Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 36) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past week I picked three games out of seven correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.  Lawrenson picked three out of seven correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.   Merson picked three out of seven correctly with zero correct scores for a total of 30 points.

My current total for the season is 164 out of 346 with for 2420 points.  Lawrenson has picked 173 out of 346 for 2600 points. Merson has picked 155 out of 336 for a total of 2310 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here if I remember to add the information after it becomes available.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Everton-Cherries             2-1

Newcastle-Palace            1-1

Stoke-Sunderland           2-1

Watford-Aston Villa        1-0

West Brom-West Ham   1-2

Arsenal-Norwich              2-1

Swansea-Liverpool          1-2

Man U-Leicester              1-1

Southampton-Man City   1-1

Chelsea-Tottenham        1-2

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

Yet again, it still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. That number will drop unless both Sunderland and Norwich win.  If either club draws, the number drops to 42.  If either club loses, it drops to 41.    We can still finish as low as 10^th or as high as 5^th place. However, finishing ahead of Manchester United requires virtually everything to go right for us—we win all three of our remaining games and they lose three out of four, for example.  Finishing ahead of Liverpool or West Ham is only slightly easier.  In other words, European football is quite unlikely and  could be virtually impossible by the end of the weekend.  A win against Manchester City guarantees us no worse than 9^th place—8^th place if Chelsea loses.

Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than second place and will guarantee themselves the title if they win, Tottenham lose, or they both draw.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                    32

Tottenham                        25

Arsenal                               20

Manchester City               20

Manchester United          18

West Ham                           15

Liverpool                             14

Watford                               0

Stoke City                            3

Everton                                0

Chelsea                                6

Crystal Palace                    -5

West Brom                         -1

Bournemouth                   -3

Swansea City                     -4

Norwich City                      -9

Newcastle                           -14

Sunderland                         -10

Aston Villa                           -22

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 35) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past mid-week I picked four games out of five correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.  Lawrenson picked four out of five correctly with two correct scores for 100 points.   Merson picked zero  out of zero correctly with zero correct scores for a total of 0 points.  However, I failed to give him credit for both of his correct weekend scores so his season point total increases by 30.

My current total for the season is 161 out of 339 with for 2390 points.  Lawrenson has picked 170 out of 339 for 2570 points. Merson has picked 152 out of 329 for a total of 2280 points

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Man City-Stoke                   2-1

Aston Villa-Southampton  0-1     

Cherries-Chelsea                 1-1

Liverpool-Newcastle           2-1

Sunderland-Arsenal            1-2

Leicester-Swansea              1-0

Tottenham-West Brom     1-0

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. That number will drop to 43 if Sunderland loses.  We can still finish as low as 14^th or as high as fourth place which seems unlikely. A win against Aston Villa guarantees us no worse than 10^th place.  Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than third place so they are already in the group stage of the Champions League.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. I made some mistakes in the mid-week magic number post.  I apologize to the half dozen people who might have read them.  (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                    35

Tottenham                        30

Arsenal                               25

Manchester City               23

Manchester United          21

West Ham                          18

Liverpool                            19

Watford                                3

Stoke City                             9

Everton                                 3

Chelsea                                 9

Crystal Palace                    -2

West Brom                           2

Bournemouth                     3

Swansea City                       2

Norwich City                      -6

Newcastle                           -9

Sunderland                         -5

Aston Villa                           -16

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 34.5) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

These are my mid-week predictions—all adjusted for uneven number of games played.

This past weekend I picked three games out of 10 correctly with two correct scores for 90 points.  Lawrenson picked four out of 10 correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.   Merson picked five out of 10 correctly with one correct score for a total of 80 points. 

My current total for the season is 157 out of 334 with for 2350 points.  Lawrenson has picked 166 out of 334 for 2470 points. Merson has picked 152 out of 329 for a total of 2250 points

Lawrenson’s new predictions can be found here.  I don’t think Merson made mid-week predictions.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can normally  be found here but the blogger system is not letting me put a link in so I am moving on.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Newcastle-Man City       1-2

West Ham-Watford        2-1

Liverpool-Everton            2-1

Man U-Palace                    1-0

Arsenal-West Brom        1-0

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. We can still finish as low as a draw for 16^th place with Crystal Palace—although our goal differential should see us through--or as high as third place which seems unlikely. Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than a three way tie for second place—although their goal differential might land them in fourth.  However, if Arsenal and Manchester City do not win out and draw their game against each other and Leicester does not lose all of their remaining games, Leicester is in the group stage of the Champions League without playing in a qualifying round.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                     35

Tottenham                         31

Arsenal                                26

Manchester City                25

Manchester United           21

West Ham                           18

Liverpool                             19

Watford                                 9

Stoke City                              9

Everton                                 7

Chelsea                                 9

Crystal Palace                      1

West Brom                           5

Bournemouth                     3

Swansea City                       2

Norwich City                      -6

Newcastle                           -7

Sunderland                         -5

Aston Villa                           -16

A win against Aston Villa guarantees us at least 13^th place and maybe 12^th place.

