Unlike my similar posts in the past two years, there is no immediate need to consider the European Squad rules so, for the most part, I do not. The Premier League Squad rules are much simpler.
Southampton can register up to 25 players on its squad
list. The EPL requires us to have eight
home grown players or leave empty roster spots.
These are players who have spent three seasons at an English or Welsh
club prior or including the season they turned 21. In Europe, eight home grown players are also
required but at least four of them have to be club trained. “Club-trained” players are ones who have been
registered with Southampton for three full seasons between ages 15 and 21. The seasons can include the ones where the
player turns 15 or 21.
However, given the club’s desire to qualify for European
Football next season, the European squad rules are not completely irrelevant to
this summer’s decisions. The Premier
League does not currently distinguish among the types of home grown
players. European competitions do. Therefore, there is some value in retaining up
to fourt home grown players who would also qualify as club-trained players
under European competition rules.I have compiled Southampton’s likely squad list. I have assumed that everyone whose contract is scheduled to terminate this summer will be gone. I have also assumed that everyone whose contract does not expire this summer will still be here. I recognize that the later assumption cannot be true, but it is a place to start. Players marked with “*” would count as club trained for European purposes.
CURRENTLY LIKELY PREMIER LEAGUE SQUAD LIST (AS OF 1/7/17)
Home Grown Other
Austin Boufal
Bertrand Clasie
Davis Gabbiadini
Forster Gardos
Gallagher* Gazzaniga
Long Hojbjerg
McCarthy Pied
McQueen* Romeu
Redmond Soares
Reed* Tadic
Rodriguez Van
Dijk
Stephens* Yoshida
Targett*
Ward-Prowse*
Thus, we have 14 home grown players and 12 other players for
a total of 26 players who would have to be registered on the 25 man Premier
League roster in order to be eligible to play. Obviously, this can’t happen so at least one
of these players is going to be sold, loaned, or released. Some of them were out on loan this year and
likely aren’t coming back. Gallagher, for
example, played regularly for the relegated Blackburn Rovers. Can that make him good enough to play for
Southampton in the EPL? I doubt it but,
realistically, I am in no position to judge.
The same is true for Gazzaniga. I
have no idea if he is good enough for us, but maybe he has been making lots of
great saves.
WHAT DO WE NEED
I began writing this post before the whole Liverpool-Van
Dijk thing exploded. Given that, it
looks more like the club may be trying to hold onto our best players this
summer. This would be consistent with
the expressed desires of Katharina Liebherr (see here). On the other hand, if we are getting new
ownership, her desires will be less important.
I believe that we can, if we want to, keep our players who under long
term contracts.
Of course, that assumption begs the real question
Southampton faces this summer which is whether long term contracts really mean
anything. No one who is important to the
club has a contract that expires this summer.
The most important player whose contract expires next summer is
Yoshida. I assume we can and will resign
him if we want to.
All of our other good players have two or more years left on
their contracts. Some, like Van Dijk,
have much longer term contracts. Selling
Van Dijk this summer when his contract expires in 2022 makes no sense. If the club wanted to sell him this summer it
could have done so without agreeing to the expensive contract extension last
summer. For that reason, I think the club is serious about the ridiculously high
price tag they have put on him.
The club is in a much stronger position than it has ever
been to turn down offers from richer and bigger clubs. We shall see if it makes any difference.
GOALKEEPERS
Forster
Gazzaniga
Lewis
McCarthy
We appear to be adequately stocked at this position. Lewis has the advantage of not using a roster
spot and probably being good enough to be the back up to the back up. Of course, there is no point in keeping
Gazzaniga around unless he is going to play so he probably will be sold or
loaned out again. Given that he has two
years left on his contract, this is the time to sell him for full value, but
his full value may not be high enough to make that a relevant consideration.
On the other hand, Forster was not good enough this
year. If management agrees with that
assessment and does not believe it was simply a one off bad year, we need a new
first team keeper. However, Forster is
under contract until 2021 and is not likely to be happy as a back up. The club may well be locked into playing him
even though he had a bad season. Of
course, his bad season may not reflect his true level of skill. He was certainly better in both of his prior
seasons with us.
FULLBACKS
Bertrand
McQueen
Pied
Soares
Targett
These spots seem fine unless we are going to lose Soares or
Bertrand. However, they have three and
four years left on their contracts, respectively. Thus, there is no need to sell and, as with
Van Dijk, there was no need to negotiate the longer contracts if a sale this
summer was contemplated.
McQueen and Targett will need to be retained for 2018-2019
in case we qualify for Europe.
CENTRAL DEFENDERS
Gardos
McCarthy (not the goalkeeper)
Stephens
Van Dijk
Yoshida
I thought Gardos looked like he had potential the few times
he got on the field in past seasons.
