Greg Dyke and His Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Ideas (Part Three)

In part one of this series I discussed the negative effects the recently enacted changes in the work permit rules will have on Southampton and the Premier League in general.  See here.

In my second post, I summarized the home grown player status of each of the 20 Premier Leagues both under current rules and under the newly proposed rules.  See here.

In this post, I address the problems with these proposed rules and their likely negative effects on English club football. (For ease of discussion I will usually refer to non-home grown players under the proposed rules as foreign players.  I will refer to home grown players under those rules as English players.  Of course it is possible for a non-English play to become a home grown player and by the same token, it is possible for an English player not to qualify as home grown in England.  Under the new rules both circumstances would be relatively rare.)

These rules will be disastrous both for the competitive balance of the Premier League itself and for the future performance of English Teams in European competition.  The richer clubs will become stronger relative to the other clubs in the Premier League, while becoming weaker relative to the elite clubs in the rest of Europe. 

It is important to understand that England’s status in European competition has already been put in jeopardy by the poor performance of English clubs in Europe over the last two years.  I expect to post a blog discussing this issue fairly soon.  When and if I do, a link to that post will be found here.  To summarize: because England is one of the top three rated nations, four English teams go to the Champion’s League.  Given the recent performances of English teams in European competition, there is a real risk that by the end of the 2015-2016 season, England will drop into fourth place.  If that happens in 2017-2018 only three English clubs would qualify for the Champion’s League.  Since, the FA claims to want more English players playing club football at the highest level, taking an English club out of the Champions league seems suboptimal.

As I explained in part two of this series, the proposed rules would, when compared to the current rosters, require the Premier League, as a whole, to find approximately 50 more home grown players.  These are not homegrown players who will be shifted around the Premier League from one club to another.  These are the number of additional English players that need to be added to the Premier League to fill the clubs’ rosters.  Admittedly, 19 of these roster openings are for club trained players who are not so easy to obtain so really only approximately 30 players are needed.  There are a number of home grown players who would count as club trained for a different club—such as Nathan Dyer, who would be club trained for Southampton.  If the new rules are implemented, it may be that some clubs will re-sign former players who would qualify as club trained.

Kicking 50 foreigners out of the Premier League and replacing them with 50 English players will give more playing time to English players.  It might even improve the English National Team, slightly.  However, it will definitely reduce the quality of play in the Premier League.  No one could seriously contend that there are 50 English players out there who are good enough to play in the Premier League but are stuck in the Championship because their path has been blocked by inferior foreign players.

No doubt the proponents of these rule changes would contend that the large number of foreign players block the progress of young English players into the squads of Premier League teams.  This might be true, but these rules will not solve this problem and, even if they mitigate it slightly, they will do so at great cost to competitiveness in both Europe and within the Premier League itself. 

Consider, for example, Chelsea.  Right now Chelsea is operating with a very small squad.  Of the 25 players they are allowed to list on their main squad, they only have 18 players listed.  In addition, they have only given significant playing time to one underage player.  Since they only have three home grown players, this means that they have room under current rules for five more home grown players and two more foreign players. Thus, it does not appear that, right now, foreign players are taking up roster spots that could be filled with English players.  Quite simply Chelsea, as of now, does not seem to want any more English players.

If the new rules were in effect this season, Chelsea would be permitted 13 foreign players.  Under the new rules, 16 of their current players qualify as foreign.  In other words, Chelsea would have to dump three foreign players.  They could replace those players with up to ten home grown players one of whom must be club trained.  How would they go about filling their roster?

They would probably get rid of Peter Cech and replace him with a home grown back up goal keeper.  It is less clear which two of the remaining foreign players they would let go.  However, since Chelsea has no truly bad players, whatever players are forced to leave would weaken the team.  Chelsea would replace them by using its financial strength to buy up to ten home grown players from other Premier League teams.