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 34) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past week I picked ten games out of 11 correctly with two correct scores for 160 points.  Lawrenson picked seven out of 11 correctly with two correct scores for 130 points.   Merson picked six out of 10 correctly with one correct score for a total of 90 points. 

My current total for the season is 154 out of 324 with for 2260 points.  Lawrenson has picked 162 out of 324 for 2430 points. Merson has picked 147 out of 319 for a total of 2170 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  I had to make adjustments for unequal numbers of games played by using a table calculated by points per game rather than by current position on the table.   This did not affect any predictions this week.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Norwich-Sunderland      2-1

Everton-Southampton  1-1

Man U-Aston Villa           1-0

Newcastle-Swansea       1-1

West Brom-Watford       2-1

Chelsea-Man City            1-1

Cherries-Liverpool           1-1

Leicester-West Ham       2-1

Arsenal-Palace                  2-1

Stoke-Tottenham            0-1

My mid-week predictions could be affected by the weekend’s games so I cannot make them now.  I hope I don't forget to make them on time.

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It now takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. We can still finish as low as 17^th place or in a tied for second with Spurs—although their goal differential will probably see them through anyway.  Leicester, on the other hand, has clinched 4^th place.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                     38

Tottenham                         32

Arsenal                                29

Manchester City                26

Manchester United           22

West Ham                           21

Liverpool                             20

Watford                               10

Stoke City                            13

Everton                                 9

Chelsea                               13

Crystal Palace                      4

West Brom                           9

Bournemouth                     7

Swansea City                       6

Norwich City                      -3

Newcastle                           -6

Sunderland                         -4

Aston Villa                          -12

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 33) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past round I picked eight games out of 10 correctly with one correct score for 110 points.  Lawrenson picked six out of 10 correctly with one correct score for 90 points.   Merson picked four out of 10 correctly with no correct scores for a total of 40 points.

My current total for the season is 144 out of 313 with for 2100 points.  Lawrenson has picked 155 out of 313 for 2310 points. Merson has picked 141 out of 309 for a total of 2080 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  I had to make adjustments for unequal numbers of games played by using a table calculated by points per game rather than by current position on the table.   This caused the Liverpool-Stoke game to be predicted as a Liverpool victory rather than a draw.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

West Ham-Arsenal                          1-1

Aston Villa-Cherries                        1-2

Palace-Norwich                               2-1

Southampton-Newcastle              1-0

Swansea-Chelsea                            1-1

Watford-Everton                             1-1

Man City-West Brom                      1-0

Sunderland-Leicester                     1-2

Liverpool-Stoke                                2-1

Tottenham-Man U                          2-1

In addition, nothing that can happen this weekend will change the prediction for the mid-week game:

Palace-Everton                                 1-1

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It now takes 47 points to guarantee relegation avoidance so we are safe but we can still finish as low as 17^th place.  Leicester, on the other hand, has clinched a 6^th place tie with Liverpool.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.)  The magic numbers do not reflect our safety from relegation because, mathematically, we can still finish behind either Norwich or Sunderland, just not both.

Leicester City                      41

Tottenham                          35

Arsenal                                34

Manchester City                29

Manchester United           28

West Ham                           26

Liverpool                             23

Watford                              15

Stoke City                           19

Everton                              16

Chelsea                              19

Crystal Palace                     9

West Brom                         15

Bournemouth                    10

Swansea City                      9

Norwich City                        3

Newcastle                             0

Sunderland                           2

Aston Villa                           -9

Southampton Weekly Salaries (Update final FM 2016 database)

The final Football Manager 2016 update has been released. I have listed the weekly salaries of Southampton players below.

As I stated in my priors FM based salary lists, I have no idea how accurate these figures are and they do not take into account performance bonuses.  On the other hand, during the summer of 2014 when I was considering Financial Fair Play issues FM’s base salaries fairly closely corresponded to the information released by the club for the players’ salaries as a whole.

The only changes since the last update are the addition of Charlie Austin and a reduction in Ramirez’s salary from 55 to 40 per week.  I assume that there has been no actual change in his salary but simply a change in the official opinion of Football Manager.  Also, Caulker is gone.

