I have twice used Football Manager (FM), along with the rest of the internet, to construct a plausible list of transfer targets for Southampton FC. These posts can be found here and here. I did a follow up after the Summer 2014 transfer window closed found here.
This time I am using the final FM 2015 database which rated the players as of the end of the January 2015 transfer window. I am not going to try to do everything in one post. In this post I will focus on the striker position.
As always, I am aware of the fact that FM is just a game and does not perfectly reflect reality. It has a strong tendency to overrate players on big clubs and underrate players on smaller clubs. On the other hand, the FM database is used for scouting by top level clubs so it is not total nonsense. Also, I do not have my own team of scouts roving the world looking for players for Southampton so I have no choice but to use FM if I am going to write on this subject since I am not going to use FIFA 15.
Once again I created a large data base and played as the manager of Manchester United because they have lots of relatively high quality scouts. Even though I scouted the maximum number of players possible for over a month of game time, there are still many unscouted players so this system is not perfect. I have also done my best to eliminate players who obviously wouldn’t sign for us either because they are too good for us or too expensive for us. I also removed Mario Balotelli from the list.
My initial screen selected for players with composure and
finishing of 12 or higher. I considered
only players between the ages of 21 and 28 which is 22 and 29 this summer. I reasoned that we were looking for players
who could play for us now, not developmental projects. I have listed the players’ ages as of 1 July
2015.
This time I did not eliminate non-EU players from the search
because the new work permit rules better allow me to judge who could get a work
permit. Rather than just listing my
final results, I have chosen to briefly explain why I ruled each of the listed
players in or out. I hope it isn’t too
tedious. I will probably not go into
such detail in future posts unless this post gets rave reviews. The players I ultimately concluded belonged
on the list are bolded.
My process yielded this preliminary list (in CA order):
NAME CLUB Age CA PA
Giuseppe Rossi Florentina 28 162 168Carlos Bacca Sevilla 28 155 160
Max Kruse BMG 27 152 152
Kevin Gameiro* Sevilla 28 151 154
Lucas Pratto Athletic Mineiro 27 149 155
Mattia Destro* Roma 24 147 165
Marcelo Moreno Changchun Yata 28 145 149
Mauro Icardi* Inter 22 144 170
Salomon Rondon Zenit 26 144 155
Stephan El Shaarawy* AC Milan 22 143 170
Alvaro Morata Juventus 22 143 163
Mame Diouf Stoke 27 143 151
Sebastian Giovinco Toronto FC 28 143 148
Alexandre Pato Corinthians 26 142 162
Fabio Borini Liverpool 24 142 152
Simone Zaza* Sassuolo 24 142 152
Josip Drmic Leverkusen 22 141 157
Leo Baptistao Atletico Madrid 22 140 160
Danny Ings Burnley 22 140 157
Aleksandr Kokorin Dinamo Moscow 24 140 155
Emmanuel Emenike Fenerbahce 28 140 145
Ola Toivonen Stade Rennais FC 28 140 143
Diafra Sakho West Ham 25 139 144
Jonathan Soriano FC Red Bull Salzburg 29 139 141
Rodrigo De Paul Valencia 21 138 160
Leandro Damiao* Santos 25 138 150
Andrej Kramaric Leicester 24 138 150
Admir Mehmedi Freiburg 24 138 147
Luan Atletico Mineiro 24 138 144
Tomer Hemed Almeria 28 138 144
Cristhian Stuani Espanyol 28 138 144
Facundo Ferreyra Shakhtar Donetsk 24 137 150
Douglas Modeste* Hoffenheim 27 137 142
Bas Dost Wolfsburg 26 137 138
Willian Cruzerio 28 136 140
Pablo Velazquez Atletico National 28 136 138
Nabil Ghilas FCP 25 135 148
Abel Hernandez Hull City 24 135 145
Marcelo Cirino Atletico Paranaense 23 135 143
Charlie Austin QPR 25 135 139
Luciano Corinthians 22 134 143
*Marks players who were on my January 2015 transfer window list of potential strikers.
For contrast, here are Southampton’s current strikers:
Osvaldo 29 152 156
Jay Rodriguez 26 148 152
Granziano Pelle 29 142 142
Shane Long 28 139 143
Sam Gallagher 19 112 -8
Jay Rodriguez 26 148 152
Granziano Pelle 29 142 142
Shane Long 28 139 143
Sam Gallagher 19 112 -8
Obviously, at 41 the preliminary list of potential transfer
targets is too long. However, the
process of looking at the players more closely will eliminate most of
them. Although it will greatly
lengthen this post, I have decided to show my work and explain how I ruled in
or out each player. Unlike my usual practice, I have decided not to provide
links for everything. If I did there
would be three to fifteen links for each player.
I have checked both Transfermarkt
and Wikipedia for each player as well as other sites.
