Pointless European Qualification Analysis

There has been a pointless, ongoing discussion on the Saintsweb Forum about the European qualification rules in various unlikely scenarios.  It is my belief that the club that finishes in fifth place in a county like England which has four automatic qualifiers for the Champion’s League will always qualify for Europe.  However, some posters on Saintweb believe that it is theoretically possible for the fifth place finisher not to qualify for Europe.  This blog is my attempt to resolve the dispute using the relevant UEFA rules.  I am using the UEFA Champions League rules for 2015-2016.  I believe these rules remain in effect for the next two seasons.  For the purposes of this article, I will assume I am talking about England, but the same analysis would apply to any association that had four automatic qualifiers into the Champions League.

A specific example of the circumstances under which some people believe the fifth place club could be excluded from Europe is when the sixth place finisher wins the Champion’s League, the seventh place finisher wins the Europa League, the eighth place finisher wins the FA cup, and the ninth place finisher wins the Capital One cup.  In other words, this scenario:

1. Don't win any cup
2. Don't win any cup
3. Don't win any cup
4. Don't win any cup
5. Don't win any cup
6. Win CL
7. Win EL
8. Win FA Cup
9. Win C1 Cup

It is my opinion that under these circumstances the first nine clubs all qualify for Europe.  I will work through the UEFA rules to show why this is correct.

Annex A of the rules provides the standard answer when there are no unusual circumstances.  Applying these rules to the above scenario we start with these results:

1. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
2. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
3. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
4. Don't win any cup       CL playoff phase
5. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
6. Win CL
7. Win EL
8. Win FA Cup                   EL group phase
9. Win C1 Cup                   EL 3^rd qualifying round

To determine what happens with the Champions League title holder we have to look at Rule 3.03 which states:

The UEFA Champions League titleholder is guaranteed a place in the group stage even if it does not qualify for the competition through its domestic championship.  If the UEFA Champions League titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League through one of its domestic competitions, the number of places to which its association is entitled in the UEFA Europa League is decreased by one. The created vacancy is rebalanced accordingly and priority for the UEFA Europa League is given to the domestic cup winners (in accordance with the entry stage as per the access list).

Standing on its own, this rule makes it clear that if the Champion’s League title holder also qualified for the Europa League, England would lose one of its Europa League entries.  Implicit in this rule, in my opinion, is a determination that if the Champion’s League titleholder does not qualify for Europe at all, there would be no loss of a Europa League spot.  If this were not the case, it would make more sense to write the rule as simply stating that if the Champion’s League’s titleholder does not qualify for the Champions League through domestic competition, the association will always lose one place in the Europa League.

This means that we our scenario now goes:

1. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
2. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
3. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
4. Don't win any cup       CL playoff phase
5. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
6. Win CL                           CL group phase
7. Win EL
8. Win FA Cup                   EL group phase
9. Win C1 Cup                   EL 3^rd qualifying round

Rule 3.04 provides:

The UEFA Europa League titleholder is guaranteed a place in the competition as a minimum in the play-offs. It will have priority filling a vacancy created in the group stage or in the play-offs by the UEFA Champions League titleholder.

This rule is clear.  The Europa League titleholder always enters the Champion’s League and has a priority filling a vacancy created at the group stage by the Champion’s League titleholder.  In our hypothetical scenario, no such vacancy exists because our Champion’s League qualifier is also from same association and did not earn a Champion’s League place on its own.  This means in our scenario the Europa League Titleholder would enter in the playoff rounds of the Champion’s league.  So we are now here:

1. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
2. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
3. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
4. Don't win any cup       CL playoff phase
5. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
6. Win CL                             CL group phase
7. Win EL                             CL playoff phase
8. Win FA Cup                   EL group phase
9. Win C1 Cup                    EL 3^rd qualifying round

Rules 3.05 and 3.06 make it clear that the Europa League titleholder gets to play directly in the group phase if it qualifies for the group phase through its domestic competition and that it gets to play in the playoff phase if it qualifies for the playoff phase directly through domestic competition.  In our scenario neither of these two circumstances occurs. 

Rule 3.07 details what would happen in all other possible situations.  It is confusing, but I think I have sorted it out.  The relevant scenario is the fourth one on the list where there is “No vacancy in the group stage or play-offs” because the “UCL titleholder does not qualify for the competition and comes from an association ranked 1 to 12 in the access list.”  In our scenario, England is ranked 1, 2, or 3 on the access list.  Therefore, the Europa League title holder enters the Champions League in the Play-offs on the League path.  So there is no change in the current list.

