Monday, July 11, 2016

Southampton 2016-2017 Premier League/European Squad/Roster Summer Update One

I made several errors in this post with respect to Yoshida, Olamola, and  Bakery.  Fixes are in bold.

This is an update to an earlier post found here.  I used this post for information on Southampton contracts.  However, I will repeat some material from that post so that this post will stand on its own.

The primary difference between European rosters and Premier League rosters is that the Premier League does not currently distinguish among the types of home grown players.  We are required to have eight home grown players on our roster or we have to leave empty roster spots.  In Europe, eight home grown players are also required but at least four of them have to be trained at the club.  Unlike last summer where only Isgrove was club, this year we have five potential club trained players—at least one of whom, Ward-Prowse—is likely to be useful.

Each club is required to submit two different European roster lists at each registration deadline.  The registration deadlines occur immediately prior to each qualification/playoff round, the group stage, and the knock out stage.  There are limitations on registering players who have already played for someone else in the same competition during the same season, but those limits do not matter right now.
The “B” list is the easier to explain.  A player is eligible to be place on Southampton’s “B” list if they were born on or after 1 January 1995 and were eligible to play for Southampton for any two uninterrupted years since their 15th birthday.  If they are 16, then need to have been registered with Southampton for the last two years.  There is no limit to the number of players who can be registered on the B list.
I went through the official Southampton FC website (and other sources) and came up with a list of B list eligible players for next season.  I have listed only those players currently with the club who have signed professional contracts.  This does not mean that players without pro contracts are not eligible—just that they are unlikely to be significant enough to our plans for the coming season to worry about.
Southampton can register up to 25 players on the A list.  However, at least eight players must be “locally trained” and at least four of those players must be “club-trained.”  The other four can be “association-trained.
“Club-trained” players are ones who have been registered with Southampton for three full seasons between ages 15 and 21.  The seasons can include the ones where the player turns 15 or 21.  Unlike last year when Southampton had only one club trained player, we now have five.  Only Ward-Prowse has seen significant playing time, but, if we qualify for Europe, I would expect three of the other four to be with the club next season unless they are viewed as literally being worse that nothing.
An “association-trained” player is one who has been registered with one or more clubs from the same association for three seasons or 36 months between the ages of 15 and 21.  Obviously, all club-trained players are also association-trained players for the nation in which the club is registered.  If a club does not have enough club-trained or association-trained players, it must leave the roster spots empty.  That is why we entered Europe last year with three empty roster spots.
The following is a list of current Southampton players sorted into their appropriate European categories for the 2016-2017 season.
EUROPEAN SQUAD LIST (AS OF 11/7/16)
                                                                A LIST
B-List                          Other                         Association Trained                   Club Trained
Bakary*                      Clasie                         Austin                                           Gape

Barnes                        Fonte                        Bertrand                                        Isgrove
Cook                           Gardos                      Davis                                              Stephens
Debayo                      Gazzaniga                 Forster                                          Turnbull
Flannigan                  Hojbjerg**                Lewis***                                      Ward-Prowse
Gallagher                  Martina                    Long  
Hesketh                    Romeu                      Redmond
Johnson                    Soares                       Rodriguez 
Jones                         Tadic

Little                         Valery**** 

McCarthy                Van Dijk 
                                    
McQueen                 Yoshida         
Mugabi 

Olamola                               
Reed                                    
Seager                                 
Sims                                      
Slattery
Targett                                
Willard
Wood
*Bakary arrived at Southampton in April 2014.  He is not English and I cannot determine when first arrived in England, but assuming it was before August 2013, he would count as association trained in England.  He becomes club trained for Southampton in April 2017—so not this season.
** Hojbjerg would young enough for the B List this season, but has not been with the club long enough so he will never be eligible for the B list.

***Lewis arrived in the summer of 2015 so he becomes club trained in 2018 and B list eligible in 2017.
****Valery is French and arrived at Southampton in the Summer of 2015 so he will not be club trained until summer of 2018.  He will not be eligible for the B list until the Summer of 2017.  One suspects he will not be playing European Football for us this season.
If we just focus on the A list after eliminating those players who are obviously not going to be on the A list, this is what things look like.
EUROPEAN SQUAD A LIST (AS OF 11/7/16)
Other                                    Association Trained                         Club Trained
Clasie                                    Austin                                                   Gape
Fonte                                    Bertrand                                              Isgrove
Gardos                                 Davis                                                     Stephens
Gazzaniga                            Forster                                                 Turnbull
Hojbjerg                              Long                                                      Ward-Prowse
Martina                               Redmond
Romeu                                 Rodriguez
Soares                                                                                                 
Tadic                                                                    
Van Dijk

