Predictions 2016-2017 (Round 1)

This is my first prediction blog of the new season.  Eleven games into the 2014-2015 season, I created a simple system to pick the results of all Premier League games.  My theory was that my simple system which involved no individualized judgment about the clubs and was simply based upon past performance and the recognition that games are most often won by a single goal would outperform the predictions of experts.  It did.  I used the same system in the 2015-2016 season, with additional rules for the beginning of the season.  It did not outperform the experts.  However, it was not so bad that it proved my theory wrong.

I debated whether to do this again this season.  I kind of wanted to keep the experiment going, but I also have much less free time.  I finally decided to go ahead because otherwise my blog might go months without new posts.  This summer for example I firmly expected to post at least a half dozen things but only posted one.  I have several partially written articles discussing Brexit, Everton’s supposed 100 million pound transfer kitty, a transcription of Les Reed’s video from the beginning of the summer, and a second article about Brexit.  I had planned to do my Football Manager based scouting reports.  So it goes.

The next question was whether to devise a new system or use the same one again.  I decided to use the same one again.  It was simpler and I decided to let the third comparison be the rubber match.

 I will once again compare my systems predictions to those of Mark Lawrenson and Paul Merson. Assuming they make predictions again this year.

MY SYSTEM

Even though I did not change my system from last year I will describe the system again:

I look at the two clubs’ current place in the table.  I subtract three from the home team’s rank.  If the modified table places are within three, I pick a draw.  Otherwise, I pick the team with the best modified table place to win.  (This means that I never pick the home club or the club that currently ranks higher in the table to lose.)

To decide the score, I look at goals allowed by my predicted winning team and the goals scored by my predicted losing team.  If they total more than the games played by both sides I pick a score of 2-1.  Otherwise I pick 1-0. 

If I am picking a draw I will just pick 1-1 because I cannot come up with a simple way to decide between 0-0, 1-1, and 2-2 and I believe a 1-1 draw is the most likely of the three results.

I make some adjustments for when clubs have not played the same number of games to use a per game table position.  I will discuss those the first time they become necessary.

Obviously, this system does not work for the first game of the season—or rather it predicts that all games from the first round will end in a 1-1 draw--unless I treat alphabetical order as significant.  Therefore, for the first six games of the season, I will use last year’s table.  I will treat the three newly promoted clubs as being in an unbreakable tie for 18^th place.  I will pick all games as 2-1 or 1-1.

Based upon these rules here are my predictions for the first round of games:

Hull-Leicester                    1-2

Burnley-Swansea             1-2

Palace-West Brom           1-1

Everton-Tottenham        1-2

Middle-Stoke                    1-2

Southampton-Watford   2-1

Man City-Sunderland     2-1

Cherries-Man U                1-2

Arsenal-Liverpool            2-1

Chelsea-West Ham         1-1

MAGIC NUMBERS

At some point last year, I started including the magic numbers for Southampton to finish ahead of each club in the league.  The blog explaining magic numbers can be found here.  I will probably start doing that again at some point but there is no real point this early in the season.  If anyone cares, the magic number for every club versus ever other club is currently 115.

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

The points total mathematically needed to avoid relegation is also pretty meaningless right now so I will not post it every week until it has some potential meaning or interest.  Again, if anyone cares, it starts the season at 64 and goes to 63 after the first round if two games end in a draw.  It will drift down quite slowly until the maximum points that the current 18th place club can earn (adjusted for unequal numbers of games) becomes the decisive factor.