drop 14 out of 36 points for us to pass them.  Both possibilities seem unlikely.  Similarly, even if we don’t earn any more points, it is seems likely that either Newcastle or Norwich will manage to drop 21 out of 36 points—after all they have already dropped 54 out of 78 points.  On the other hand, anywhere from 4^th to 14^th still seems obtainable.

RELEGATION CALCULATIONS

Currently, a club needs 58 points to be mathematically safe from relegation but that will change this weekend unless two of Sunderland, Swansea, or Norwich win. Depending on the various combinations the new number could be 56 or 57.  If it ends up at 56, Leicester is, of course, safe if they beat Norwich.   No one else can clinch safety this weekend although Tottenham and Arsenal come pretty close if they win.