Yoshia
That is a total of 23 players with all required home grown slots covered.  In fact, we have five people assigned to the club trained category which is one more than we are likely to use.  This means we have room for three more players who can be of any nationality.  Give that we have to play somewhere between 46 and 68 matches, it would be crazy to go into the season understaffed by three players.  (And this doesn’t even account for the potential demands imposed by the new EFL trophy competition.)
PREMIER LEAGUE SQUAD LIST (AS OF 11/7/16)
Home Grown                                     Other
Austin                                                   Clasie
Bertrand                                              Fonte
Davis                                                     Gardos
Forster                                                 Gazzaniga
Gape                                                     Martina
Isgrove                                                 Romeu
Long                                                      Soares
Redmond                                            Tadic
Rodriguez                                            Van Dijk
Stephens                                             Yoshida
Turnbull
Ward-Prowse
Thus, for Premier League purposes, we have twelve home grown players and 10 other players for a total of 22 players who would have to be registered on the 25 man Premier League roster in order to be eligible to play.  (Hojbjerg is an under-21 player for Premier League purposes and does not count against the squad limit.)  Obviously, we have more flexibility than that because it is unlikely all four of Gape, Turnbull, Stephens, and Isgrove are in our plans for this season.  On the other hand, we could put all four of them on the Premier League squad but leave one off the Europa squad and then buy three more players who would be eligible for both competitions.  Or would could leave all four of them off the Premier League squad and include three of them on the Europa squad.  That would give us openings for seven more players, four of whom could not play in the Europa League. 
I will assume that we are going to have the same roster for both competitions—aside from the extra Premier League slot created by Hojbjerg’s age.  This means we need three more players who need not be home grown.    Ignoring the four younger club trained players, this is how we stand by positions:
GK:         2
LB           2
CB           4
RB           2
DM         3 (4 if we count Reed)
CM         2
AM/S    5
There is some arbitrariness to where I categorized players.  I put Davis and Ward-Prowse into the CM category but Redmond and Tadic into the AM/S category.
WHAT DO WE NEED
Aside from Goalkeeper, we don’t look like we are particularly short in any position, but more depth is necessary given the games that will need to be played.  In the following discussion I use the players’ ages as of 1 July 2016.
GOALKEEPERS
Obviously, we need another backup goalkeeper.  We cannot go into a Premier League season with only one.  In my February post I said that it was time to sign Forster to a long term contract.  That was done but we still have a problem.  I am willing to assume the club views Gazzaniga as a satisfactory backup.  Is an under-21 goal keeper a good enough back up for him?  I doubt it, but I don’t know who would be willing to sign to be our third goalkeeper.  In a strange way, the injury to Forster helped last year because it meant we could get a quality third goalkeeper for the season.
DEFENDERS
It is not clear that we are strong enough at right back.  Supposedly we are looking at Jeremy Pied for this position.
Back in February I said that we needed to strengthen at center back unless Stephens was ready or we were sure about Gardos.  Nothing that has happened since changes my view.  It would be crazy to assume Fonte is not doing to start dropping in quality due to his age (and the lack of a summer break).  Gardos was undoubtedly signed thinking he would be good enough to start for us.  Maybe he is, but with all his injuries there is simply no way to know.  The younger home grown center backs do not seemed to have progressed to the point where they can be counted on, but with the new manager and the supposed increased focus on youth development, maybe the plan is to give them a chance this season.
Nevertheless, I would try to sign a high quality young center back and let him know that he would get a chance to compete for a starting job and, in any case, squad rotation would mean that he would get 10 to 20 starts depending on how far we progress in the various competitions.
Left back appears to be in fine shape.
MIDFIELD
We seem to be set in the midfield.  We probably will not have anyone as good as Wanyama on one of his good days, but we probably will not have anyone who passes as poorly as he does on his bad days.
That being said Romeu is something of a problem.  He is 24 but he was only signed to a three year contract.  Unless the plan is to use him for three years and let him leave on a free, his contract needs to be extended this summer.  If he doesn’t want to resign, better to find that out now and takes steps to replace him.
Steven Davis is also a potential problem because he 31—old by midfielder standards.  He was signed to a contract extension which means that he is scheduled to be here until age 34.  He is, perhaps, more likely to start fading now than Fonte since he has to run around so much more. I have to assume the club has decided that he is worth the risk and that they will deal with any aging issues by playing him less. 
ATTACKERS
This is the biggest changed area since my last post.  We have lost three players here (not counting Rameriz) but have only signed one replacement.
I guess the club considers Austin to be a replacement signing since he was signed in contemplation of Pelle leaving this summer.  He is signed until 2020 when he will be 30.  His fitness situation is also uncertain.  That suggests that someone else might be needed.
After last season, the club appears to intend to rely on Long as the primary striker.  However, he is 29 and only has two years left on his relatively high wage contract.  It seems unlikely that he would be signed to a long contract extension.  A shorter extension might be a good idea but I don’t know that it would make sense for Long to sign one.  (Long might be headed for Major League Soccer at some point.  He would be a perfect player for MLS if he can retain most of his pace and endurance.)  As it is, Long’s contract expires when he is 31.  He will likely be showing some effects of aging by then.
Rodriguez is also a question mark.  We do not know whether he will be good enough.
Tadic is 27 years old and his contract expires in 2018.  I would think the club would want to resign him.  Perhaps he doesn’t want to sign a new contract but if that is the case he is worth a lot more if sold this year than next.
Redmond is 22 and signed through 2021.  We will just have to see how he turns out, but clearly the club is counting on him heavily this year.  I don’t think it is reasonable to view him as Mane’s replacement but maybe that is what he is.  I liked it better when I thought we might see both of them on the field at the same time.
WHAT DO WE NEED?
If February I listed our needs thusly:
A back up goal keeper NOT YET DONE
A centerback who is better than Yoshida and younger than Fonte NOT YET DONE
A right back who can challenge Soares for playing time NOT YET DONE (unless Martina now qualifies)
A midfielder who can take over Steven Davis’ role and an extension to Romeu’s or Wanyama’s contract (or both) PARTIALLY DONE BECAUSE HOJBJERG MAY QUALIFY
A replacement for Pelle and Mane—if they are not going to stay for another year  NOT YET DONE
An attacking winger DONE
From my February perspective, the club still has a lot of work to do.  On the other hand, I don’t really feel like the team is that far off where it needs to be to compete.  However, if we want to qualify for the Champions League we are not there.  That being said, other than at goalkeeper I think it would be a mistake to buy anyone who cannot improve the starting 11—or at least might be able to do so.  We have room for four players and we need to fill all those slots.

