Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 31) With Magic Numbers and Relegation Stuff

This past two rounds I picked seven games out of 15 correctly with one correct scores for 100 points.  Lawrenson picked seven out of 15 correctly with one correct scores for 100 points.   Merson picked six out of 15 correctly with two correct scores for a total of 120 points. 

My current total for the season is 130 out of 293 with for 1900 points.  Lawrenson has picked 144 out of 293 for 2140 points. Merson has picked 131 out of 289 for a total of 1920 points

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here.are not linked this week because I am running late and want to watch another episode of Daredevil before I go to bed. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  I had to make adjustments for unequal numbers of games played by using a table calculated by points per game rather than by current position on the table.   The only effect of this was to cause the Southampton-Liverpool game to be picked as draw rather than a Southampton victory. Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Everton-Arsenal                1-2

Chelsea-West Ham          1-1

Palace-Leicester                1-2

Watford-Stoke                  1-1

West Brom-Norwich        2-1

Swansea-Aston Villa         2-1

Newcastle-Sunderland     1-1

Southampton-Liverpool    1-1

Man City-Man U                2-1

Tottenham-Cherries          2-1

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It now takes 50 points to guarantee relegation avoidance.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.)

Leicester City                     44

Tottenham                         40

Arsenal                               37

Manchester City               35

Manchester United          31

West Ham                           33

Liverpool                             31

Watford                               21

Stoke City                            24

Everton                               25

Chelsea                               24

Crystal Palace                    17

West Brom                         23

Bournemouth                   19

Swansea City                     14

Norwich City                       6

Newcastle                             8

Sunderland                           9

Aston Villa                           -3

So we have clinched 19^th place.  Leicester, the other hand, has clinched 14^th place.

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 30) Special Mold Edition

I have a mold issue in my home so I don't have time to do the full prediction post that I normally would.  I am simply posting the predictions themselves.  Fortunately, it is a short weekend.

Norwich-Man City           1-2
Cherries-Swansea            2-1
Stoke-Southampton          2-1
Aston Villa-Tottenham      0-1
Leicester-Newcastle          2-1

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 29) With Magic Numbers and Relegation Stuff

This past round I picked four games out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.  Lawrenson picked five out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 50 points.   Merson picked four out of ten correctly with one correct scores for a total of 70 points.

My current total for the season is 123 out of 278 with for 1800 points.  Lawrenson has picked 129 out of 278 for 1240 points. Merson has picked 125 out of 274 for a total of 1800 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Tottenham-Arsenal                        2-1

Chelsea-Stoke                                  1-1

Everton-West Ham                         1-1

Man City-Aston Villa                       1-0

Newcastle-Cherries                        1-1

Southampton-Sunderland           2-1

Swansea-Norwich                           2-1

Watford-Leicester                           1-2

Palace-Liverpool                               1-1

West Brom-Man U                          0-1

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It now takes 55 points to guarantee relegation avoidance.  It will drop this weekend unless two of Newcastle, Norwich, and Sunderland win.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here:

Leicester City                     48

Tottenham                         45

Arsenal                                42

Manchester City                41

Manchester United           38

West Ham                           37

Liverpool                             35

Watford                               28

Stoke City                            33

Everton                                32

Chelsea                                30

Crystal Palace                    24

West Brom                         27

Bournemouth                   23

Swansea City                     21

Norwich City                      15

Newcastle                           18

Sunderland                         15

Aston Villa                           07

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 28) With Magic Numbers and Relegation Stuff

This past round I picked four games out of eight correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.  Lawrenson picked five out of eight correctly with no correct scores for 50 points.   Merson picked five out of eight correctly with no corrects score for a total of 50 points.

