I Make Predictions (Round 37)

Edit:  I made an error with Stoke's magic number which was zero not three.

Last round Mark Lawrenson got six games right for 12 points.  His celebrity guest got four games right for four points.  Merson got six games right for eight points.  I got three games right for seven points.

Since I started making these predictions I have predicted 126 out of 249 games correctly for 187 points.  Lawrenson predicted 125 games out of 246 correctly for 173 points. Merson predicted 123 games out of 242 correctly for 174 points.

It is becoming clear that my system is not as accurate late in the season when bad teams start to fight to avoid relegation while many better clubs are no longer playing their best because their games don’t seem to matter.  If Lawson continues to outperform me by making better picks in the relegation zone, he might pass me for the season.  Since my system would not provide clear guidance at the beginning of the season, it may be that it is (over the course of the season) not significantly better or worse than picks by the pundits.  Of course, that doesn’t say much for pundit picking skill.  If I decide to do this again next season, it will be a fairer test because I will start at the beginning of the season.

I will link to Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions when they are published. There will be found here and here.

Here are my predictions using the same rules outlined here.    For the first time, my modifications to adjust for clubs that have played a different number of games actually matter.  They change the result from a draw between Sunderland and Leicester to a Sunderland win.

Southampton-Aston Villa             1-0

Burnley-Stoke                                 0-1

QPR-Newcastle                              1-1

Sunderland-Leicester                    2-1

Spurs-Hull                                       2-1

West Ham-Everton                       2-1

Liverpool-Palace                            2-1

Swansea-Man City                        1-1

Man U-Arsenal                              1-1

West Brom-Chelsea                     0-1

MAGIC NUMBERS

Here are our magic numbers for the entire League as explained here:

I have left the clubs in the same order as when I first posted this list because I find it more interesting that way.

Strictly speaking magic numbers do not go negative—when the number reaches zero you have clinched finishing ahead of that team—that is why the number is magic.  Nevertheless, I am going to continue calculating negative magic numbers because that information is useful to me in comparing the various clubs.  Anyone who is bothered by this can just treat all negative numbers as zero.

Chelsea                 36 (no one can catch them)

Man City              23 (we can no longer catch them)

Man U                  18 (we can no longer catch them)

Arsenal                 26 (we can no longer catch them)

Tottenham          8

Liverpool             12

West Ham           -3

Swansea              6

Stoke                    0

Newcastle           -14

Everton               -6

Palace                   -8

Sunderland         -11

West Brom         -10

Aston Villa           -10

Burnley                -21 (Relegated)

Hull                       -16

QPR                       -23 (Relegated)

Leicester              -13

The points total mathematically needed to avoid relegation is now 41 and is calculated purely by looking at how many points Hull can still get.  Crystal Palace and West Brom reached safety this past weekend.

We have clinched 8^th place.   Once again, if everything goes right this weekend, we could clinch 7^th place.  However, everything going right is looking more and more like an alien concept.  On the other hand, if we beat Villa, given the goal differential, everything has to go wrong in the remaining three relevant games to finish 8^th.