Rule 3.08 provides:

Exceptionally, an association may be represented by five clubs in the competition if the UEFA Champions League and/or UEFA Europa League titleholder does not also qualify through its domestic championship.

This tells us that our current scenario is wrong because we have six clubs in the Champions League and, implicit in 3.08, is a five club limit on Champions League entries from a single association.  However, we have not yet encountered the rule that tells us what to do about this problem.  Rule 3.09 is that rule:

If the UEFA Champions League titleholder and the UEFA Europa League titleholder come from the same association and do not qualify for the competition through their domestic championship, one of the following scenarios applies:

It then goes on to list six possible scenarios.  The third scenario is the one that applies to our hypothetical:

If the association is entitled to four places in the UEFA Champions League and neither titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League through its domestic championship, the lowest-placed of the association’s UEFA Champions League representatives is automatically transferred to the UEFA Europa League (into the UEFA Europa League group stage and the access list will be rebalanced accordingly). In this case, the association of the titleholders is entitled to one additional place (total of five) in the UEFA Champions League and one additional place (total of four) in the UEFA Europa League.

This rule clearly states that the association can have nine total entries into Europe.  Applying this rule to our hypothetical scenarios we end up like this:

1. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
2. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
3. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
4. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
5. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
6. Win CL                             CL group phase
7. Win EL                             CL playoff phase
8. Win FA Cup                   EL group phase
9. Win C1 Cup                    EL 3^rd qualifying round

The one thing that is not clear to me is what rebalancing the access list “accordingly” means exactly.  There is a potential reference to this subject in Annex A which states:

If the access list needs to be adjusted once all the participants are known and admitted, priority for the UEFA Champions League will be given to the winners of the domestic championship (in accordance with the entry stage as per the access list). The adjusted list will be announced by circular letter.

This suggests that the actual process of rebalancing the access list is not a simple one and cannot be decided until the actual facts are known.  I would guess that this means that someone gets kicked out of the Europa League group phase to make room for the extra club from England.  Possibly, it would be the 5^th place English club being bounced out of the group phase.  In any case, this would cause a cascade effect on all the earlier qualifying rounds and could, I suppose, bounce England’s Capital One cup winner down to the 2^nd qualifying round.  On the other hand, the rebalancing might always be to the detriment of lower ranked associations.  I simply don’t know and haven’t found anything in the rules that addresses this issue.  (I have not read the entire 94 pages of the rules—just the portions that seemed potentially relevant.) 

I think the best way of understanding the European qualification rules is to understand that both European title holders will always qualify for the Champions League.  Also, any club that qualifies for Europe through their domestic competition cannot lose their place in Europe because another club from the same association wins a European title.  However, a club can be dropped from the Champions League into the Europa League or placed into an earlier qualifying found because another club from their association (or from some other association) won a European title.

Finally, I am going to try to blog more regularly during this off season (or should I say close season). I intend to devote an hour a day to my blog.  This does not mean I will blog every day because some of my blog posts require more work than an hour and also because I am certain there were be days when I cannot spend any time on the blog—for example, when I am out of town on vacation (holiday) or work (work).

In any case, if any regular (or irregular) readers of my blog have any suggestions for subjects they would like me to write about, I would certainly appreciate the suggestions.

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 38) FINAL PREDICTIONS With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This is the final prediction post of the season.  I can predict both the mid-week games and the final games because the results of the mid-week games will not change the predictions for the final weekend—except for the score in the Man U-Bournemouth game.

This past week I picked six games out of ten correctly with one correct score for 90 points.  Lawrenson picked three out of ten correctly with two correct scores for 90 points.   Merson picked five out of ten correctly with one correct score for a total of 80 points.

My current total for the season is 175 out of 366 with for 2620 points.  Lawrenson has picked 183 out of 366 for 2850 points. Merson has picked 165 out of 356 for a total of 2500 points

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s mid-week predictions can be found here and here if I remember to add the information once it becomes available.  Same goes for their weekend predictions here and here.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the final round of games:

West Ham-Man U            1-1

Norwich-Watford            1-1

Sunderland-Everton       1-1

Liverpool-Chelsea            2-1

Arsenal-Aston Villa          1-0

Chelsea-Leicester            1-2

Everton-Norwich             2-1

Man U-Cherries            2-1 (1-0 if Man U keeps a clean sheet in its mid-week game)

Newcastle-Tottenham  1-2

Southampton-Palace     2-1

Stoke-West Ham              1-1

Swansea-Man City          1-2

Watford-Sunderland      2-1

West Brom-Liverpool     1-2

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It now takes 38 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. Sunderland can end it all by winning one of their two remaining games.

