For the last week of the season I picked four games out of
14 correctly with no correct scores for 40 points. Lawrenson picked nine out of 14 correctly
with three correct scores for 180 points. Merson
picked nine out of 14 correctly with four correct scores for a total of 210
points.
My final total for the season is 179 out of 380 with for 2660
points. Lawrenson picked 192 out of 380
for 3030 points. Merson picked 174 out of
370 for a total of 2710 points.
Unlike last year, my predictions were worse than the two
experts. In part this was due to the
last week of the season where the experts both had tremendously accurate predictions
and I did not. Prior to that week I was
ahead of Merson. I also attribute my
lower success to the limitations my system suffers under during the early weeks
of the season when I am relying on last year’s results. I did not start my predictions until the
2014-2015 season was well underway so I didn’t have to worry about that. I think that it might make more sense to base
my predictions on the last 19 games played by each club rather than the season
as a whole or the prior season. However,
figuring that out is something of a pain and would defeat the whole purpose of
the experiment which is to show that a simple mechanical system is about as
good as relying upon a pundit. In a
sense, although both pundits finished ahead of me, I was close enough to
suggest that they were not exceptionally better and their expertise does not
add much value to their predictions.
If I do this again next year I will no doubt tinker a bit
with the system.
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