Monday, August 22, 2016

Predictions 2016-2017 (Round 3)

Last week I picked 3 out of 10 correctly with 0 correct scores for 30 points.   Mark Lawrenson predicted 6 out of ten correctly with 1 correct score for 90 points.  His celebrity guest got 4 out of ten correct with one correct scores.  Paul Merson predicted 5 out of ten correctly with 2 correct scores for 110 points.

For the season I have picked 6 out of 20 correctly with 1 correct score for 90 points. Lawrenson picked  10 out of 20 correctly with  2 correct scores for 160  points.  Merson has picked 10 out of 20 correctly with 4correct score for 220  points.

Based upon my rules found here, these are my predictions for the next round of games:
Tottenham-Liverpool                     2-1
Chelseas-Burnley                             2-1
Palace-Cherries                                2-1
Everton-Stoke                                  1-1
Leicester-Swansea                          2-1
Southampton-Sunderland            2-1
Watford-Arsenal                             1-2
Hull-Man U                                      1-2
West Brom-Middlesbrough         2-1
Man City-West Ham                      2-1

Friday, August 19, 2016

The Completely Unproofed and Long Out-of-Date Transcript of Les Reed's May 26, 2016 Interview

On May 26, 2016, Southampton released a 23:08 long interview with Les Reed.  I was out of town when it was release.  When I returned home I taped it and gave it to my secretary to transcribe but she correctly assigned it a lower priority than my actual work.  It took a couple of weeks for her to finish.  I was very busy then so I didn't have time to spend the couple of hours or more it would take to listen to the interview over and over to get the transcript as accurate as possible.  Time went by and the interview went out of date and I decided I would just let it go.

Then on a whim I posted a poll on The Sotanians forum asking if I should just go ahead and post it as is.  By a two to one margin the vote was to post it so here it is.  (I have no idea if the vote was 2 to 1 or 20 to 10.  Also, I didn't vote--at least I don't think I did.)

By the way, there should be some entertainment value arising out of the fact that my secretary knows nothing about Football or Southampton FC and very little about understanding English accents.

The interview is found here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVjn7OzB0kM

Q:  The problem for the second season running we were waiting to find out the result of the FA cup final had the ** Saturday evening.

A:  yeah, very pleased I mean obviously excited that it all went right down to the last wire and anything could happen there and at one point you are thinking there is going to be penalties there and it’s in the lap of the gods then um ** in front a bit of a shock um and it was ** that did it thanks to ace but um uh delighted when you actually come back for us  it meant we went to the group stages of the Europa League um which again is another step forward for the club.

Q:  yeah, just how big is it? To know we are going straight in to the group stages?

A:  oh it’s massive because um you can do very little planning until you know where you are in that context uh last season, you know, we were playing Europa League qualifying matches while we still had friendlies to play and essentially we were still in training camp um and you are also playing those games during the transfer window um so there is a whole host of issues that surround the fact that people have to play in qualifiers um you really got your work cut out and obviously we to a certain extent were lucky last year because we drove the ** and ** I really felt for the clubs that were traveling to ** and places like that so so to miss that stage and to be able to go straight into the group’s current six games and um be able to plan all the travel around it and get a proper preseason done is so important and it does give you a nice bit of chance because you are far better prepared for it when it comes.

Q:  has it been a busy couple of days than since the FA cup final in that now you can really start to plan for next season?

A: yeah, I mean obviously we have been planning for quite some time because the preseason camps and um preseason training uh but everything’s been uh on hold um and now we are up to confirm things and particularly the sort of second half of preseason um where um we will have a training camp and we will be able to complete that and get back and prepare for the European games and start of the season in a much more logical fashion then we went to it last year. 

Q:  Certain seasons have progression than? Just how incredible has this rise been?

A:  It’s been absolutely magnificent, you know, um we’ve had something to celebrate virtually every year, well we have every year, something to celebrate whether its promotion from League One to the Championship, back to back promotions, record numbers of points, etcetera etcetera Europe qualifiers, now Europe group stage um but that’s important because it’s what we intended to do it’s what it’s what we set out to do was to incrementally get better and better until such a time that the club has grown to the point where we were a very well established and a very uh stable familiar club and we are in the last three years we have established ourselves uh in the top player of the Premier League.  We always said when we got to the Premier League we did not want to just survive, we didn’t just want to hang on in there that we wanted to make an impact.  I think over the last three years we have done that.  we’ve compromised from seven to six and whilst you could look at it and say we’re only a few points off Champion’s League um we know this, the capacity to that, we know that that is possible and hopefully over the next five years we can continue to grow and build a club that’s ready for the Champion's League if and when the door opens for us

Q:  I was going to say the progression hasn’t just been on the pitch has it?  The club has just built itself up off it as well then?  That is probably an effect in the club’s rise?