We can still finish as low as 8^th or as high as 5^th place.   If we tie with Manchester United we would beat them on goal difference.  Ties with Liverpool and West Ham are more problematic.

MAGIC NUMBERS

Normally I provide an imbedded link to where I explain magic numbers but the embedding isn't working so you can find it here:

http://redsloscf.blogspot.com/2016/02/magic-numbers-and-relegation-safety.html

 (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                     24

Tottenham                         14

Arsenal                                 12

Manchester City                 9

Manchester United           10

West Ham                             6

Liverpool                               5

Watford                               -9

Stoke City                            -8

Everton                               -9

Chelsea                                -5

Crystal Palace                    -14

West Brom                         -12

Bournemouth                   -14

Swansea City                     -10

Norwich City                      -21

Newcastle                           -22

Sunderland                         -18

Aston Villa                           -33

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 37) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past week I picked five games out of ten correctly with two correct scores for 110 points.  Lawrenson picked seven out of ten correctly with three correct scores for 160 points.   Merson picked five out of ten correctly with two correct scores for a total of 110 points.

My current total for the season is 169 out of 356 with for 2530 points.  Lawrenson has picked 180 out of 356 for 2760 points. Merson has picked 160 out of 346 for a total of 2420 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here if I remember to add the information once it becomes available. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Norwich-Man U                               1-2

Aston Villa-Newcastle                    1-1

Cherries-West Brom                       1-1

Palace-Stoke                                      1-1

Sunderland-Chelsea                       1-2

West Ham-Swansea                       2-1

Leicester-Everton                            2-1

Tottenham-Southampton            2-1

Liverpool-Watford                           2-1

Man City-Arsenal                             1-1

I was hoping to post my mid-week predictions here now but, unfortunately, three of them can be affected by the weekend’s results.  Only Liverpool over Chelsea 2-1 is fixed.

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It now takes 41 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. Only Crystal Palace remains at theoretical risk of the clubs that are effectively safe.

We can still finish as low as tied with Chelsea for 9^th or as high as 5^th place.   If we tie with Chelsea, goal differential could go either way, but we are very likely to lose if it comes down to goals scored.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                     27

Tottenham                         20

Arsenal                                17

Manchester City                14

Manchester United           13

West Ham                           12

Liverpool                               8

Watford                               -3

Stoke City                            -2

Everton                                -3

Chelsea                                 1

Crystal Palace                    -11

West Brom                         -7

Bournemouth                   -9

Swansea City                     -7

Norwich City                      -15

Newcastle                           -17

Sunderland                         -15

Aston Villa                           -28

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 36) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past week I picked three games out of seven correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.  Lawrenson picked three out of seven correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.   Merson picked three out of seven correctly with zero correct scores for a total of 30 points.

My current total for the season is 164 out of 346 with for 2420 points.  Lawrenson has picked 173 out of 346 for 2600 points. Merson has picked 155 out of 336 for a total of 2310 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here if I remember to add the information after it becomes available.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Everton-Cherries             2-1

Newcastle-Palace            1-1

Stoke-Sunderland           2-1

Watford-Aston Villa        1-0

West Brom-West Ham   1-2

Arsenal-Norwich              2-1

Swansea-Liverpool          1-2

Man U-Leicester              1-1

Southampton-Man City   1-1

Chelsea-Tottenham        1-2

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

Yet again, it still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. That number will drop unless both Sunderland and Norwich win.  If either club draws, the number drops to 42.  If either club loses, it drops to 41.    We can still finish as low as 10^th or as high as 5^th place. However, finishing ahead of Manchester United requires virtually everything to go right for us—we win all three of our remaining games and they lose three out of four, for example.  Finishing ahead of Liverpool or West Ham is only slightly easier.  In other words, European football is quite unlikely and  could be virtually impossible by the end of the weekend.  A win against Manchester City guarantees us no worse than 9^th place—8^th place if Chelsea loses.

Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than second place and will guarantee themselves the title if they win, Tottenham lose, or they both draw.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                    32

Tottenham                        25

Arsenal                               20

Manchester City               20

Manchester United          18

West Ham                           15

Liverpool                             14

Watford                               0

Stoke City                            3

Everton                                0

Chelsea                                6

Crystal Palace                    -5

West Brom                         -1

Bournemouth                   -3

Swansea City                     -4

Norwich City                      -9

Newcastle                           -14

Sunderland                         -10

Aston Villa                           -22

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 35) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past mid-week I picked four games out of five correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.  Lawrenson picked four out of five correctly with two correct scores for 100 points.   Merson picked zero  out of zero correctly with zero correct scores for a total of 0 points.  However, I failed to give him credit for both of his correct weekend scores so his season point total increases by 30.

