21 Points: 13 teams Range: 3-13 Average finish: 6.62
22 Points: 18 teams Range:
1-13 Average finish: 6.11
23 Points: 13 teams Range: 2-8 Average finish:
4.85
24 Points: 13 teams Range: 1-9 Average finish: 3.15
25 Points: 9 teams Range
1-10 Average finish: 4.11
26 Points: 5 teams Range: 1-4 Average finish:
2.40
27 Points: 6 teams Range:
1-2 Average finish: 1.50
28 Points: 7 teams Range:
2-6 Average finish: 3.29
29 Points: 5 teams Range: 1-3 Average finish:
2.00
30 Points: 4 teams Range: 1-5 Average finish:
2.50
31 Points: 3 teams Range:
1-2 Average finish: 1.33
32 Points: No teams
33 Points: No teams
34 Points: 1 team Range: 1 Average finish:
1.00
Two teams eventually finished first with less than 21 points
in 12 games: Manchester United (19
points) in 1996-1997 and Arsenal (20 points) in 2001-2002. Maybe I should have left the cut off at 19
points, but I am not going back and doing it again.
Once again, we cannot reach the cut off line which appears
to all but guarantee a great season which is 29 points in 12 games. Only one team has failed to finish in what
would now be a Champions League slot after getting 29 or more points. Although,
clubs with 26 points have finished no worse than sixth place which is pretty good which
would mean we only need a draw against Aston Villa. However, since it looks like points are going
to be harder to come by over the next several weeks, we should grab the three
if we can.
This chart makes particularly clear the historic nature of
Chelsea’s performance so far this season.
Only one team has ever done better.
It really looks like the title race is over unless Chelsea has a massive
number of injuries. Aside from us, only
Manchester City can plausibly be viewed as a title contender on a historical
basis. It is not that Chelsea’s eight
point margin over City is insurmountable on its own. Lots of teams have passed teams that were
eight points ahead of them with 26 games left to play. However, gaining eight points is a lot easier
to do at the bottom or the middle of the table where the team ahead of you can
reasonably be expected to drop lots of points.
Chelsea may not drop eight more points this entire season the way they
are playing.
Even if Chelsea played the rest of the season at just a two
points per game rate, Manchester City would need to play the rest of this
season better than they did the entire last season to pass Chelsea. And City does not look anywhere near as good
this year as they did last year. And it
is hard to imagine Chelsea dropping 24 more points.
Of course, the near inevitability of a Chelsea victory is
well known which is why the bookies are all offering only 1/6 or 1/7 odds on
Chelsea. At this point, I will be
rooting for Chelsea to win all their games (except against us) because that is
what will help us the most.
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