My current total for the season is 119 out of 268 with for 1760 points.  Lawrenson has picked 124 out of 268 for 1990 points. Merson has picked 121 out of 264 for a total of 1730 points

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Aston Villa-Everton         1-2

Cherries-Southampton  1-2

Leicester-West Brom     2-1

Norwich-Chelsea             1-1

Sunderland-Palace          1-1

Arsenal-Swansea             1-0

Stoke-Newcastle             2-1

West Ham-Tottenham   1-1

Liverpool-Man City          1-1

Man U-Watford                2-1

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

Leicester is now safe since it take just 56 points to mathematically avoid relegation. Tottenham will reach safety with a win and could reach safety with a loss or draw.  Arsenal could reach safety with a win. The safe number will drop further in this round unless Newcastle, Norwich, Swansea, and Bournemouth all win.  Well actually if Swansea or Bournemouth draw (but not both) the number will remain unchanged as well.  If all four of them lose the number will drop to 53.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here:

Leicester City                     50

Tottenham                         48

Arsenal                                45

Manchester City               44

Manchester United           38

West Ham                           37

Liverpool                             35

Watford                               31

Stoke City                            33

Everton                               32

Chelsea                               30

Crystal Palace                    26

West Brom                         29

Bournemouth                    23

Swansea City                     21

Norwich City                      18

Newcastle                           21

Sunderland                         17

Aston Villa                           10

Magic Numbers and Relegation Safety

Last February I started posting Southampton’s magic numbers and keeping track of how many points were needed to mathematically secure safety from relegation.  I have delayed starting those posts for this season by a few weeks because the lower point total for the first place club and the higher point total for the 18^th place club mean that safety has not yet been mathematically secured by any club.  That could change this weekend when Leicester could become mathematically safe from relegation.

Magic Numbers

My discussion of magic numbers from last year can be found here.  I do not need to repeat it in any detail.  Suffice it to say that Southampton’s magic number with respect to each club is the number of points we need to earn plus the number of points they need to drop for us to finish ahead of them.  Here are our current magic numbers listed by the current order of the table:

Leicester City                       50

Tottenham                          48

Arsenal                                 48

Manchester City                 44

Manchester United            38

West Ham                            37

Liverpool                              35

Watford                               33

Stoke City                            33

Everton                                32

Chelsea                                30

Crystal Palace                     29

West Brom                         29

Bournemouth                    25

Swansea City                     24

Norwich City                     21

Newcastle                          21

Sunderland                       20

Aston Villa                         13

This illustrates the difficulty we have in both winning the league and getting relegated.  We can only earn 36 more points on our own.  That means that Leicester would have to drop 14 out of 36 points for us to pass them.  Both possibilities seem unlikely.  Similarly, even if we don’t earn any more points, it is seems likely that either Newcastle or Norwich will manage to drop 21 out of 36 points—after all they have already dropped 54 out of 78 points.  On the other hand, anywhere from 4^th to 14^th still seems obtainable.

RELEGATION CALCULATIONS

Currently, a club needs 58 points to be mathematically safe from relegation but that will change this weekend unless two of Sunderland, Swansea, or Norwich win. Depending on the various combinations the new number could be 56 or 57.  If it ends up at 56, Leicester is, of course, safe if they beat Norwich.   No one else can clinch safety this weekend although Tottenham and Arsenal come pretty close if they win.

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 27)

This past round I picked three games out of ten correctly with one correct scores for 60 points.  Lawrenson picked three out of ten correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.   Merson picked three out of ten correctly with two correct score for a total of 90 points. 

My current total for the season is 115 out of 260 with for 1720 points.  Lawrenson has picked 119 out of 260 for 1940 points. Merson has picked 114 out of 256 for a total of 1680 points

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

West Ham-Sunderland   2-1

Leicester-Norwich           2-1

Southampton-Chelsea    2-1

Stoke-Aston Villa             1-0

Watford-Cherries            2-1

West Brom-Palace          1-1

Man U-Arsenal                1-1

Tottenham-Swansea      1-0

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 26)

This past round I picked three games out of ten correctly with two correct scores for 90 points.  Lawrenson picked six out of ten correctly with two correct scores for 120 points.   Merson picked three out of ten correctly with one correct score for a total of 60 points. 

My current total for the season is 112 out of 250 with for 1660 points.  Lawrenson has picked 116 out of 250 for 1910 points. Merson has picked 111 out of 246 for a total of 1590 points

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Sunderland-Man U          1-2

Cherries-Stoke                  1-1

Palace-Watford                1-1

Everton-West Brom         2-1

Norwich-West Ham         1-2

Swansea-Southampton   0-1

Chelsea-Newcastle           2-1

Arsenal-Leicester              1-1

Aston Villa-Liverpool       1-2

Man City-Tottenham       1-1