Greg Dyke and His Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Ideas (Part Two)

Note: Edited because I overlooked the fact that Ben Amos was on loan at Bolton.

In order to fully analyze the effect of the new home grown rules, I needed to figure out where Premier League clubs currently stood with respect to home grown players and how that would change under the new rules.  This became quite a project.  As a result, I have decided to publish the results of my research separately from my analysis.  I hope to complete the analysis in the next couple of days.

If the new rules were in effect right now, things would be dramatically different.  I have analyzed the rosters of the various Premier League teams to see just how many home grown players they currently have and how many they would each have under the new rules.  (I used the final Football Manager 2015 database as my primary, but not only, source of information because it was more accessible.  I also used other sources including league and club official web sites and Wikipedia.)

I am not certifying that my data is one hundred percent correct.  I may have missed a player here and there and I have certainly not spent the time to triple check my work.  However, I do not believe the possibility of small errors will in affect my analysis.

I have ignored players out on loan but have included players in on loan.  This is not totally realistic because some players out on loan would have been kept if the new rules were in effect.  For example, Tottenham certainly would not have allowed Aaron Lennon to go out on loan if they needed more home grown players.  The clubs are listed by their current order in the table.

Chelsea has only three home grown players:  Cesc Fabregas, Gary Cahill, and John Terry.  Only John Terry is club trained.  Under the new rules Fabregas is no longer home grown.  Since Chelsea is already operating five short of the permitted number of home grown players maybe they would be willing to do that under the new rules , but If they wanted to completely fill their roster they would need ten more home grown players—one of whom must be club trained.

Manchester City has six home grown players: Joe Hart, James Milner, Frank Lampard, Gail Clichy, Richard Wright, and Dedryck Boyata.  Only Boyata is club trained, but under the new rules neither he nor Clichy would be home grown.  To completely fill their roster Manchester City would need eight more home grown players.  They would need two of them to be club trained to completely fill their roster.

Arsenal has eight home grown players: Francis Coquelin, Kieren Gibbs, Emiliano Martinez, Aaron Ramsey, Wojciech Szclzesny, Theo Walcott, Danny Wellbeck, and Jack Wishire.  Coquelin, Gibbs, Ramsey, Szclzesny, Walcott, and Wilshire are currently considered club trained for European purposes.  Under the new rules only Gibbs, Wilshire, and Szclzesny are club trained and Martinez and Coquelin are no longer home grown.  Arsenal would need six more home grown players.

Manchester United has seven home grown players: Michael Carrick, Jonny Evans, Phil Jones, Rafael, Wayne Rooney, Tom Thorpe, and Ashley Young.  Evans, Rafael, Rooney, and Thorpe are club trained.  Under the new rules Rooney would not be club trained and Rafael would not be home grown.  Manchester United would need six more home grown players.

Liverpool has ten home grown players:  Joe Allen, Fabio Borini, Jon Flanagan, Steven Gerrard, Jordon Henderson, Glen Johnson, Brad Jones, Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert, and Daniel Sturridge.  Flanagan and Gerrard are club trained.  The new rules would cause Borini and Jones not to be home grown.  Liverpool would need four more home grown players.

I will stop here to note that these five clubs are the ones who will always be able to buy players away from Southampton and the other English clubs using their financial advantages.  Between them they would need 33 new home grown players to fill out their rosters, including three club trained players.  Where are those players going to come from?  Obviously, they are going to come from other English clubs.  Which English clubs?  The good ones like Southampton and Swansea are the more likely candidates.

Southampton has eight home grown players: Ryan Bertrand, Nathaniel Clyne, Kelvin Davis, Steve Davis, Fraser Forster, Shane Long, Jay Rodriguez, and Morgan Schneiderlin.  Only Schneiderlin is currently club trained.  Under the new rules neither Long nor Schneiderlin would be home grown.  Southampton would need six more home grown players including two club trained players to fill its roster.