I have left the last three sets of numbers in so it is easy to see the changes.  The salaries are in thousands of pounds per week.

PLAYER                      CURRENT             NOV 2015            FEB 2015              NOVEMBER 2014

Austin                                   55                           20 (prior club)

Rodriguez                            55                           55                           28                           28

Fonte                                    47                           47                           34                           34

Mane                                    45                           45                           45                           45

Van Dijk                               45                           45                           20 (prior club)

Long                                      45                           45                           50                           50

Bertrand                              43                           43                           43                           35

Tadic                                      42                           42                           42                           42

Ramirez                                40                           55                           55                           55

Juanmi                                  40                           40                           10.5 (prior club)

Cedric                                   40                           40                           4.5 (prior club)                  

Clasie                                    40                           40                           5.8 (prior club)                  

Forster                                 40                           40                           40                           40

Ward-Prose                        40                           40                           40                           20          

Pelle                                      37                           37                           37                           37

Romeu                                 35                           35                           30 (prior club)

Wanyama                            34                           34                           34                           34

S. Davis                                 34                           34                           34                           34 

Gardos                                 30                           30                           30                           30

Stekelenburg                     28.5                        28.5                        28.5 (prior club) 

Yoshida                                28                           28                           28                           22.5

Martina                                20                           20                           not listed                            

Gazzaniga                            18                           18                           14                           14

K. Davis                                16                           16                           16                           16

Stephens                             12                           12                           5                             

Isgrove                                 12                           12                           4.5                         

Gallagher                             10                           10                           10                           10

Reed                                     10                           10                           10                           10

Targett                                 10                           10                           2

Everyone else is listed as making £5K or less a week so I will stop here.

According to this FM 2016 Southampton’s total weekly pay has stayed exactly the same since the last update.  The reduction in Ramirez and the removal of Caulker exactly balances the addition of Austin.  I leave it as an exercise for the reader to evaluate the likelihood that is correct.

Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 32) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past round I picked six games out of 10 correctly with one correct score for 90 points.  Lawrenson picked five out of 10 correctly with one correct score for 80 points.   Merson picked six out of 10 correctly with two correct scores for a total of 120 points. 

My current total for the season is 136 out of 303 with for 1990 points.  Lawrenson has picked 149 out of 303 for 2220 points. Merson has picked 137 out of 299 for a total of 2040 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  I had to make adjustments for unequal numbers of games played by using a table calculated by points per game rather than by current position on the table.   This caused the Sunderland-West Brom game to be predicted as a draw rather than a West Brom victory and the Liverpool-Totteham game to be called a draw rather than a Tottenham victory.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Aston Villa-Chelsea         1-2

Arsenal-Watford              1-0

Cherries-Man City           1-2

Norwich-Newcastle        2-1

Stoke-Swansea                 2-1

Sunderland-West Brom  1-1

West Ham-Palace            2-1

Liverpool-Tottenham      1-1

Leicester-Southampton   2-1

Man U-Everton                 2-1

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It still takes 50 points to guarantee relegation avoidance.  Obviously, this means that we can mathematically avoid relegation this week with a win.  We can also do so with a draw combined with a Sunderland loss.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.)  Since the most points we can earn on our own is 21 (24 with respect to Tottenham, Manchester City, and Leicester) this means that we technically control our own destiny with respect to everyone except the clubs that are ahead of us in the table and Liverpool.

Leicester City                      41

Tottenham                          37

Arsenal                                 34

Manchester City                 29

Manchester United            28

West Ham                            28

Liverpool                              25

Watford                               18

Stoke City                            21

Everton                               19

Chelsea                               19

Crystal Palace                    11

West Brom                         17

Bournemouth                   13

Swansea City                     11

Norwich City                        3

Newcastle                            3

Sunderland                          4

Aston Villa                          -9

MISCELLANEOUS STUFF

We have clinched a three way tie for 17^th place.  Our goal differential would likely let us prevail if that were to happen but we cannot be sure since it involves us losing all seven remaining games while Norwich and Newcastle win all of their remaining games after drawing this weekend--not a very likely scenario.

Leicester, on the other hand, has clinched 9^th place.

It still requires a 5^th place finish to secure a place in Europe because Manchester City can still drop below 6^th place and the FA Cup can be won by a club that does not otherwise qualify for Europe.  If the winner of the West Ham-Manchester United game wins the FA Cup and finishes in the top five, 6^th place would then qualify for Europe.  If that club and Manchester City both finish in the top six, 7^th place would qualify for Europe.