Ten Games, Twenty-Two Points: What does it mean?

There have been various posts or news reports suggesting that having 22 points in ten games means something significant such as that we have an 85% chance of making the Champions League.  (This claim would be wrong because it ignores the possibility of the fourth place team being deprived of a Champions League slot like what happened to Tottenham when Chelsea won while finishing 6^th in the league.)   I decided to investigate this instead of going to bed at a sensible hour.

I looked at the points achieved by each team after ten games in the Premier League since it went to 20 teams and compared it to the teams’ final league position.  I only looked at teams with 17 or more points.  Here is what I got:

17 Points:  24 teams        Range:  2-15       Average finish:  7.58

18 Points:  13 teams        Range:  1-9          Average finish:  4.84

19 Points:  16 teams        Range:  1-13       Average finish:  5.63

20 Points:  14 teams        Range:  1-17       Average finish:  5.57

21 Points:  11 teams        Range:  1-12       Average finish:  4.54

22 Points:  12 teams        Range:  1-10       Average finish:  4.17

23 Points:  9 teams          Range: 1-4           Average finish:  2.11

24 Points:  5 teams          Range: 1-5           Average finish:  2.00

25 Points:  5 teams          Range  1-4           Average finish:  2.20

26 Points:  2 teams          Range: 2-3           Average finish:  2.50

27 Points:  1 team            Range:  2              Average finish:  2.00

28 Points:  2 teams          Range:  1              Average finish:  1.00

So what does this all mean for Southampton this year?  Probably not much.

In the 19 full seasons with a 20 team Premier League only 24 teams have gotten off to better ten game starts than us. Every team that had 22 points after ten games finished in the top half.

The real dividing line appears to be 23 points after ten games.  Only one team has failed to finish in what would now be a Champions League slot after getting 23 or more points in ten games.  Too bad we didn’t pick up a point against Liverpool or Tottenham—we would have it made.  Of course, that is not how it works.

No team has ever been relegated after earning 17 points in their first ten games.  The team that did the worst was Hull City in 2008-2009 dropping to 17^th place after earning 20 points in ten games.  They only earned 15 more points in their remaining 28 games.

No team has ever won the league without earning at least 18 points in ten games and only one team, Manchester United in 2002-2003, has done that.

Newcastle failed to win the league in 1995-1996 despite starting with 27 points in ten games.  The best performances by teams with less than 17 points after ten games were Liverpool in 1997-1998 who finished third despite earning only 15 points in their first ten games , Newcastle United who finished third in 2002-2003 despite earning only 16 points in their first ten games, Liverpool who finished third in 2006-2007 despite earning only 14 points in ten games, and Arsenal in 2011-2012 who finished third after earning just 16 points in their first ten games.

I am now sleepy and it is 3:21 am my time so good night.