England’s Coefficient Problems.

We all know that four English clubs qualify for the Champions League: three in the group stage and one in the final play-off round.  However, England does not own these four qualifications spot as a matter of divine right.  Instead, they are awarded based on the recent performances of England’s clubs in European competition.  England’s poor performances this past year have put its fourth qualification spot in jeopardy.  (My sources for this article are found here and here.)

The problem is not imminent in the sense that England’s fourth Champions League’s spot is safe for both 2015-2016 and 2016-2017.  However, after that the fourth spot is in severe jeopardy.

In the competition for the fourth Champion’s League’s spot for 2016-2017, England is in second place.  The county coefficients are (currently—before the Champion’s league’s final is played):

Spain               99.713

 

England           80.391

 

Germany         79.415

 

Italy                 70.510

Since the top three nations receive four spots, it looks like England has a comfortable ten point cushion on Italy.  However, that cushion is not real. 

In the race for the fourth Champion’s League’s slot in 2017-2018, the ratings for 2010-2011 drop out of the calculations.  In that year, England’s coefficient was 18.357.  Germany’s was 15.666 and Italy’s was 11.571.  Thus, England’s .976 lead over Germany turns into a 1.715 deficient.  England’s 9.881 lead over Italy is reduced to a lead of 3.095.  (See here. )

The following year, when the results of the 2011-2012 season drop out, England loses an additional 3.893 to Italy.  (See here.)  In other words, if England and Italy play equally well in European Competition this coming season, England will maintain their fourth Champions League spot, but if the same thing happens the season after that, England will only have three Champions League spots in 2018-2019.  If England performs as poorly this coming season as it did this past season, Italy will take the fourth spot in 2017.  This also means that one less English club will qualify for European football because there will still be only three Europa League spots.

Why England has fallen off in European competition is  question to which there is undoubtedly no clear answer.  However, this year’s performances illustrate a significant problem.  The county’s coefficient is calculated by taking the total number of points earned by each of the country’s clubs and dividing it by the number of clubs.  This past season, England was hurt badly by the pitiful performance of Hull City who earned only 2.5 points by winning two, drawing one, and losing one games in the qualification rounds.  However, in truth, only Arsenal and Chelsea performed well enough to provide a positive contribution to the county coefficient.  Liverpool earned only ten points of which four were awarded merely for participating in the group stage of the Champion’s League.  Those four points were going to be earned by whomever finished second in the Premier League.

 

This coming season presents a particular problem for England given that West Ham has qualified through the Fair Play spot.  Even if West Ham were to win all eight of its qualifying matches, it would only earn eight points—not enough to help England’s coefficient unless they also did well in the group phase of the Europa League.  The same is true for Southampton. In our potential four qualifying matches we can earn no more than four points by winning all four games.

 

England’s problem undoubtedly arises out of a combination of England’s better teams performing unexpectedly poorly in the Champion’s League and its lesser teams not taking the Europa League seriously.  Also, clubs have qualified that were clearly not ready for European competition:  Hull City this year and Wigan last year.  But nearly every country has this problem.  This year, Real Sociedad earned only three points for Spain and FSV Mainz 05 earned only 1.5 points for Germany.  (On the other hand, Italy’s worst club, Roma, still earned 12 points.)  However, recently English clubs have performed poorly in the Europa League even allowing for the clubs that were not really ready for the competition.

 

The rule change that took away the FA cup runner up qualification spot for the Europa League should help.  This year Southampton qualified instead of Aston Villa.  In theory, Southampton, as the seventh place club, is in better shape to compete in Europe next season than Aston Villa.   Had this rule been in effect last year, Manchester United would have qualified instead of Hull City—although Manchester United was pretty bad at the start of the season so maybe the results would have been the same.

 

Of course, there are no guarantees.  If both Southampton and West Ham crash out before the group phase of the Europa League England’s coefficient will probably drop below Italy’s.

Looking at past performances, England probably needs to earn around 16 national points this coming season.  Since there are eight English clubs in European competition that means the clubs as a group need to earn 128 points.  Twelve points will come from the three clubs that have already qualified for the Champions League group phase.  Manchester United can earn four more points by also qualifying.  If all eight English clubs qualified for group phases and won all of their group games that would total 96 points.  Of course, that is not going to happen, but it shows how tight things could be.  If both West Ham and Southampton failed to make the group phase that would be 24 points that could not be earned (minus points earned in qualifying rounds—likely West Ham would win a few games before being eliminated). The only way these points could be made up is by other teams advancing into the knock out phases thereby earning bonus points plus more points for winning or drawing matches.

 

The primary message is that Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton, West Ham (and Manchester United—if they lose their Champions League qualifying match) need to take the Europa League seriously.  If English clubs other than the current top four are to have any serious hope of getting into the Champions League—even on an occasional basis—they need the fourth spot to remain in English hands.  That requires good performances in the Europa League even if that effort somewhat interferes with the club’s performance in the Premier League.  In that sense, Everton was a model citizen this year earning 14 points in Europe while accepting, albeit unwillingly, a drop off in their league performance.