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Predictions 2015-2016 FINAL RESULTS

This is my final prediction post with the final totals for the season.

For the last week of the season I picked four games out of 14 correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.  Lawrenson picked nine out of 14 correctly with three correct scores for 180 points.   Merson picked nine out of 14 correctly with four correct scores for a total of 210 points. 
My final total for the season is 179 out of 380 with for 2660 points.  Lawrenson picked 192 out of 380 for 3030 points. Merson  picked 174 out of 370 for a total of 2710 points.
Unlike last year, my predictions were worse than the two experts.  In part this was due to the last week of the season where the experts both had tremendously accurate predictions and I did not.  Prior to that week I was ahead of Merson.  I also attribute my lower success to the limitations my system suffers under during the early weeks of the season when I am relying on last year’s results.  I did not start my predictions until the 2014-2015 season was well underway so I didn’t have to worry about that.  I think that it might make more sense to base my predictions on the last 19 games played by each club rather than the season as a whole or the prior season.  However, figuring that out is something of a pain and would defeat the whole purpose of the experiment which is to show that a simple mechanical system is about as good as relying upon a pundit.  In a sense, although both pundits finished ahead of me, I was close enough to suggest that they were not exceptionally better and their expertise does not add much value to their predictions.
If I do this again next year I will no doubt tinker a bit with the system.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Pointless European Qualification Analysis

There has been a pointless, ongoing discussion on the Saintsweb Forum about the European qualification rules in various unlikely scenarios.  It is my belief that the club that finishes in fifth place in a county like England which has four automatic qualifiers for the Champion’s League will always qualify for Europe.  However, some posters on Saintweb believe that it is theoretically possible for the fifth place finisher not to qualify for Europe.  This blog is my attempt to resolve the dispute using the relevant UEFA rules.  I am using the UEFA Champions League rules for 2015-2016.  I believe these rules remain in effect for the next two seasons.  For the purposes of this article, I will assume I am talking about England, but the same analysis would apply to any association that had four automatic qualifiers into the Champions League.