My current total for the season is 161 out of 339 with for 2390 points.  Lawrenson has picked 170 out of 339 for 2570 points. Merson has picked 152 out of 329 for a total of 2280 points

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Man City-Stoke                   2-1

Aston Villa-Southampton  0-1     

Cherries-Chelsea                 1-1

Liverpool-Newcastle           2-1

Sunderland-Arsenal            1-2

Leicester-Swansea              1-0

Tottenham-West Brom     1-0

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. That number will drop to 43 if Sunderland loses.  We can still finish as low as 14^th or as high as fourth place which seems unlikely. A win against Aston Villa guarantees us no worse than 10^th place.  Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than third place so they are already in the group stage of the Champions League.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. I made some mistakes in the mid-week magic number post.  I apologize to the half dozen people who might have read them.  (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                    35

Tottenham                        30

Arsenal                               25

Manchester City               23

Manchester United          21

West Ham                          18

Liverpool                            19

Watford                                3

Stoke City                             9

Everton                                 3

Chelsea                                 9

Crystal Palace                    -2

West Brom                           2

Bournemouth                     3

Swansea City                       2

Norwich City                      -6

Newcastle                           -9

Sunderland                         -5

Aston Villa                           -16

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 34.5) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

These are my mid-week predictions—all adjusted for uneven number of games played.

This past weekend I picked three games out of 10 correctly with two correct scores for 90 points.  Lawrenson picked four out of 10 correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.   Merson picked five out of 10 correctly with one correct score for a total of 80 points. 

My current total for the season is 157 out of 334 with for 2350 points.  Lawrenson has picked 166 out of 334 for 2470 points. Merson has picked 152 out of 329 for a total of 2250 points

Lawrenson’s new predictions can be found here.  I don’t think Merson made mid-week predictions.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can normally  be found here but the blogger system is not letting me put a link in so I am moving on.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Newcastle-Man City       1-2

West Ham-Watford        2-1

Liverpool-Everton            2-1

Man U-Palace                    1-0

Arsenal-West Brom        1-0

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. We can still finish as low as a draw for 16^th place with Crystal Palace—although our goal differential should see us through--or as high as third place which seems unlikely. Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than a three way tie for second place—although their goal differential might land them in fourth.  However, if Arsenal and Manchester City do not win out and draw their game against each other and Leicester does not lose all of their remaining games, Leicester is in the group stage of the Champions League without playing in a qualifying round.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                     35

Tottenham                         31

Arsenal                                26

Manchester City                25

Manchester United           21

West Ham                           18

Liverpool                             19

Watford                                 9

Stoke City                              9

Everton                                 7

Chelsea                                 9

Crystal Palace                      1

West Brom                           5

Bournemouth                     3

Swansea City                       2

Norwich City                      -6

Newcastle                           -7

Sunderland                         -5

Aston Villa                           -16

A win against Aston Villa guarantees us at least 13^th place and maybe 12^th place.

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 34) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past week I picked ten games out of 11 correctly with two correct scores for 160 points.  Lawrenson picked seven out of 11 correctly with two correct scores for 130 points.   Merson picked six out of 10 correctly with one correct score for a total of 90 points. 

My current total for the season is 154 out of 324 with for 2260 points.  Lawrenson has picked 162 out of 324 for 2430 points. Merson has picked 147 out of 319 for a total of 2170 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  I had to make adjustments for unequal numbers of games played by using a table calculated by points per game rather than by current position on the table.   This did not affect any predictions this week.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Norwich-Sunderland      2-1

Everton-Southampton  1-1

Man U-Aston Villa           1-0

Newcastle-Swansea       1-1

West Brom-Watford       2-1

Chelsea-Man City            1-1

Cherries-Liverpool           1-1

Leicester-West Ham       2-1

Arsenal-Palace                  2-1

Stoke-Tottenham            0-1

My mid-week predictions could be affected by the weekend’s games so I cannot make them now.  I hope I don't forget to make them on time.

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It now takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. We can still finish as low as 17^th place or in a tied for second with Spurs—although their goal differential will probably see them through anyway.  Leicester, on the other hand, has clinched 4^th place.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                     38

Tottenham                         32

Arsenal                                29

Manchester City                26

Manchester United           22

West Ham                           21

Liverpool                             20

Watford                               10

Stoke City                            13

Everton                                 9

Chelsea                               13

Crystal Palace                      4

West Brom                           9

Bournemouth                     7

Swansea City                       6

Norwich City                      -3

Newcastle                           -6

Sunderland                         -4

Aston Villa                          -12