I Make Predictions (Round 38 plus)

This is my final prediction blog of the season.  It also includes the mid-week game because its results will not affect my predictions for the weekend (unless Arsenal gives up a huge number of goals).

Last round Mark Lawrenson got one games right for one points.  His celebrity guest got five games right for seven points.  Merson got five games right for seven points.  I got three games right for five points.

Since I started making these predictions I have predicted 129 out of 259 games correctly for 192 points.  Lawrenson predicted 126 games out of 256 correctly for 174 points. Merson predicted 128 games out of 252 correctly for 181 points.

I will link to Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions when they are published. There will be found here and here.   I assume that neither will predict the mid-week game.

Here are my predictions using the same rules outlined here.

Arsenal-Sunderland        1-0

Arsenal-West Brom        1-0

Aston Villa-Burnley         2-1

Chelsea-Sunderland       1-0

Palace-Swansea              1-1

Everton-Tottenham        1-1

Hull-Man U                       0-1

Leicester-QPR                   2-1

Man City-Southampton  2-1

Newcastle-West Ham     1-1

Stoke-Liverpool                1-1

MAGIC NUMBERS

Here are our magic numbers for the entire League as explained here:

I have left the clubs in the same order as when I first posted this list because I find it more interesting that way.

Strictly speaking magic numbers do not go negative—when the number reaches zero you have clinched finishing ahead of that team—that is why the number is magic.  Nevertheless, I am going to continue calculating negative magic numbers because that information is useful to me in comparing the various clubs.  Anyone who is bothered by this can just treat all negative numbers as zero.

I should mention that, at this point, the magic numbers are slightly misleading for us.  Due to goal differential our magic numbers with Liverpool and Tottenham are really 4 and 5 respectively.

Chelsea                30 (no one can catch them)

Man City              20 (we can no longer catch them)

Man U                  13 (we can no longer catch them)

Arsenal                 21 (we can no longer catch them)

Tottenham           5

Liverpool             6

West Ham           -9

Swansea              0

Stoke                    -5

Newcastle           -20

Everton                  -9

Palace                   -11

Sunderland         -16

West Brom         -13

Aston Villa           -16

Burnley                 -26 (Relegated)

Hull                        -22

QPR                       -26 (Relegated)

Leicester              -18

The points total mathematically needed to avoid relegation is now 38 and is calculated purely by looking at how many points Hull can still get.  Leicester and Aston Villa achieved safety this past weekend.  Strangely, the mess at Newcastle has reached the point where I think I want them to be relegated, but I still expect it to be Hull.

We have clinched 7^th place.   We can finish 5^th, 6^th, or 7th.