When I did the first draft of this article three weeks ago,
I began by saying “Given our current standing in the league, it is not
impossible that we will have European roster issues next year but it does not
seem all that likely.” Obviously, our
European prospects have dramatically improved since then. Therefore, I will not focus this article
exclusively on Premier League roster issues. (And I will completely ignore Championship
roster issues.)
Please note that, as an American, I find it easier to talk
about rosters than squads. I hope
everyone can live with that.
The primary difference between European rosters and Premier
League rosters is that the Premier League does not currently distinguish among
the types of home grown players. We are
required to have eight home grown players on our roster or we have to leave
empty roster spots. In Europe, eight
home grown players are also required but at least four of them have to be
trained at the club. Unlike last year
where only Schneiderlin and Isgrove were potential club trained players, this
year we have five potential club trained players—at least one of whom,
Ward-Prowse—is likely to be useful.
Each club is required to submit two different European
roster lists at each registration deadline.
The registration deadlines occur immediately prior to each
qualification/playoff round, the group stage, and the knock out stage. There are limitations on registering players
who have already played for someone else in the same competition during the
same season, but those limits do not matter right now.
The “B” list is the easier to explain. A player is eligible to be place on
Southampton’s “B” list if they were born on or after 1 January 1995 and were
eligible to play for Southampton for any two uninterrupted years since their
15th birthday. If they are 16, then need
to have been registered with Southampton for the last two years. There is no limit to the number of players
who can be registered on the B list.
I went through the official Southampton FC website (and
other sources) and came up with a list of 15 B list eligible players for next
season. I chose to stop my list with the
under-18s because it is virtually certain that the younger players will not
play for us in Europe next season. Very likely all the first and second year
scholars would be eligible for the B list.
The club might even include them on the B-List out of a sense of
completeness. B-list players are also available
to play in the Premier League without taking up one of the 25 roster spots.
Southampton can register up to 25 players on the A
list. However, at least eight players
must be “locally trained” and at least four of those players must be
“club-trained.” The other four can be
“association-trained.”
“Club-trained” players are ones who have been registered
with Southampton for three full seasons between ages 15 and 21. The seasons can include the ones where the
player turns 15 or 21. Unlike this time
last year when Southampton had only two club trained players, we now have
five. Only Ward-Prowse has seen
significant playing time, but, if we qualify for Europe, I would expect three
of the other four to be with the club next season unless they are viewed as
literally being worse that nothing.
An “association-trained” player is one who has been
registered with one or more clubs from the same association for three seasons
or 36 months between the ages of 15 and 21.
Obviously, all club-trained players are also association-trained players
for the nation in which the club is registered.
If a club does not have enough club-trained or association-trained
players, it must leave the roster spots empty.
That is why we entered Europe last year with three empty club trained
roster spots.
The following is a list of current Southampton players sorted
into their appropriate categories for the 2016-2017 season. I have taken the liberty
of omitting Stekelenburg based upon my belief that there is virtually no chance
that he will remain with the club next season.
I have, however, left other players on the list whose contracts are
expiring—for example, Kelvin Davis—because they could theoretically remain with
the club and we are unlikely to lose them unless we want to lose them. I have used this Saintsweb post as a
reference for contract expiration dates.
SQUAD LIST
A
LIST
B-List Other Association
Trained Club
Trained
Barnes Clasie Austin Gape
Britt Fonte Bertrand Isgrove
Debayo Gardos Davis, K Stephens
Flannigan Gazzaniga Davis, S Turnbull
Gallagher Juanmi Forster Ward-Prowse
Hesketh Mane Long
Little Martina Rodriguez
McCarthy Pelle
McQueen Romeu
Mugabi Soares
Reed Tadic
Seager Van
Dijk
Sims Wanyama
Targett Yoshida
Wood
Thus, for Premier League purposes, we have twelve home grown
players and 14 other players for a total of 26 players who would have to be
registered on the 25 man Premier League roster in order to be eligible to
play. That is, obviously, not a problem
because Gape, Turnbull, Stephens, and Isgrove will almost certainly not be
taking roster spots unless there is no one else with whom to fill those roster
spots. If we qualify for Europe, the
club will probably fill up its club trained roster spots with Ward-Prowse and
three of Gape, Stephens, Turnbull, and Isgrove.