A:  I think it is vitally important.  I think when we’ve hit troubled times when there has been a little bit of scaremongering, a bit of turmoil being able to continually focus on the vision, focus on the plan, not waiver off our plans stay on stay on track has brought us through those times.  We had a shaky period just after, you know, Christmas time we had a run of bad results but there was no pressure on no one yeah there was no major headlines and panic and disaster we worked our way through that on the pitch and we came through with a really good runs **** to achieve sixth position and did it off the pitch as well.  You know we, this really is a club where every person in this club contributes to that sixth place finish and that is the way we have to continue in order to remain stable.

Q:  One of those contributors is of course Ronald __, the manager, just how impressed have you been with the job he has done over these two seasons?

A:  I think, again, it goes back to when you appoint a manager what you are looking for in a manager and one of the major things is you look for a manager who buys into the culture and the belief in the passion and the values of the club and uh I, we have had three ** who have had that so that is important because you can’t be pulling in different directions so um picking out managers is very important in the first place and then you’ve got a chance to move forward and Ronald checked all the boxes and met the criteria.  Fans will probably remember when we recruited Ronald it was done very much under the radar no big headlines um as we’ve seen recently with some of the other clubs in the Premier League quietly done stick to the plan get the manager in and then start building the team around them um and cooperate with the manager in terms of player recruitment, you know very quietly just get on with your job and um we found a manager who buys into it and is a good coach and tactician we built a squad that meets the profile of the club we want to play exciting football and want to play good quality football *** all the things that Ronald is passionate about so there is meeting of mind if you like there and that that’s very important um and uh he’s done a great job and will continue to do so

Q:  you mentioned there would be talks between the two how are they going?

A:  The talks are ongoing all the time there is never a point where you say on such and such a date we will stop talking so yeah, there’s negotiating contracts and getting down to the nitty gritty and there’s conversations going on all the time about planning for the future um and you know Ronald and I have been talking for a long time about building towards a summer transfer window as you seen the extension contracts with our own players to consolidate the core of the team going forward is another big step forward you’re not just doing that on any given day that is something that you know I would sit down with Ronald and Russ Wilson, head of recruitment and we will discuss that um over a long period of time so all those conversations are about the future about what we are building for um and those things are very important.  There has been a lot of talk recently, Ronald himself has mentioned the idea that he sat down with us at a board level and talked about the five year plan you know there is no point in going headlong into contract uh negotiations about finance or money unless you are all on the same wavelength about where it’s going.  Except Ronald, his commitment is to the club for a long period of time.  It’s important that we talk about our ambitions being aligned and that we are all still trying to achieve the same things.  So those discussions have been ongoing and we are now at a point, as Ronald has said himself actually getting down to the detail of the contract which is where agents and lawyers get involved is at the end of the season which is where we are now and they are ongoing and everything’s going very positively at the moment.  

Q:  How big of an impact could the news that Virgil Van Dyke, *** all committed their futures long term to the club have been building this summer as well?

A:  Very important and that’s not finished you know the the I am still talking to agents of our current players to get more of those signatures on paper.  This is the next step for us is, you know, we’ve had two summers where ** the focus has been on players leaving and we want to turn that corner and look at the focus of players committing to the long term, buying into the long term and uh the vision for the future and signing longer contracts because they want to be here so we we’re in the process of all of that as well and as soon as that final whistle blows at the end of the season and me and my staff kick into gear on all of these things and uh you really are ** around and meetings in London, moving around even gone abroad to get things underway as quickly as you can before the transfer window opens and it really gets to the silly stage and hopefully we can settle down and be complete as near as we can to the front end of the window rather than the back end so it’s very very busy at the moment even though the season is over and everyone seems to think it all quiets down it actually gets very busy but at the moment the focus is on getting our players to commit long term to keep the core of the squad together and then fine tuning up that squad which Ronald and I have talked about for some months in terms of what are requirements are not massive requirements.  This is a good squad it’s a good team we got depth in the squad and the important thing is to keep that together and then fine tune it with with the um little bits that we are missing uh rather than wholesale change and big big changes.  There are enough teams in this summer transfer window gonna have to do that hopefully we can just keep thing nice and stable and prepare properly for next season

Q:  You lost a few, we saw a few early signings, so to speak, done before, signed before the first of July almost ready to join could that perhaps then be different this year?