However, he has been injured too much to rely on and, plainly, he was
not thought to be good enough to play ahead of either Stephens or Yoshida. There is probably not much profit to be made
in selling him, but if he is not good enough to start, his roster spot is needed
so I expect him to go this summer.
Stephens will need to be retained for 2018-2019 in case we
qualify for Europe.
This means that we are short in this position even if Van
Dijk stays. Given the recent popularity of playing three in the back, maybe we
need to recruit for this position to open up that option. Playing the center of
the three backs would be a perfect role for Van Dijk. It would give him more leeway to roam
forward—something that he is very good at. Thus, we should recruit two new centre
backs—three if Van Dijk goes.
DEFENSIVE MIDFIELDERs
Clasie
Davis
Hojbjerg
Reed
Romeau
Reed is not getting a chance to play here so he probably
should be sold. He does have the
potential value of fitting into a European Roster next season, but given how
little he played this year that does not seem like enough of a reason to keep
him.
Clasie and Hojbjerg are probably not entirely happy with
their playing time this past season especially after the fixture congestion
ended. I think it is too early to give
up on either of them.
Davis is 32. Given
how much running around his job entails, we need to be prepared for a drop off
in his performance this year. Plus, we
are in trouble if we lose Romeau to injury (or transfer). We need to strengthen at this position unless
we are going to play three in the back and maybe even then.
ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS
Boufal
Redmond
Tadic
Ward-Prowse
Given the partial interchangeability of this position with
the two adjacent positions, we are probably set here. Boufal needs better judgment on when to pass
and when to shoot. I assume that is
something that can be taught.
Ward-Prowse needs to slightly improve everything so that he can stay on
the field for set pieces. Also, he
should be taking penalties until he proves that he cannot handle the job. Redmond had a decent first year for us and,
given his age, should improve. Tadic had
an off year but it wasn’t horrible and he should improve next season. (By the way, I don’t believe he has a 13m
release clause in his contract.) Unless
the black box finds an undiscovered gem or we find a way to sign a world class
player, I don’t see a need for change here.
STRIKERS
Austin
Gabbiadini
Gallagher
Long
Rodriguez
Long is a puzzlement.
He is very useful in so many ways, but he doesn’t seem to score as much
as he should. He is also 30 and his game
involves running around a lot. He will
be 33 when his contract expires. I would
expect his endurance to start to fade this season, if it hasn’t already. Certainly, it won’t last until he is 33. I would sell him now if we can get a
satisfactory replacement and I would plan on selling him next summer if he is
still here. He might be someone to sell
for too much money in January if we don’t need him but a relegation threatened
team thinks he will help. However, I do
not think the club plans to sell him right now.
Rodriguez will be 28 this season. It seems plain he is not going to be the
player he once looked like he would be.
In retrospect, it is too bad we didn’t sell him to Tottenham when he was
injured. (I know, that probably wasn’t a
real option, but everyone was panicking like it was going to happen.) He needs more playing time. We need a better player.
Aside from his possible usefulness on a European roster next
season, Gallagher is a question mark. I
certainly can’t pretend to judge his quality level. He needs playing time so he should be loaned
out, but why keep him if he is not going to be good enough to play for us. I assume he will not be on our roster this
season.
Austin and Gabbiadini are obviously going to stay. Let’s hope that what we saw when they were at
their best was reflective of their actual level of ability.
MY SPECULATIVE MODIFED ROSTER
Home Grown Other
Austin Boufal
Bertrand Clasie
Davis Gabbiadini
Forster Hojbjerg
Long Pied
McCarthy Romeu
McQueen* Soares
Redmond Tadic
Stephens* Van
Dijk
Targett* Yoshida
Ward-Prowse*
These assumptions leave us with 4 roster spaces.
WHAT DO WE NEED?
Two centre backs
A defensive midfielder
A striker
We cannot really afford to strengthen at striker—something I
think we clearly need—unless we remove two of our current strikers from our
squad list for the new season. Loaning
out Gallagher shouldn’t be a problem, but is anyone really going to want to buy
Rodriguez from us or pay him what he is making here. I think that is a doubtful so, if we are
going to unload him, we will probably have to pay for the privilege.
Central defender, where we will need to get rid of Gardos,
presents a similar problem.
I could be wrong.
Possibly Gardos and Rodriguez will become great players this year. Possibly Stephens and McCarthy are both ready
to become full time Premier League starting central defenders. Maybe we can make it through a full season
with Yoshida as a top-notch starter.
On the other hand, if none of those good things happen and
Long and Davis start to show the effects of aging, we could have trouble.
Of course, none of my observations will be news to the board. I have not lost confidence in Les Reed and
the management of the club, but this summer presents the club with a new set
of problems. It was easy to create and
fill squad openings in the past because we were selling expensive good players
for lots of money. It will be harder to
unload players we don’t want while trying to find and buy players that would
improve our squad especially if we don’t have lots of money to spend because we
are keeping our best players.
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