Predictions 2015-2016 (Round 36) With Magic Numbers, Relegation, and Other Stuff

This past week I picked three games out of seven correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.  Lawrenson picked three out of seven correctly with no correct scores for 30 points.   Merson picked three out of seven correctly with zero correct scores for a total of 30 points.

My current total for the season is 164 out of 346 with for 2420 points.  Lawrenson has picked 173 out of 346 for 2600 points. Merson has picked 155 out of 336 for a total of 2310 points.

Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions can be found here and here if I remember to add the information after it becomes available.

PREDICTIONS

My system’s picking rules can be found here. (The uneven number of games played does not affect anything this week.) Based upon those rules here are my predictions for the next round of games:

Everton-Cherries             2-1

Newcastle-Palace            1-1

Stoke-Sunderland           2-1

Watford-Aston Villa        1-0

West Brom-West Ham   1-2

Arsenal-Norwich              2-1

Swansea-Liverpool          1-2

Man U-Leicester              1-1

Southampton-Man City   1-1

Chelsea-Tottenham        1-2

RELEGATION AVOIDANCE

Yet again, it still takes 44 points to guarantee relegation avoidance. That number will drop unless both Sunderland and Norwich win.  If either club draws, the number drops to 42.  If either club loses, it drops to 41.    We can still finish as low as 10^th or as high as 5^th place. However, finishing ahead of Manchester United requires virtually everything to go right for us—we win all three of our remaining games and they lose three out of four, for example.  Finishing ahead of Liverpool or West Ham is only slightly easier.  In other words, European football is quite unlikely and  could be virtually impossible by the end of the weekend.  A win against Manchester City guarantees us no worse than 9^th place—8^th place if Chelsea loses.

Leicester, on the other hand, can finish no lower than second place and will guarantee themselves the title if they win, Tottenham lose, or they both draw.

MAGIC NUMBERS

These are Southampton’s current magic numbers as explained here. (Note that magic numbers don’t actually go negative because once they hit zero, you have clinched finishing ahead of the other club.  I am just making them go negative to keep track of just how far back some clubs are.) 

Leicester City                    32

Tottenham                        25

Arsenal                               20

Manchester City               20

Manchester United          18

West Ham                           15

Liverpool                             14

Watford                               0

Stoke City                            3

Everton                                0

Chelsea                                6

Crystal Palace                    -5

West Brom                         -1

Bournemouth                   -3

Swansea City                     -4

Norwich City                      -9

Newcastle                           -14

Sunderland                         -10

Aston Villa                           -22