A:  Yeah, I think it’s different in the fact that the early signings so far are Virgil Van Dyke, James **, and ** Foster um and that’s a good sign, that’s a good sign um and at the moment there are a few more that we would like to do that with but at the same time we are starting to look at targets for the summer and as I say hopefully we can do those things quickly.  The only problem you get in a year like this is a Euros and then people wait because if they’ve got players in the Euros sometimes they think they could have a good Euros they might be better interested in them but of course there’s always a gamble if you have a poor Euros than nobody’s interested but the Euros will also throw because there will be lots and lots of scouts out there um maybe scouts with doctors must do diligence as we do.  We know what we want, you know, but some people do react to players who have a good tournament or players who have just jumped out of the paper that they haven’t seen before because they score a couple of goals in the early rounds and they attempt to buy them so it does skew the transfer window a bit but we know what are plans are and um obviously we will be scouting the Euros but we’ll be scouting players we know all about anyway

Q:  You talk about the Euros obviously waiting on the group stage qualification.  How difficult has that made things to plan for preseason and where we go and where we head off?

A:  Yeah, that’s that’s uh it’s not easy when you’ve got you know what you would want to achieve is a lot of international players in your squad.  I have always said to be on the top end of the Premier League your whole squad has to be international players and that’s where we are at the moment not just the Euros but the ** tournament where we had three players in the mandatory ones last night um so that means that they need a rest and they need to come back a bit later um so you probably have quite a young squad of players in the first part of the preseason um and that planning that first part is difficult because you’ve got players returning from the Euros.  You do not know when they are going to get knocked out of the competition so you do not know when their break is going to start and then you’ve got the UEFA League which are way in for qualification stages etcetera um so we’ve penciled in a training camp early early in preseason which will probably be a young squad with the players who do not play in the Euros um that is likely to be in the U.S. it’s not confirmed yet but it would be a short short shot one probably a week and then as the players return from Euros duty back in for training at Staplewood and then probably the Dutch camp that we did last year um which makes planning easy because you have done it before you know the venue, you know the hotel, that makes it a lot easier and now we know our fate in the UEFA league we can start to nail those things down um so we are now at the stage where training camps are ok we know what our dates are going to be and who’s coming back when now its confirming things like preseason friendlies and so on um and uh the buildup to the season once we get back to St. Mary’s towards the end.

Q:  Seen three first team players commit their long term futures we obviously had the news last week of the five players signing professional deals Marcus ** signing a four year deal.  The future’s looking bright and that also brings me on to the loan players and sending more players out on loan this season.  Was that perhaps a change in the club’s philosophy?

A:  Yeah, it’s a consequence of sorts. When you strength, widen and deepen the first team’s squad um and achieve success in the Premier League it’s harder for players to actually get in the squad get in the team and play regularly and what’s important at this stage of the development is that they do get good quality games under their belt um it’s something we take very seriously we haven’t loaned players out in the past, one because they’ve come completely through on the journey and got into our team um um and secondly, because um you have to be very careful about the kinds of loans that you do. Um and we were not too happy with the loans we did last year um so we are looking into ways and means of making a lot more systematic in a way we deal with things so at the moment, part of what I am doing is meeting with um other clubs Championship clubs, League One clubs who would like to develop partnerships with us so we get a little bit more control over the number of games our players get when they go on loan, the kind of club they are playing for, the kind of style of play and the coaching that they getting because the loan is not just about the 90 minutes on Saturday.  It’s everything that they do from Monday to Friday at the other club.  We’d like to think that we can find loans for them which mirror the kind of work that we do which is difficult but because we’re um we’ve got a stake this is where we are in Premier League and our reputation *** is very very good the ability to loan players to quality clubs is quite good.  The other thing me might look at or are looking at is the potential of a partnership with a club in Europe so that our players can also get the benefit of a European type experience and almost, if you like, by loaning them get the same kind of experience as someone like Jody ** got whilst he was playing in Holland before he came to us.  So there is a lot of work being done on that front as well to make sure the loans are meaningful and a stepping stone into our team 

Q:  What are the aims for next season than?

A:  Aims for next season? Uh well like, you know, again, we’d like to think what we’ve done this season has taken us another increment or step towards the establishing ourselves in the top six.  Um so that would be the first step in doing that so again we would like to repeat a top six finish we would like to consolodate the fact that we can play in Europe every year um but also build uh and develop in such a way that um if there’s an opportunity to break into that top four um than we need to be ready for it not saying we will do it next season but we need to be ready if an opportunity occurs.  I think it’s going to be a very interesting summer a very interesting season actually because probably five or six of the traditional top six clubs or big six clubs including spurs who now have broken into that Champion's League spot uh are going to have to build and rebuild quite significantly uh new managers at the top end, you know, managers moving around normally is accompanied by big changes in players and so on and those six clubs are all competing for the same level of player and they are not all going to get them so the idea that they are all going to buy their way back and become the normal pecking order again I don’t think it’s going to happen and if it does it won’t be for a few years I think there is a lot of opportunity there for clubs like us. 

