Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 32) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past round I picked six games out of 10 correctly with one correct score for 90 points.  Lawrenson picked five out of 10 correctly with one correct score for 80 points.   Merson picked six out of 10 correctly with two correct scores for a total of 120 points. 

My current total for the season is 136 out of 303 with for 1990 points.  Lawrenson has picked 149 out of 303 for 2220 points. Merson has picked 137 out of 299 for a total of 2040 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  I had to make adjustments for unequal numbers of games played by using a table calculated by points per game rather than by current position on the table.   This caused the Sunderland-West Brom game to be predicted as a draw rather than a West Brom victory and the Liverpool-Totteham game to be called a draw rather than a Tottenham victory.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Aston Villa-Chelsea         1-2

Arsenal-Watford              1-0

Cherries-Man City           1-2

Norwich-Newcastle        2-1

Stoke-Swansea                 2-1

Sunderland-West Brom  1-1

West Ham-Palace            2-1

Liverpool-Tottenham      1-1

Leicester-Southampton   2-1

Man U-Everton                 2-1

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It still takes 50 points to guarantee relegation avoidance.  Obviously, this means that we can mathematically avoid relegation this week with a win.  We can also do so with a draw combined with a Sunderland loss.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.)  Since the most points we can earn on our own is 21 (24 with respect to Tottenham, Manchester City, and Leicester) this means that we technically control our own destiny with respect to everyone except the clubs that are ahead of us in the table and Liverpool.

Leicester City                      41

Tottenham                          37

Arsenal                                 34

Manchester City                 29

Manchester United            28

West Ham                            28

Liverpool                              25

Watford                               18

Stoke City                            21

Everton                               19

Chelsea                               19

Crystal Palace                    11

West Brom                         17

Bournemouth                   13

Swansea City                     11

Norwich City                        3

Newcastle                            3

Sunderland                          4

Aston Villa                          -9

MISCELLANEOUS STUFF

We have clinched a three way tie for 17^th place.  Our goal differential would likely let us prevail if that were to happen but we cannot be sure since it involves us losing all seven remaining games while Norwich and Newcastle win all of their remaining games after drawing this weekend--not a very likely scenario.

Leicester, on the other hand, has clinched 9^th place.

It still requires a 5^th place finish to secure a place in Europe because Manchester City can still drop below 6^th place and the FA Cup can be won by a club that does not otherwise qualify for Europe.  If the winner of the West Ham-Manchester United game wins the FA Cup and finishes in the top five, 6^th place would then qualify for Europe.  If that club and Manchester City both finish in the top six, 7^th place would qualify for Europe.