Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 33) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past round I picked eight games out of 10 correctly with one correct score for 110 points.  Lawrenson picked six out of 10 correctly with one correct score for 90 points.   Merson picked four out of 10 correctly with no correct scores for a total of 40 points.

My current total for the season is 144 out of 313 with for 2100 points.  Lawrenson has picked 155 out of 313 for 2310 points. Merson has picked 141 out of 309 for a total of 2080 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here. 

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here.  I had to make adjustments for unequal numbers of games played by using a table calculated by points per game rather than by current position on the table.   This caused the Liverpool-Stoke game to be predicted as a Liverpool victory rather than a draw.  Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

West Ham-Arsenal                          1-1

Aston Villa-Cherries                        1-2

Palace-Norwich                               2-1

Southampton-Newcastle              1-0

Swansea-Chelsea                            1-1

Watford-Everton                             1-1

Man City-West Brom                      1-0

Sunderland-Leicester                     1-2

Liverpool-Stoke                                2-1

Tottenham-Man U                          2-1

In addition, nothing that can happen this weekend will change the prediction for the mid-week game:

Palace-Everton                                 1-1

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

It now takes 47 points to guarantee relegation avoidance so we are safe but we can still finish as low as 17^th place.  Leicester, on the other hand, has clinched a 6^th place tie with Liverpool.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.)  The magic numbers do not reflect our safety from relegation because, mathematically, we can still finish behind either Norwich or Sunderland, just not both.

Leicester City                      41

Tottenham                          35

Arsenal                                34

Manchester City                29

Manchester United           28

West Ham                           26

Liverpool                             23

Watford                              15

Stoke City                           19

Everton                              16

Chelsea                              19

Crystal Palace                     9

West Brom                         15

Bournemouth                    10

Swansea City                      9

Norwich City                        3

Newcastle                             0

Sunderland                           2

Aston Villa                           -9