I Make Predictions (Round 31)

Last round my system picked four 1-0 games.  I got the winner of each game right, but only one score right.  From this I deduce that when poor offensive teams play good defensive teams, the good defensive team is very likely to win, but the score is less predictable.  There are four 1-0 predictions this week to test this theory.

Last round Mark Lawrenson got seven games right for eleven points.  His celebrity guest got five games right for five points.  Merson got five games right for five points.  I got seven games right for eleven points. 

Since I started making these predictions I have predicted 101 out of 189 games correctly for 150 points.  Lawrenson predicted 99 games correctly for 129 points. Merson predicted 91 games out of 185 correctly for 125 points. 

I will link to Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions when they are published.  They will be found here and here.

Here are my predictions using the same rules outlined here.   Once again, my modifications for clubs that have played a different number of games do not matter because only the first and last place clubs are affected.

Arsenal-Liverpool            2-1

Everton-Southampton    0-1

Leicester-West Ham       1-2

Man U-Aston Villa           1-0

Swansea-Hull                     1-0

West Brom-QPR               2-1

Chelsea-Stoke                   1-0

Burnley-Spurs                   1-2

Sunderland-Newcastle    1-1

Palace-Man City               1-2

MAGIC NUMBERS

Here are our magic numbers for the entire League as explained here:

I have left the clubs in the same order from when I first posted this list because I find it more interesting that way.

Strictly speaking magic numbers do not go negative—when the number reaches zero you have clinched finishing ahead of that team—that is why the number is magic.  Nevertheless, I am going to continue calculating negative magic numbers because that information is useful to me in comparing the various clubs.  Anyone who is bothered by this can just treat all negative numbers as zero.

Chelsea                42

Man City              33

Man U                  31

Arsenal                 32

Tottenham         25

Liverpool             26

West Ham           14

Swansea              16

Stoke                    14

Newcastle           7

Everton                 6

Palace                   8

Sunderland          -2

West Brom            5

Aston Villa             0

Burnley                 -3

Hull                        0

QPR                       -6

Leicester              -6

The points total mathematically needed to avoid relegation dropped to 50.  It will drop to 47 if Burnley lose.  It will drop to 48 if Sunderland, Aston Villa, or Hull lose, but Burnley win.

We have clinched 14^th place.  If we beat Everton and West Brom does not win we clinch 12^th place.  Tenth place is within reach the next week.  We could, but probably won’t, clinch 7^th place in three rounds. Clinching 6^th place is a long way off.