I Make Predictions (Round 23)

I did better this round.   Mark Lawrenson got four games right for four points.  His celebrity guest got five games right for seven points.  Merson got four games right for six points.  I got six games right for eight points.  At least I think this is right.  Merson made it hard for me by putting his predictions in the wrong order.

Since I started eleven rounds ago I have predicted 53 out of 110 games correctly for 83 points.  Lawrenson predicted 54 games correctly for 70 points. Merson predicted 52 games correctly for 70 points.

I will link to Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions when they are published.  They will be found here and here.

Here are my predictions using the same rules outlined here. 

Hull-Newcastle                                                 1-2

Palace-Everton                                                 1-1

Liverpool-West Ham                                       1-1

Man U-Leicester                                              1-0

Stoke-QPR                                                        2-1

Sunderland-Burnley                                       2-1

West Brom-Spurs                                            1-2

Chelsea-Man City                                            2-1

Arsenal-Aston Villa                                          1-0

Southampton-Swansea                                  1-0

I have been thinking about an inconsistency in my system.  Roughly, one in three games ends in a draw and one in three games is decided by two or more goals.  Yet, I am willing to predict draws, but not two goal victories.  I did not think about this when I created the system, but I am satisfied with the discrepancy.

If you are trying to get the result (but not the score) right, you need draws because they count as a different result.  You do not need two goal victories because they are the same result as a one goal victory.

When you are trying to get the score right, draws do not hurt your chances very much.  Realistically speaking you are only going to pick 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 draws and 1-1 draws seem to be the most common.  A 1-1 draw is, therefore, a result that is likely to occur.

Similarly, 1-0 and 2-1 victories are very common results.  3-2 victories are much less common, so there is no reason to pick them.  On the other hand, once you decided to try to predict victories by two or more goals, you have opened many more possibilities: 2-0, 3-1, 4-2, 3-0, 4-1, 5-2, 4-0, etc.  Even if you are right about the team that is going to win and by how much, you are still very likely to get the exact score wrong.