In any case, the club’s current roster is, technically, just
fine for Europe. No changes need to be
made to fill the 25 European roster slots.
Only one current player needs to be left out. The same is true of the club’s Premier League
roster.
Obviously, this is not realistic. There is no chance that we will not release
or sell some players in the summer transfer window. We will also buy some—especially if we
qualify for Europe.
Right now many people assume that Mane, Pelle, and Wanyama
will be gone this summer. I have no way
of knowing whether this is true but I will assume that it is. I also do not know if the club continues to
view Stephens, Gape, Isgrove and Turnball as Premier League prospects. If we qualify for Europe, we will probably
retain three of them for the European roster.
If we do not, the club might keep them on the roster next year or they
might be transferred, released, or loaned out. Kelvin Davis’ contract is expiring this year
and, at his age, another renewal is less likely. This is our hypothetical roster without
Davis, Mane, Pelle, and Wanyama
Other Association
Trained Club
Trained
Clasie Austin Gape
Fonte Bertrand Isgrove
Gardos Davis,
S Stephens
Gazzaniga Forster Turnbull
Juanmi Long Ward-Prowse
Martina Rodriguez
Romeu
Soares
Tadic
Van Dijk
Yoshida
This leaves us with 22 filled Premier League roster spots
leaving room for three more players who need not be home grown. Since we are
unlikely to use up four roster spots on the club trained players if we are not
in Europe, we actually have 18 filled rosters spots leaving room for seven more
players—one of whom needs to be home grown.
If Mane, Pelle, and Wanyama stay we have exactly 25 players. However, we will not use up 5 roster spots on
the club trained players so we really have four openings—one of whom must be home
grown.
If we qualify for Europe our situation is somewhat
different. Without Pelle, Mane, and
Wanyama we would still use the full four roster slots for club trained players
leaving openings for four players—none of who need be home grown. If all three stay, we only have one opening.
Our European roster (if we have one) and our Premier League
roster do not have to be exactly the same.
Even if Gape, Turnball, and Stephens, for example, are placed on the
European roster as club-trained players they do not have to be put on the
Premier League roster. Instead, we could
use three other players—only one of whom need be home grown. I do not know whether we could or would want
to sign players for our Premier League roster who would not be on our European
roster.
WHAT DO WE NEED
In the following discussion I use the players’ ages as of 1
July 2016.
GOALKEEPERS
Based upon my assumptions, we only have two first team goal
keepers. While the club might be
satisfied with Gazzaniga as the back up to Forster, I am not convinced that the
club would be satisfied with an under 21 player as the back up to Gazzaniga—especially
since we just released our more senior under-21 goalkeeper. On the other hand, it would also be difficult
to sign anyone good as a third string goalkeeper so I have no idea what will
happen. Perhaps this means that Kelvin
Davis will get a contract for one more year.
That being said, it is time to sign Forster to an extended
long term contract. His contract expires
in 2018 so this is the season to extend him unless he is going to be sold this
summer. I would hope that Forster would
recognize that if he goes to a bigger club, he will not be their starting
goalkeeper. On the other hand, if De Gea
goes to Real Madrid this summer, it could start a chain reaction that moves
Forster to Tottenham or some other richer club.
All the more reason to extend his contract sooner rather than later.
DEFENDERS
Van Dijk looks good for the foreseeable future. His contract
expires in 2020.
If Gardos returns from his injury and is able to play at a
Premier League level, it is possible that the club will view itself as being set
at central defender. I think this would
be a mistake.
Fonte is 32 years old and will turn 33 next season. While he might have another good year or two
in him, it is not smart to assume that.
At his age, it is time for his performances to start to drop. His
knowledge and experience will, at some point, no longer be able to compensate
for his increasing physical deficiencies.
Moreover, older players are generally more likely to get injured and often
take longer to recover from injuries.
The Club needs to be prepared to replace Fonte if he starts to fade.
