Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 34.5) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

These are my mid-week predictions—all adjusted for uneven number of games played.

This past weekend I picked three games out of 10 correctly with two correct scores for 90 points.  Lawrenson picked four out of 10 correctly with no correct scores for 40 points.   Merson picked five out of 10 correctly with one correct score for a total of 80 points. 

My current total for the season is 157 out of 334 with for 2350 points.  Lawrenson has picked 166 out of 334 for 2470 points. Merson has picked 152 out of 329 for a total of 2250 points

Lawrenson’s new predictions can be found here.  I don’t think Merson made mid-week predictions.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can normally  be found here but the blogger system is not letting me put a link in so I am moving on.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Newcastle-Man City       1-2

West Ham-Watford        2-1

Liverpool-Everton            2-1

Man U-Palace                    1-0

Arsenal-West Brom        1-0

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. We can still finish as low as a draw for 16^th place with Crystal Palace—although our goal differential should see us through--or as high as third place which seems unlikely. Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than a three way tie for second place—although their goal differential might land them in fourth.  However, if Arsenal and Manchester City do not win out and draw their game against each other and Leicester does not lose all of their remaining games, Leicester is in the group stage of the Champions League without playing in a qualifying round.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                     35

Tottenham                         31

Arsenal                                26

Manchester City                25

Manchester United           21

West Ham                           18

Liverpool                             19

Watford                                 9

Stoke City                              9

Everton                                 7

Chelsea                                 9

Crystal Palace                      1

West Brom                           5

Bournemouth                     3

Swansea City                       2

Norwich City                      -6

Newcastle                           -7

Sunderland                         -5

Aston Villa                           -16

A win against Aston Villa guarantees us at least 13^th place and maybe 12^th place.