Q:  I was going to ask you about Lester City and their incredible season that also comes into play next year.  What did you take from it this year from what they achieved?

A:  I think uh I think it for me it’s quite fascinating because um the kind of ** they were getting albeit from a very lofty position at first or second in the league most of the season were the kind of ** we were getting three years ago.  We were kind of the upstarts who shook a few people um and um and we were getting incredible ** because it was kind of that’s really good and we always felt like there was more there was more and I think with Lester um I think Lester Lester had an incredible momentum that was very difficult to stop so so having gone on a fantastic run to avoid relegation um where I think ** did a great job was he didn’t change much he just kept the momentum going so during that run in the previous season they developed a fantastic team spirit a real diehard attitude um which they carried on into the next season with a very minimal amount of tweaking and so their belief just grew and grew and grew but I think what happened was the belief that the top big six clubs or whatever are in invincible died away and I think we started that and I am not trying to claim the glory from Lester because they had the ability to take that to another level but I think I think one or two other clubs Westham for instance believed that they were invincible and could beat teams and they could beat teams on the road and I think there is a mentality shift which has been coming for three years.  Lester have actually taken advantage of it in the circumstances which is that we don’t believe there is a pecking order we don’t believe that all we are here for is to survive in the Premier League and take the TV money you know 1440 points mentality I think is changing I think there are no five or six clubs Stokes is another one who have shown this year that we can actually take these guys on and take them on in their own backyards just think of some of the defeats that those clubs have top six clubs have had at home and I think that’s an indication to me that things aren’t just going to return to normal so I think Lester let down the gauntlet for all of us to try and follow.  A lot of people will believe and I am sure our fans believe if Lester can do it why can’t we?  And that is the worry for the big clubs um that’s the kind of rebellion that they would like to put down and I can’t see how they are going to do that.  They will spend a lot of money I am sure but I think the landscape has changed and I think there is an opportunity for the top half of the Premier League to become much more competitive that is used to be um and there will be teams who want to join that there will be teams who have not had a great season ** will be one looking to build a new ground that got new ownership looking to invest so I can just see the Premier League getting better and better and I think that will help the clubs that play in the Champion's League to perform better in the Champion's League even though there is a contra opinion that says it’s too hard in the Premier League you can’t do both but I think if you manage it right the fact that you have a play and now is the top team in this league you are at your best, I think that you should carry that into the Champion's League in a way that Lester carried the relegation fight into winning the Championship.

Q:  I was going to ask the challenge of managing the Europa League and the Premier League for us next season is that almost a challenge the club will relish? 

A:  Yeah, I think so.  I mean, I think the thing is if you talk yourself out of it you can talk yourself into well it’s pointless trying we are going to have a bad season because we are in the Europa League or you can talk yourself into it and say it can be done you can believe you are good at managing your player’s rest and recovery time that you are good at your sports signs, your backup, how you travel, pay attention to the detail um small small mountains get those right and it’s manageable.  After all Championship clubs do it every year and the number of games that they play and and I just think that ** would have c** six extra games so let’s see how we fit them in how do we recover the score between games what are we doing in terms of travel and so on and work at making it work because the alternative is that you just persuade yourself that you are not going to do it and if you do that you won’t.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Predictions 2016-2017 (Round 2)

Last week I picked 3 out of 10 correctly with 1 correct score for 60 points.   Mark Lawrenson predicted 4 out of ten correctly with 1 correct score for 70 points.  His celebrity guest got 3 out of ten correct with no correct scores.  Paul Merson predicted 5 out of ten correctly with 2 correct scores for 110 points.

Based upon my rules found here, these are my predictions for the next round of games:

Man U-Southampton     2-1
Stoke-Man City                 1-1
Burnley-Liverpool            1-2
Swansea-Hull                     2-1
Tottenham-Palace           2-1
Watford-Chelsea             1-1
West Brom-Everton        1-1
Leicester-Arsenal             2-1
Sunderland-M’bro          2-1
West Ham-Cherries        2-1

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Predictions for End of 2016-2017 Season


I threw together this prediction based upon the results of the last two seasons with last season weighted at twice the weight given to the 2014-2015 season, with some reversion to the mean and an assumption that newly promoted clubs are not that good, but they are, on average, better than the clubs that were relegated.