Based upon what we have seen, none of the other defenders
are ready to assume the starting first team role. Possibly, a healthy Gardos could develop to
that point—certainly he was signed in the hopes that would happen. However, Gardos only has two years left on
his contract. The club has to figure out
whether to offer him an extension without knowing how good he really is or risk
losing him cheaply if turns out to be good next season. The rest of this season should be critical to
assessing him for the future, but if things go right he won’t get much playing
time.
Possibly Stephens or Turnbull will develop into a Premier League defender, but given the fact
that they are not currently playing at the Premier League level and Stephens
did not get many games at the Championship level, I do not think that is a
reasonable assumption. The decision to
loan him to League One Coventry City for the rest of this season certainly
suggests that he will not be ready for Premier League football next season.
Yoshida also has only two years left on his contract. I assume he can probably be signed again without much
difficulty. He is unlikely to be
snatched away by a bigger club. However,
it is clear that we do not want him as one of our two starting central
defenders.
The Club probably believes it is ok at fullback. I certainly don’t believe the rumors that
Bertrand will move to Manchester United.
He would only play there until Shaw is healthy and I thought he had
enough of sitting on the bench at a big club.
Targett, who is contracted through 2019 is undoubtedly perceived as an
adequate back up—or more if we stick with the 3-5-2.
Cedric has been improving and is contracted through 2019.
Martina’s contract expires in 2017. I assume no one is too worried about
that. It probably means that the club
would be happy to sign a quality right back but is ok with Martina and Yoshida
for 2016-2017.
MIDFIELD
We are in good shape in the midfield—even if Wanyama
goes. Clasie and Ward-Prowse are both
signed until 2020.
Romeu needs to have his contract extended this summer. The fact that he was only signed to a three
year contract may suggest that the club or Romeu is skeptical about the
long term nature of the relationship.
The club needs to know if Romeu really wants to stay here and should
find a replacement if he does not.
Steven Davis is also a potential problem because he 31—old
by midfielder standards. Given how much
of his game involves constant motion it would not be unreasonable to expect him
to start fading at any time. His
contract expires in 2018. The club
probably will worry about whether they want to extend the contract in 2017 but
no one should assume he can play as often in the future as he has in the past.
ATTACKERS
If Mane and Pelle both go we will need to add at least one
player here. Obviously, Austin is a new
strength here having signed until 2020 when he will be 30.
Long is 29 and only has two years left on his contract. Do we want to extend the contract? He is on fairly high wages. If we re-sign him, by the end of the contract
we will be paying a lot of money for a 32 or 33 year old striker whose primary
strength is his physical endurance and willingness to run for 90 minutes. What are the chances he will still be able to
do that in April 2020? We could sell him
this summer and get decent money given how he has suddenly become the flavor of
the month but then we would have sold our newly acquired depth at striker.
Juanmi is still a question mark. Is he the next Mayuka or will he develop as expected
and hoped? Obviously, there is no way to
know but it would be irresponsible to assume that he will be good enough to
play regularly next year.
Likewise, we still do not know how good Rodriguez will be. It would be unrealistic to assume he will
ever be as good as he was. It may be
unrealistic to assume he will be good enough to play regularly next
season. If he can, it will be a bonus.
Tadic is 27 years old and his contract expires in 2018. He is probably not hugely in demand by bigger
clubs, but it might be a good idea to try to extend his contract this
summer. If he will not sign, the club
will know they need to start looking for his replacement.
We also seem to be short of attacking wingers—unless the
3-5-2 is our new permanent formation and we do not need them.
Thus, it appears that we need:
A back up goal keeper
A centerback who is better than Yoshida and younger than
Fonte
A right back who can challenge Soares for playing time
A midfielder who can take over Steven Davis’ role and an
extension to Romeu’s or Wanyama’s contract (or both)
A replacement for Pelle and Mane—if they are not going to
stay for another year
An attacking winger
Thus, by my calculations we need six players to fill four
European roster spots. If Martina and
Yoshida remain the back up right backs, then we only need five players.
There is no similar problem if we do not qualify for Europe
because we can leave three club trained players off the roster. We could leave four off the roster if one of
our incoming players is home grown. This
would leave us with more than enough openings.