A specific example of the circumstances under which some people believe the fifth place club could be excluded from Europe is when the sixth place finisher wins the Champion’s League, the seventh place finisher wins the Europa League, the eighth place finisher wins the FA cup, and the ninth place finisher wins the Capital One cup.  In other words, this scenario:
1. Don't win any cup
2. Don't win any cup
3. Don't win any cup
4. Don't win any cup
5. Don't win any cup
6. Win CL
7. Win EL
8. Win FA Cup
9. Win C1 Cup
It is my opinion that under these circumstances the first nine clubs all qualify for Europe.  I will work through the UEFA rules to show why this is correct.
Annex A of the rules provides the standard answer when there are no unusual circumstances.  Applying these rules to the above scenario we start with these results:
1. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
2. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
3. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
4. Don't win any cup       CL playoff phase
5. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
6. Win CL
7. Win EL
8. Win FA Cup                   EL group phase
9. Win C1 Cup                   EL 3
rd qualifying round
To determine what happens with the Champions League title holder we have to look at Rule 3.03 which states:
The UEFA Champions League titleholder is guaranteed a place in the group stage even if it does not qualify for the competition through its domestic championship.  If the UEFA Champions League titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League through one of its domestic competitions, the number of places to which its association is entitled in the UEFA Europa League is decreased by one. The created vacancy is rebalanced accordingly and priority for the UEFA Europa League is given to the domestic cup winners (in accordance with the entry stage as per the access list).
Standing on its own, this rule makes it clear that if the Champion’s League title holder also qualified for the Europa League, England would lose one of its Europa League entries.  Implicit in this rule, in my opinion, is a determination that if the Champion’s League titleholder does not qualify for Europe at all, there would be no loss of a Europa League spot.  If this were not the case, it would make more sense to write the rule as simply stating that if the Champion’s League’s titleholder does not qualify for the Champions League through domestic competition, the association will always lose one place in the Europa League.
This means that we our scenario now goes:
1. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
2. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
3. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
4. Don't win any cup       CL playoff phase
5. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
6. Win CL                           CL group phase
7. Win EL
8. Win FA Cup                   EL group phase
9. Win C1 Cup                   EL 3
rd qualifying round
Rule 3.04 provides:
The UEFA Europa League titleholder is guaranteed a place in the competition as a minimum in the play-offs. It will have priority filling a vacancy created in the group stage or in the play-offs by the UEFA Champions League titleholder.
This rule is clear.  The Europa League titleholder always enters the Champion’s League and has a priority filling a vacancy created at the group stage by the Champion’s League titleholder.  In our hypothetical scenario, no such vacancy exists because our Champion’s League qualifier is also from same association and did not earn a Champion’s League place on its own.  This means in our scenario the Europa League Titleholder would enter in the playoff rounds of the Champion’s league.  So we are now here:
1. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
2. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
3. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
4. Don't win any cup       CL playoff phase
5. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
6. Win CL                             CL group phase
7. Win EL                             CL playoff phase
8. Win FA Cup                   EL group phase
9. Win C1 Cup                    EL 3
rd qualifying round
Rules 3.05 and 3.06 make it clear that the Europa League titleholder gets to play directly in the group phase if it qualifies for the group phase through its domestic competition and that it gets to play in the playoff phase if it qualifies for the playoff phase directly through domestic competition.  In our scenario neither of these two circumstances occurs. 
Rule 3.07 details what would happen in all other possible situations.  It is confusing, but I think I have sorted it out.  The relevant scenario is the fourth one on the list where there is “No vacancy in the group stage or play-offs” because the “UCL titleholder does not qualify for the competition and comes from an association ranked 1 to 12 in the access list.”  In our scenario, England is ranked 1, 2, or 3 on the access list.  Therefore, the Europa League title holder enters the Champions League in the Play-offs on the League path.  So there is no change in the current list.
Rule 3.08 provides:
Exceptionally, an association may be represented by five clubs in the competition if the UEFA Champions League and/or UEFA Europa League titleholder does not also qualify through its domestic championship.
This tells us that our current scenario is wrong because we have six clubs in the Champions League and, implicit in 3.08, is a five club limit on Champions League entries from a single association.  However, we have not yet encountered the rule that tells us what to do about this problem.  Rule 3.09 is that rule:
If the UEFA Champions League titleholder and the UEFA Europa League titleholder come from the same association and do not qualify for the competition through their domestic championship, one of the following scenarios applies:
It then goes on to list six possible scenarios.  The third scenario is the one that applies to our hypothetical:
If the association is entitled to four places in the UEFA Champions League and neither titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League through its domestic championship, the lowest-placed of the association’s UEFA Champions League representatives is automatically transferred to the UEFA Europa League (into the UEFA Europa League group stage and the access list will be rebalanced accordingly). In this case, the association of the titleholders is entitled to one additional place (total of five) in the UEFA Champions League and one additional place (total of four) in the UEFA Europa League.
This rule clearly states that the association can have nine total entries into Europe.  Applying this rule to our hypothetical scenarios we end up like this:
1. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
2. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
3. Don't win any cup       CL group phase
4. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
5. Don't win any cup       EL group phase
6. Win CL                             CL group phase
7. Win EL                             CL playoff phase
8. Win FA Cup                   EL group phase
9. Win C1 Cup                    EL 3
rd qualifying round
The one thing that is not clear to me is what rebalancing the access list “accordingly” means exactly.  There is a potential reference to this subject in Annex A which states:
If the access list needs to be adjusted once all the participants are known and admitted, priority for the UEFA Champions League will be given to the winners of the domestic championship (in accordance with the entry stage as per the access list). The adjusted list will be announced by circular letter.
This suggests that the actual process of rebalancing the access list is not a simple one and cannot be decided until the actual facts are known.  I would guess that this means that someone gets kicked out of the Europa League group phase to make room for the extra club from England.  Possibly, it would be the 5th place English club being bounced out of the group phase.  In any case, this would cause a cascade effect on all the earlier qualifying rounds and could, I suppose, bounce England’s Capital One cup winner down to the 2nd qualifying round.  On the other hand, the rebalancing might always be to the detriment of lower ranked associations.  I simply don’t know and haven’t found anything in the rules that addresses this issue.  (I have not read the entire 94 pages of the rules—just the portions that seemed potentially relevant.) 
I think the best way of understanding the European qualification rules is to understand that both European title holders will always qualify for the Champions League.  Also, any club that qualifies for Europe through their domestic competition cannot lose their place in Europe because another club from the same association wins a European title.  However, a club can be dropped from the Champions League into the Europa League or placed into an earlier qualifying found because another club from their association (or from some other association) won a European title.
Finally, I am going to try to blog more regularly during this off season (or should I say close season). I intend to devote an hour a day to my blog.  This does not mean I will blog every day because some of my blog posts require more work than an hour and also because I am certain there were be days when I cannot spend any time on the blog—for example, when I am out of town on vacation (holiday) or work (work).
In any case, if any regular (or irregular) readers of my blog have any suggestions for subjects they would like me to write about, I would certainly appreciate the suggestions.