Giuseppe Rossi is
coming off a season long injury. He may
well view himself as too good for us. His release clause is reported to be 35
million Euros and he has two more years on his contract. There is no way he will be sold to us for any
price we might be willing to pay.
Carlos Bacca has three more years on his contract and a 30
million Euro release clause. So he is
out of our reach. He is, however,
reported to be in play with Arsenal and Manchester United possibly interested in him.
Max Kruse was signed by Wolfsburg last month after they
activated his 12 million euro release clause.
Kevin Gameiro is unlikely to give up Champions League
football to come to us even though we could afford to give him a pay raise.
Lucas Pratto just signed for his current club. So I consider
him to be unavailable.
Mattia Destro was
loaned to AC Milan in January.
Allegedly, they declined to take up their 16 million Euro option to buy
him. Sampdora is supposedly interested. I guess this means he is a plausible transfer
target for us.
Marcelo Moreno probably could not get a work permit. He has also failed to do the job in Europe
including an unsuccessful loan spell at Wigan.
Also, he transferred to his new Chinese club in February (after the
closing of the FM 2015 data base). We
will not be buying him.
Mauro Icardi has just signed a contract extension to 2019;
rejecting apparent interest from Chelsea and Manchester United.
Salomon Rondon was bought by Zenit for £15.8 million in January 2014. Since he appears to be doing well there, that
puts him out of our price range.
Stephan El Shaarawy was purchased by AC Milan for £13.6 million in 2011. He has had injury problems the last two years
and Milan will undoubtedly want to make a profit if they sell him. Given his injuries and the three years left
on his contract, they are unlikely to sell him for any price we could afford to
pay for such a risky player. It looks
like his brother/agent is trying to talk up a transfer to Arsenal .
Alvaro Morata did ok with Juventus this year so I do not see
any reason he would want to join us.
Also, Real Madrid has an option to buy him back for 35 million
Euros. That would seem like a barrier
for any transfer to us at a price we can afford.
Mame Diouf was
signed by Stoke on a free transfer last summer.
We could probably buy him off Stoke for enough money but it doesn’t seem
particularly likely. Nevertheless, it is
not a transfer I could rule out.
Sebastian Giovinco just joined Toronto FC from Juventus this
past January. I doubt he will be
available before the end of the MLS season, if then. By the way, Jozy Altidore thinks that
Giovinco would have helped Juventus in the Champions League final.
Alexandre Pato
has probably not played in enough recent international games for Brazil to get
a work permit unless we play £10
million or more for him. Corinthians paid £12.2 million for him in January
2013. They sent him on a two year loan
to Sao Paulo in early 2014. However, he
is supposedly available in June and July for 15 million Euros. (I am relying upon Wikipedia for this
information since the original articles are in Portuguese.) He did well for AC Milan for a while before
fading with injuries. He refused a
transfer to PSG at one point. I have no
idea whether buying him is a good idea, but on the surface it appears he is
technically available.
Fabio Borini
refused a £14 million permanent
transfer to Sunderland last summer. We
might be more appealing than Sunderland. Lazio is rumored to be interested in
him and can offer him Champions League football this season. It does appear
that he is available and not out of our price range. Also, he just got married to an English model so he might want to stay in England.
Simone Zaza is
subject to pre-negotiated 15 million Euro buy out clause with Juventus. Supposedly both Tottenham and Juventus have
expressed interest in buying him, but he has said he will only leave Sassuolo
for a “great team.” Given Juventus’
interest that probably excludes both Tottenham and us. On the other hand, he does appear to be on
the market so maybe Ronald can sell us to him.
I have a soft spot for him because of how good he was for me in one of
my FM saves.
Josip Drmic
signed for Leverkusen in May 2014 for £6
million following the relegation of FC Nurnburg. Arsenal and Everton
were supposedly interested. He did not
have a good year so he is probably available at a price we can afford.
Leo Baptistao was
purchased by Atletico Madrid in 2013 for £6.2 million. He has spent a year
and a half of the subsequent two years out on loan with the most recent season
being injury filled. Supposedly, both
Aston Villa and Borussia Dortmund are interested in him. This suggests that he is probably both too
good for us and not good enough for us.
In any case, he is likely available.
Danny Ings is
likely to have signed for Liverpool by the time I post this but he has not yet
signed as I write this.
Aleksandr Kokorin is playing for a club that has qualified
for the Europa League at the same level we did.
He appears to be an important part of the Russian national team and I
have found nothing to suggest that he is for sale. According to FM he is being paid £71 a week so I doubt we can afford him even
if he were buyable.
Emmanuel Emenike was charged with, but acquitted of, match
fixing. I do not think we are stupid
enough to sign him under such circumstances unless we know he was actually
innocent. Since I have no way of knowing
that he is actually innocent, he is not on my list. He also attempted to leave
a game either because his own fans racially abused him or because they jeered
him for poor play. Perhaps it was
both. Also, his father just died. Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and
Fulham have all been listed as being interested in him. His club supposedly
just rejected a 5 million Euro offer from Dinamo Moscow because they want 10 million.
