Maybe not. But I
decided to tabulate the information anyway.
And this time I am doing it at a reasonable hour--at least in terms of California time. I decided to post this now, rather than after
Saturday’s games so that people will know what they want to cheer for.
I looked at the points achieved by each team after eleven
games in the Premier League since it went to 20 teams and compared it to the
teams’ final league position. I only
looked at teams with 19 or more points.
Here is what I got:
19 Points: 17 teams Range:
1-13 Average finish: 5.76
20 Points: 23 teams Range:
2-17 Average finish: 6.70
21 Points: 12 teams Range:
1-12 Average finish: 4.92
22 Points: 9 teams Range:
1-9 Average finish: 5.44
23 Points: 10 teams Range: 1-7 Average finish:
3.10
24 Points: 6 teams Range: 1-3 Average finish:
2.00
25 Points: 12 teams Range
2-10 Average finish: 3.83
26 Points: 8 teams Range: 1-3 Average finish:
1.75
27 Points: 4 teams Range:
1-5 Average finish: 2.00
28 Points: 2 teams Range:
1-2 Average finish: 1.50
29 Points: No teams
30 Points: No teams
31 Points: 2 teams Range:
1 Average finish: 1.00
The number one takeaway from this information is that if we
beat Leicester today we cannot win the league, but if we lose or draw, we still
have a chance. Less frivolously, these numbers suggest that if Chelsea beats Liverpool they are very unlikely to finish anywhere but first--not just because it will be difficult to catch them but because only very, very good teams earn 29 points in 11 games.
If we win Saturday, only 16 teams in the 20 team Premier
League era will have gotten off to better eleven game starts than us. Every team that had 25
points after eleven games finished in the top half. If you exclude Wigan in 2005-2006, every 25
point team finished at least sixth.
All the 22 and 23 point teams have finished
in the top half as well so we are looking pretty good no matter what happens.
Once again, we cannot reach the real cut off line which
appears to be 26 points in eleven games.
Only one team has failed to finish in what would now be a Champions
League slot after getting 26 or more points.
No team has ever won the league without earning at least 19
points in eleven games, but four teams have done that. This means that we do not want Arsenal or
West Ham to win.
That’s it for now. Enjoy the numbers.
Hi Redslo, TUI poster here. Enjoy a bit of statistical analysis but always reliant on others to do it for me! So thanks and keep it up.
ReplyDeleteHowever, being of a certain age I have never, and never do I intend to, have any knowledge or experience of Football Manager and its attraction to others other than a bit of fun.
Ultimately football, like all other sports, is played/managed/refereed by humans and thus is rife with errors. Indeed, virtually every goal scored can be attributed to an error made by the conceding side.
And long may that continue. That is what makes it entertaining, the unpredictability of the result of any given match.
Enjoy the stats, as I will, but keep hold of the essence of the sport as it is played out in a live situation.