Monday, May 9, 2016

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 38) FINAL PREDICTIONS With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This is the final prediction post of the season.  I can predict both the mid-week games and the final games because the results of the mid-week games will not change the predictions for the final weekend—except for the score in the Man U-Bournemouth game.

This past week I picked six games out of ten correctly with one correct score for 90 points.  Lawrenson picked three out of ten correctly with two correct scores for 90 points.   Merson picked five out of ten correctly with one correct score for a total of 80 points.
My current total for the season is 175 out of 366 with for 2620 points.  Lawrenson has picked 183 out of 366 for 2850 points. Merson has picked 165 out of 356 for a total of 2500 points
Lawrenson’s and Merson’s mid-week predictions can be found here and here if I remember to add the information once it becomes available.  Same goes for their weekend predictions here and here.
PREDICTIONS
My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the final round of games:
West Ham-Man U            1-1
Norwich-Watford            1-1
Sunderland-Everton       1-1
Liverpool-Chelsea            2-1
Arsenal-Aston Villa          1-0
Chelsea-Leicester            1-2
Everton-Norwich             2-1
Man U-Cherries            2-1 (1-0 if Man U keeps a clean sheet in its mid-week game)
Newcastle-Tottenham  1-2
Southampton-Palace     2-1
Stoke-West Ham              1-1
Swansea-Man City          1-2
Watford-Sunderland      2-1
West Brom-Liverpool     1-2
RELEGATION AVOIDANCE
It now takes 38 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. Sunderland can end it all by winning one of their two remaining games.
We can still finish as low as 8th or as high as 5th place.   If we tie with Manchester United we would beat them on goal difference.  Ties with Liverpool and West Ham are more problematic.
MAGIC NUMBERS
Normally I provide an imbedded link to where I explain magic numbers but the embedding isn't working so you can find it here:
 (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 
Leicester City                     24
Tottenham                         14
Arsenal                                 12
Manchester City                 9
Manchester United           10
West Ham                             6
Liverpool                               5
Watford                               -9
Stoke City                            -8
Everton                               -9
Chelsea                                -5
Crystal Palace                    -14
West Brom                         -12
Bournemouth                   -14
Swansea City                     -10
Norwich City                      -21
Newcastle                           -22
Sunderland                         -18
Aston Villa                           -33