Consider the consequences of these potential transactions.  If we assume that Chelsea could not persuade Manchester United, Manchester City, or Arsenal to give up their home grown players, it means that the players would be taken from the teams that are already significantly weaker than Chelsea.  Looking at the clubs below the top four, I do not see a lot of home grown players who jump out as good enough to play for Chelsea.  Therefore, Chelsea will need to sign players who, by their current standards, are not good enough to play for them—thereby weakening their squad—while signing the better players from other clubs—thereby weakening those squads as well.  Imagine, if Chelsea were to simply sign a single English player from each of ten teams currently in fifth to 14th place.  They might, for example, sign Henderson, Clyne, Mason, Cork, Downing, Begovic, Zaha, Colback, Baines, and McManaman.

I am not claiming that any one of these specific transfers would be especially likely.  However, similar transfers would be virtually an inevitable consequence of the new rules.  Even though these players are, by current standards, mostly not good enough to play for Chelsea, they would be better than nothing.  Likely, given the way Chelsea is currently operating, they would not sign the maximum ten players and would continue to operate with a smaller roster.  Nevertheless, one thing is clear, even if these players are not currently good enough for to play for Chelsea, they are certainly good enough to play for their current clubs each of which would be noticeably weakened by their departure.

Moreover, Chelsea is not alone in its need for English players.  Under the proposed rules, Manchester City would need to replace six foreign players. Arsenal would have to dump six foreign players.  Manchester United would not have to dump any foreign players but would still have room for six more home grown players;  Liverpool is in an interesting situation under the new rules.  Very likely, they would lose players to the clubs above them but would be first in line to take players from the clubs below them.  As the roster currently stands, they would not have to dump any foreign players but would have room for four more home grown players.  However, any English players they lost would need to be replaced. Totterham would have to dump four foreign players.  Taken as a whole, the six richest clubs would need to replace 19 foreign players with at least that many top quality English players from the rest of the League.  In other words, they would need more additional top quality English players than actually exist.

A similar effect would operate on the mid-level teams like Southampton, Swansea, and West Ham, who would need to replace their excess foreign players and their English players taken by the bigger teams with English players from the smaller teams.  The effects would cascade all the way down the English Football Pyramid albeit with diminishing effects.  Perhaps the Conference North and Conference South teams would not be significantly affected.

Southampton, for example, currently has 21 players on its roster.  Under the new rules, only six of them would be home grown which means we would have to get rid of two foreign players and replace them with up to six English players of whom two would have to be club trained.  While no doubt we can all look at our current roster and identify two foreign players that we could lose without much of a problem, it is important to remember that these loses would be in addition to losses of the home grown players snapped up by the richer clubs.  Is it really even plausible to suggest that, given the increased demand for good English players these rules would bring about, that we could replace these players without significantly reducing the quality of the squad?  I doubt it. Certainly, we would be weakened more than Chelsea or Manchester United.

The problem would be even worse for the clubs at the bottom of the Premier League or in the Championship who would find any of their players who could plausibly play at the Premier level snapped up by richer clubs.

The result of the all this roster movement would be that the best teams in the Premier League would be somewhat weaker while the teams immediately below them would be moderately weaker and the teams at the bottom of the League would be significantly weaker.  The teams in the Championship would be weaker still—especially since the new work permit rules mean that very few, if any, non-European foreigners will be playing in the Championship.

The effects on English Clubs participating in Europe would also be significant.  There has been a lot of talk recently about the disappointing performances of English teams in European Competitions.  If the new home grown rules are not mirrored throughout the top European Leagues, these disappointing performances will only get worse.  Not only will the good foreign players for whom there is no longer room in the Premier League be signed by other European Clubs but these Clubs would not be weakened either by the more restrictive work permit rules already in effect in England or by England’s restrictive home grown rules. Unlike English Clubs, the Champions League contenders from other nations will not be required to replace foreign players with inferior home grown players.  Clubs in Spain, Germany, and Italy will not be forced to replace South Americans and Africans with inferior Spaniards, Germans, and Italians, respectively.

There is one way English Clubs playing in Europe could mitigate the adverse effect of these rules but I do not believe that method would be very practical.  English Clubs could sign four foreign players for their European roster who would be left off their domestic roster.  However, I doubt that top quality players would want to sign knowing that they would only be eligible to play in European Competition games?  For some, it might amount to a six game season.

In my fourth and final post I will discuss why I believe these rules will not help the English National Team and analyze some of the stupid reasons given in support of these rules.