Ola Toivonen was
purchased by Stade Rennais FC in January 2014 for £2.2 million. He has stated that he regrets not pushing for a Liverpool
move in 2010. There is some suggestion that he might be available and want to
move to England, but it is expressed in the context of his current club wanting
to off load his salary. However, most of
the articles about him are not in English so this may not be a fair or accurate
assessment. Nevertheless, we could
undoubtedly afford him and his wages.
Diafra Sakho was allegedly purchased last summer for £4.4
million. He did well. Since West Ham correctly views themselves as
in competition with us I assume they will not sell us their best goal scorer
from last season. (Andy Carroll is
probably available, however.)
Jonathan Soriano has scored a lot of goals for Red
Bull. However, he extended his contract
in January and I doubt they would want to sell him although I am sure we could
offer enough to change their mind.
However, I don’t think we are looking for another striker about to turn
30. At least I hope not. On that reasonable, but subjective, basis I
am excluding him from my viable target category. Won’t I look stupid if we buy him.
Rodrigo De Paul was signed by Valencia last summer for £4.2
million. Given what he has done so
far, he does not appear to be an improvement for us in the short term. On the
other hand, Valencia seems to view him as a star of the future and Liverpool
and Arsenal are reported to be interested.
Once again, I am going to subjectively decide that he is not a viable
target for us this summer because he is only likely to leave for big money to a
bigger club.
Leandro Damiao has been sent on a season long loan to
Cruziero after a subpar year at Santos.
I have no idea if the loan deal leaves him available but given that he
twice thought Totteham wasn’t good enough for him I doubt he would come to
us. Since nearly everything written about
him is not in English I can’t figure out much more, but he seems an unlikely
target for us.
Andrej Kramaric was signed by Leicester in January. He didn’t seem to help them that much. Despite Shane Long, I view him as being
unavailable. He is also probably not
good enough for us.
Admir Mehmedi was
purchased by Frieburg last summer for £5.3
million following a successful loan.
Last season was less successful although I can’t find any English
articles explaining what happened. He
just didn’t score very much. We could
probably afford him and I cannot judge whether he is good enough so I will
leave him on the list.
Luan is an uncapped Brazilian about whom little information
is available in English. However, he
would not get a work permit.
Tomer Hemed was
signed on a free transfer last summer.
FM says he is both Polish and Israeli so he would not have work permit
problems. Everton was supposedly
interested in him two years ago. Once
again, we could probably afford him and I cannot judge whether he is good enough
so I will leave him on the list.
Cristhian Stuani
(Wikipedia spells his first name differently, but I am going with FM and
Transfermarkt) moved to Espanyol two years ago for an undisclosed fee that
Transfermarkt has declined to guess at. FM says it was £1 million. In March, he extended his contract to 2018 so
he is probably not available unless we really over pay.
Facundo Ferreyra never played for Newcastle during his full
season loan. Newcastle was pretty
bad at times so I think it unreasonable to believe that they completely failed to give a
good player a chance to play. Therefore, I must assume either that he is not good enough
for us or that there is some other big problem.
Douglas Modeste
was reportedly for sale last January for £5 million but nothing happened.
He was not much help to Blackburn in his half season loan the year they
got relegated. Supposedly Hull, Swansea, West Ham, and Crystal Palace were
interested. I guess that makes him a
plausible target for us.
Bas Dost’s status
as a plausible transfer target for us needs no elaboration.
Willian is an uncapped Brazilian so I do not believe he
could get a work permit.
Pablo Velazquez signed with his new club on a free transfer
in January according to Transfermarkt.
FM says it was a loan deal. That
makes him unavailable under my system.
Also, I don’t think he could get a work permit.
Nabil Ghilas was
on loan at Cordoba this past year. FC
Porto bought him for £3.3
million two years ago so we can probably afford him.
Abel Hernandez was purchased last summer by Hull city for £10.6 million. He was not
a success and starts the next season with a three match ban for violent
conduct. I feel confident in ruling him
out as a transfer target.
Marcelo Cirino is an uncapped Brazilian currently on a one
year loan. I make him both unavailable
and unable to get a work permit.
Charlie Austin is
obviously a potential target for us.
Luciano is also an
uncapped Brazilian who will not be able to get a work permit. Also, there are way too many footballers
going by the name Luciano.
Thus, I end up with a list of 14 possible transfer targets. Once again this list demonstrates the fine
line between players who are too good or too expensive for us and players who
are probably not good enough for us.
Frankly, if I was relying only upon FM’s numbers to evaluate players’
skill, the only players on the list with whom I would be happy are Zaza and
Borini. Since I believe FM underrates them,
I would also be happy with Dost and Austin.
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