Tottenham has four home grown players:  Ryan Mason, Danny Rose, Andros Townsend, and Kyle Walker.  Danny Rose is the only club trained player but he would not be club trained under the new rules.   Tottenham does have a bunch of younger players who are homegrown.  I did not sort out which ones would end up as club trained under the new rules.  I should mention that Aaron Lennon, who is out on loan, is currently club trained but under the new rules would only be association trained.  Tottenham would need eight more home grown players to fill their roster.  Two would need to be club trained.

Swansea is the ONLY club that is currently in full compliance with the proposed rules.  They have 15 home grown players: Daniel Alfei, Kyle Bartley, Leon Britton, Jack Cork, David Cornell, Nathan Dyer, Lee Lucas, Kyle Naughton, Curtis Obeng, Ahsley Richards, Wayne Routledge, Jonjo Shelvey, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Neil Taylor, and Ashley Williams.  Alfei, Cornell, Lucas, and Richards are club trained.  None of this would change under the new rules.

West Ham currently has 13 home grown players: Andy Carroll, Carlton Cole, James Collins, Aaron Cresswell, Stewart Downing, Matt Jarvis, Carl Jenkinson, Sebastian Lletget, Mark Noble, Kevin Nolan, Joey O’Brien, Alex Song, and James Tomkins.  Noble, Tomkins, and Lletget are club trained.  Under the new rules neither Song nor Lletget would be home grown.  West Ham would need one more home grown player.

Stoke has 11 home grown players: Phil Bardsley, Asmir Begovic, Peter Crouch, Stephen Ireland, Victor Moses, Ryan Shawcross, Steve Sidwell, Jonathan Walters, Glenn Whelan, Andy Wilkerson, and Marc Wilson.  Only Wilkerson is club trained.  Stoke would need one more home grown player who would have to be club trained to fill their roster..

Crystal Palace has 20 home grown players some of whom are not registered on the Premier League roster.  They have 13 home grown players on the roster: Shola Ameobi, Frazier Campell, Scott Dann, Dwight Gale, Wayne Hennessey, Martin Kelly, Joe Ledley, Adrian Mariappa, Jordan Mutch, Jason Puncheon, Jerome Thomas, Joel Ward, and Wilfried Zaha.  Only Zaha is club trained and nothing would change under the new rules.  This means that Palace has enough home grown players but would need a club trained player to fill the roster.

Newcastle has eight home grown players: Sammy Ameobi, Jack Colback, Paul Dummett, Rob Elliot, Tim Krul, Ryan Taylor, Steven Taylor, and Mike Williamson.  Krul, S. Taylor, Ameobi, and Dummett are club trained under current rules.  The new rules would eliminate Krul as home grown.  I cannot ascertain Sammy Ameobi’s status with certainty under the new rules.  He was born in Newcastle and lived in England but, did not join the Newcastle Academy until he was 16 which means he would not qualify as club trained.  I assume he would still qualify as home grown.  According to the PL website, Rob Elliot is not registered as home grown.  FM says he is home grown.  My research says FM is right on this one and I am assuming he is home grown. This means Newcastle would need four more home grown players.

Everton has eight home grown players: Leighton Baines, Gareth Barry, Darron Gibson, Tony Hibbert, Phil Jagielka, Aaron Lennon, James McCarthy, and Leon Osman.  Osman and Hibbert are club trained.   According to the PL website, James McCarthy is home grown.  FM says he is not.  My research says FM is wrong on this one.  However, under the new rules he would not be home grown.  Thus, Everton needs five more home grown players.

West Brom has eleven home grown players: Victor Anichebe, Chris Baird, Chris Blunt, Craig Dawson, Darren Fletcher, Ben Foster, Craig Gardner, Joleon Lescott, Callum McManaman, James Morrison, and Boaz Myhill.  None are club trained.  This means that they would need one more home grown player who should be club trained because they will need two club trained players to fill their roster.