Thursday, May 5, 2016

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 37) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past week I picked five games out of ten correctly with two correct scores for 110 points.  Lawrenson picked seven out of ten correctly with three correct scores for 160 points.   Merson picked five out of ten correctly with two correct scores for a total of 110 points.

My current total for the season is 169 out of 356 with for 2530 points.  Lawrenson has picked 180 out of 356 for 2760 points. Merson has picked 160 out of 346 for a total of 2420 points.
Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here if I remember to add the information once it becomes available. 
PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:
Norwich-Man U                               1-2
Aston Villa-Newcastle                    1-1
Cherries-West Brom                       1-1
Palace-Stoke                                      1-1
Sunderland-Chelsea                       1-2
West Ham-Swansea                       2-1
Leicester-Everton                            2-1
Tottenham-Southampton            2-1
Liverpool-Watford                           2-1
Man City-Arsenal                             1-1
I was hoping to post my mid-week predictions here now but, unfortunately, three of them can be affected by the weekend’s results.  Only Liverpool over Chelsea 2-1 is fixed.
RELEGATION AVOIDANCE
It now takes 41 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. Only Crystal Palace remains at theoretical risk of the clubs that are effectively safe.
We can still finish as low as tied with Chelsea for 9th or as high as 5th place.   If we tie with Chelsea, goal differential could go either way, but we are very likely to lose if it comes down to goals scored.
MAGIC NUMBERS
These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 
Leicester City                     27

Tottenham                         20
Arsenal                                17
Manchester City                14
Manchester United           13
West Ham                           12
Liverpool                               8
Watford                               -3
Stoke City                            -2
Everton                                -3
Chelsea                                 1
Crystal Palace                    -11
West Brom                         -7
Bournemouth                   -9
Swansea City                     -7
Norwich City                      -15
Newcastle                           -17
Sunderland                         -15
Aston Villa                           -28

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 36) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past week I picked three games out of seven correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.  Lawrenson picked three out of seven correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.   Merson picked three out of seven correctly with zero correct scores for a total of 30 points.

My current total for the season is 164 out of 346 with for 2420 points.  Lawrenson has picked 173 out of 346 for 2600 points. Merson has picked 155 out of 336 for a total of 2310 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here if I remember to add the information after it becomes available.

PREDICTIONS
My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:
Everton-Cherries             2-1

Newcastle-Palace            1-1

Stoke-Sunderland           2-1
Watford-Aston Villa        1-0
West Brom-West Ham   1-2
Arsenal-Norwich              2-1
Swansea-Liverpool          1-2
Man U-Leicester              1-1
Southampton-Man City   1-1
Chelsea-Tottenham        1-2
RELEGATION AVOIDANCE
Yet again, it still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. That number will drop unless both Sunderland and Norwich win.  If either club draws, the number drops to 42.  If either club loses, it drops to 41.    We can still finish as low as 10th or as high as 5th place. However, finishing ahead of Manchester United requires virtually everything to go right for us—we win all three of our remaining games and they lose three out of four, for example.  Finishing ahead of Liverpool or West Ham is only slightly easier.  In other words, European football is quite unlikely and  could be virtually impossible by the end of the weekend.  A win against Manchester City guarantees us no worse than 9th place—8th place if Chelsea loses.
Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than second place and will guarantee themselves the title if they win, Tottenham lose, or they both draw.
MAGIC NUMBERS
These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 
Leicester City                    32
Tottenham                        25
Arsenal                               20
Manchester City               20
Manchester United          18
West Ham                           15
Liverpool                             14
Watford                               0
Stoke City                            3
Everton                                0
Chelsea                                6
Crystal Palace                    -5
West Brom                         -1
Bournemouth                   -3
Swansea City                     -4
Norwich City                      -9
Newcastle                           -14
Sunderland                         -10
Aston Villa                           -22