Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Predictions 2015-2016 FINAL RESULTS

This is my final prediction post with the final totals for the season.

For the last week of the season I picked four games out of 14 correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.  Lawrenson picked nine out of 14 correctly with three correct scores for 180 points.   Merson picked nine out of 14 correctly with four correct scores for a total of 210 points. 
My final total for the season is 179 out of 380 with for 2660 points.  Lawrenson picked 192 out of 380 for 3030 points. Merson  picked 174 out of 370 for a total of 2710 points.
Unlike last year, my predictions were worse than the two experts.  In part this was due to the last week of the season where the experts both had tremendously accurate predictions and I did not.  Prior to that week I was ahead of Merson.  I also attribute my lower success to the limitations my system suffers under during the early weeks of the season when I am relying on last year’s results.  I did not start my predictions until the 2014-2015 season was well underway so I didn’t have to worry about that.  I think that it might make more sense to base my predictions on the last 19 games played by each club rather than the season as a whole or the prior season.  However, figuring that out is something of a pain and would defeat the whole purpose of the experiment which is to show that a simple mechanical system is about as good as relying upon a pundit.  In a sense, although both pundits finished ahead of me, I was close enough to suggest that they were not exceptionally better and their expertise does not add much value to their predictions.
If I do this again next year I will no doubt tinker a bit with the system.

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