Hull has 13 home grown players:  Sone Aluko, Robbie Brady, Alex Bruce,  James Chester, Curtis Davies, Michael Dawson, Joe Dudgeon, Steve Harper, Tom Huddlestone, Jake Livermore, Paul McShane, Steven Quinn, and Liam Rosenior.  None are club trained. The PL website lists Quinn as home grown.  FM does not.  I think FM is wrong.  However, he would not be home grown under the new rules.  Neither would McShane.  This means that Hull would need another home grown player and two club trained players to fill their roster under the new rules.

Aston Villa has 15 home grown players:  Gabby Agbonlahor, Nathan Baker, Ciaran Clark, Tom Cleverly, Joe Cole, Fabian Delph, Shay Given, Matt Lowton, Charles N’Zogbia, Kieran Richardson, Philippe Senderos, Benjamin Siegrist, Scott Sinclair, Andi Weimann, and Ashley Westwood.  Agbonlahor, Clark, Baker, Weimann, and Siegrist are club trained.  Under the new rules Given, Senderos, N’Zogbia, Weimann, and Siegrist would not be home grown.  This means that Aston Villa needs two more home grown players to fill its roster.

Sunderland has 13 home grown players:  Liam Bridcutt, Wes Brown, Will Buckley,  Lee Cattermole, James Defoe,  Danny Graham, Adam Johnson, Billy Jones, Sebastian Larsson, Vito Manore, John O’Shea, Jack Rodwell, and Patrick van Aanholt.  None are club trained.  Under the new rules Manore, van Aanholt, O’Shea, and Larsson are no longer home grown.  Sunderland would need three more home grown players including two club trained players to fill their roster.

Burnley has 19 home grown players: Ashley Barnes, George Boyd, Alex Cisak, Michael Duff, Matt Gilks, Tom Heaton,Danny Ings, David Jones, Lukas Jutkiewicz, Michael Kightly, Dean Marney, Ben Mee, Luke O’Neill, Steven Reid, Jason Shackell, Marvin Sordell, Matty Taylor, Kieran Trippie, and Sam Vokes.  Only Ings is club trained.  Under the new rules Ings is not club trained and Jutkiewicz is no longer home grown.  Burnley would need two club trained players to fill their roster.

QPR has 18 home grown players:  Charlie Austin, Joey Barton, Steven Caulker, Michael Doughty, Richard Dunne, Rio Ferdinand, Robert Green, Karl Henry, Clint Hill, Junior Hoilett, Alex McCarthy, Brian Murphy, Nedum Onuoha, Matt Phillips, Adel Taarabt, Armond Traore, Shaun Wright-Philips, and Bobby Zamora.  Only Michael Doughty is club trained.  Under the new rules Taarabt and Traore are not home grown.  QPR would need one club trained player to fill their roster.

Leicester has 17 home grown players:  Marc Albrighton, Ritchie de Laet, Danny Drinkwater, Ben Hamer, Dean Hammon, Robert Huth, Matty James, Andy King, Paul Konchesky, Jeffrey Schlupp, Kasper Schmeichel, Danny Simpson, Adam Smith, Wes Morgan, Matthew Upson, and Jamie Vardy.  King, Smith, and Schlupp are club trained.  Under the new rules only Schlupp would be club trained.  Huth, Schmeichel, and De Laet are not home grown.  Leicester would need one club trained player to fill their roster.

To be clear: if I say a club needs another home grown player and two club trained players, it means that they have 11 home grown players, but only ten of them count against requirement of 12 because they are short two club trained players.  If they make no roster changes, they will only be able to register 23 players.

In total, this means that Premier League clubs will need a total of 66 more home grown players to fill their rosters.  If the clubs that have extra home grown players graciously transfer them to the clubs with shortages, the league as a whole needs 50 more home grown players.  In addition, clubs would need another 19 club trained players to completely fill their rosters.

In Part three, I will analyze the consequences of the new rules in light of this information and explain why I believe they will be very bad for Southampton and most other Premier League clubs.  I will also critique some of the nonsense that is being spouted to justify these changes.