Eleven Games—More Statistical Playing Around

Having recently discovered Statto.com’s handy dandy historical League tables. (Here.)  I could not resist playing around with them some more.

I wanted to examine how many points clubs that finish at the top tend to have after eleven games and compare that figure to their point total at the end of the season.  Once again, I started with the 1995-1996 season.  I only tabulated the top six places.  I also calculated the average points per game the teams earned over the remaining 27 games.

                                11 Games            Final                       Pts/G 12-38

First:                      24.32                     85.63                     2.27

Second:                24.26                     79.37                     2.04

Third:                    21.00                     73.89                     1.96

Fourth:                 19.74                     68.26                     1.80

Fifth:                     18.53                     63.47                     1.66

Sixth:                    17.89                     60.58                     1.58

Right now Southampton has more points that the average first place team did after elven games.  Of course, the average team with 25 points was not four points behind a team that had not yet lost.

I then looked at things from the opposite perspective—where did the teams that were in the top six after eleven games finish and how many points did they have at the end of the season.  I also calculated their points per game for the rest of the season.

                                11 Games            Final                       Pts/G 12-38        Final Position

First:                      26.26                     79.21                     1.96                        2.26

Second:                24.42                     77.84                     1.97                        2.53

Third:                    23.16                     68.68                     1.69                        4.21

Fourth:                 19.47                     64.58                     1.67                        5.58

Fifth:                     19.26                     59.68                     1.50                        7.42

Sixth:                    18.47                     55.79                     1.38                        8.63

There seems to be a genuine difference in quality between the clubs who are in first or second after eleven games and the clubs just below them.  If this holds true this year, that is a good sign for Southampton.  Of course, it is just a tendency, not an absolute law of nature so it could mean absolutely nothing.

Except it is pretty clear that bad teams are never in second place after eleven games and average teams are almost never in second place.  If I were a statistician I could do something to make this both clearer and more confusing.  Suffice it to say that Southampton is probably a good team.  We could be a very good team and we could be an average team, but historically the former is more likely than the latter.

It occurred to me, as I was part way though this, that it would be interesting to carry the chart all the way down to last place and see what it says about the relegation battle.  However, it would also be way too much work since I am tabulating this by hand.  And right now, I am not that interested in relegation issues.