1.       Manchester City

2.       Arsenal

3.       Tottenham

4.       Manchester United

5.       Leicester

6.       Southampton

7.       Chelsea

8.       Liverpool

9.       West Ham

10.   Everton

11.   Stoke

12.   Swansea

13.   Crystal Palace

14.   Watford

15.   West Brom

16.   Burnley

17.   Hull

18.   Middlesbrough

19.   Bournemouth

20.   Sunderland
I don't necessarily agree with these predictions, but they are what my system generated.

I am skeptical that the Manchester clubs are as improved as people think.  I can see both Leicester and Southampton dropping off more than my system suggests.  On the other hand, I would not want to predict against continued improvement for Southampton.

So I will pick Southampton to improve again in the same way I predicted it last season.  I define improvement as a higher table place, a higher point total, making it to the knock out stage of the Europa League and finishing in the top ten, or winning a trophy and avoiding relegation.

Predictions 2016-2017 (Round 1)

This is my first prediction blog of the new season.  Eleven games into the 2014-2015 season, I created a simple system to pick the results of all Premier League games.  My theory was that my simple system which involved no individualized judgment about the clubs and was simply based upon past performance and the recognition that games are most often won by a single goal would outperform the predictions of experts.  It did.  I used the same system in the 2015-2016 season, with additional rules for the beginning of the season.  It did not outperform the experts.  However, it was not so bad that it proved my theory wrong.

I debated whether to do this again this season.  I kind of wanted to keep the experiment going, but I also have much less free time.  I finally decided to go ahead because otherwise my blog might go months without new posts.  This summer for example I firmly expected to post at least a half dozen things but only posted one.  I have several partially written articles discussing Brexit, Everton’s supposed 100 million pound transfer kitty, a transcription of Les Reed’s video from the beginning of the summer, and a second article about Brexit.  I had planned to do my Football Manager based scouting reports.  So it goes.
The next question was whether to devise a new system or use the same one again.  I decided to use the same one again.  It was simpler and I decided to let the third comparison be the rubber match.
 I will once again compare my systems predictions to those of Mark Lawrenson and Paul Merson. Assuming they make predictions again this year.
MY SYSTEM
Even though I did not change my system from last year I will describe the system again:
I look at the two clubs’ current place in the table.  I subtract three from the home team’s rank.  If the modified table places are within three, I pick a draw.  Otherwise, I pick the team with the best modified table place to win.  (This means that I never pick the home club or the club that currently ranks higher in the table to lose.)
To decide the score, I look at goals allowed by my predicted winning team and the goals scored by my predicted losing team.  If they total more than the games played by both sides I pick a score of 2-1.  Otherwise I pick 1-0. 
If I am picking a draw I will just pick 1-1 because I cannot come up with a simple way to decide between 0-0, 1-1, and 2-2 and I believe a 1-1 draw is the most likely of the three results.
I make some adjustments for when clubs have not played the same number of games to use a per game table position.  I will discuss those the first time they become necessary.
Obviously, this system does not work for the first game of the season—or rather it predicts that all games from the first round will end in a 1-1 draw--unless I treat alphabetical order as significant.  Therefore, for the first six games of the season, I will use last year’s table.  I will treat the three newly promoted clubs as being in an unbreakable tie for 18th place.  I will pick all games as 2-1 or 1-1.
Based upon these rules here are my predictions for the first round of games:
Hull-Leicester                    1-2
Burnley-Swansea             1-2
Palace-West Brom           1-1
Everton-Tottenham        1-2
Middle-Stoke                    1-2
Southampton-Watford   2-1
Man City-Sunderland     2-1
Cherries-Man U                1-2
Arsenal-Liverpool            2-1
Chelsea-West Ham         1-1
MAGIC NUMBERS
At some point last year, I started including the magic numbers for Southampton to finish ahead of each club in the league.  The blog explaining magic numbers can be found here.  I will probably start doing that again at some point but there is no real point this early in the season.  If anyone cares, the magic number for every club versus ever other club is currently 115.
RELEGATION AVOIDANCE
The points total mathematically needed to avoid relegation is also pretty meaningless right now so I will not post it every week until it has some potential meaning or interest.  Again, if anyone cares, it starts the season at 64 and goes to 63 after the first round if two games end in a draw.  It will drift down quite slowly until the maximum points that the current 18th place club can earn (adjusted for unequal numbers of games) becomes the decisive factor.