Thursday, April 30, 2015

Greg Dyke and His Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Ideas (Part Four)

In this, the long overdue fourth part of my discussion of the proposed home grown rule changes, I will look at the justifications for the rule changes.  Obviously, Greg Dyke’s proposed rules are intended to benefit the English National Football Team.  He believes that benefiting the English National Football Team is a worthy goal.  Most likely, most English football fans would agree, but it is important to recognize that the Premier League as a whole and Southampton FC, no doubt to a lesser extent, has fans around the world who do not care about the English team or, if they do care, they want it to lose.

The Premier League, all things being equal, probably does want the English National Team to do well.  However, that cannot and should not be the major focus of the league in the same way that the NBA would probably like the United States Basketball team to win World Championships and Olympic Gold Medals but is not specifically structured to facilitate that.   However, even if we assume that improving the English National Football Teams is a worthy goal that would justify changing the rules to the competitive detriment of the Premier League, there is little reason to believe that the proposed rule changes will help very much.
Consider this article.    Dyke is quoted saying “suddenly an English kid who was out on loan at four different places, who was touch and go to get a game in the first team, is suddenly the top scorer in English Football.”  He continues, “it’s great news.  How many more Harry Kanes are out there who just can’t get a game?”  While obviously, we cannot be sure, the answer is probably not very many.
Dyke’s reasoning is flawed.  Look at the pretty chart at top of the article.  This chart summarizes, without the specific names, the same information I provided in part two of this series.   (Found here.)  In designating players as home grown, the chart uses the current rules, not the proposed new rules.  Nevertheless, there are a lot of grey, unfilled roster slots.  Each of these slots could be filled by an English player right now.  Foreign players, whether highly qualified or mediocre, are not preventing Premier League clubs from signing English players to fill these slots.  Instead, it is the Premier League clubs who, after evaluating the available English talent, have determined that the English players they could afford are worse than nothing.  Thus, the primary barrier to more good English Players playing in the Premier League is the fact that the people responsible for making roster decisions do not think there are more good English players.
While it is certainly possible that the clubs are doing a poor job of identifying and evaluating English talent, they have a strong financial incentive to scout, find, and play good English players.  Certainly, for example, Southampton last year demonstrated the benefits, both on the field and in the financial books, that can accrue to a team who locates and plays good English talent. 
Dyke’s perspective on Harry Kane and the way Tottenham chose to develop him also appears to be misguided.  Harry Kane was born on 28 July 1993.  At the beginning of the 2009-2010 season, he was 16 years old.  In that season, he played 22 times for the under-18s and scored 18 goals.  This was, of course, an outstanding performance.  Possibly, Kane at that point would have been good enough to play for a Premier League club.  Possibly not.  However, in 2009-2010, Tottenham finished in fourth place and qualified for the Championship League.  Given their need to compete in the 2010-2011 Champions League and maintain their Premier League status, Tottenham could not reasonably be expected to experiment with an untried 17-year-old striker.  Certainly, they were not going to give him enough playing time for him to develop his skills.
Instead, over the next several years Tottenham loaned Kane out to four different clubs.  Based on the stats and other information, it appears that he played well but not so well that he seemed like a certain English star of the future.  Why should Tottenham be faulted for sending a good young player out on loan where he could play first team football at an appropriate level rather than retaining him at the home club where he would primarily play with the reserves?  In fact, contrary to Dyke’s implied suggestion that foreign players were blocking Kane’s development, it seems that Tottenham actually followed a sensible plan of development for Kane that should be viewed, at least as of now, as an unqualified success.  Kane’s performance this year is not an illustration of what is wrong with the current system, but a success story.  At 21 years of age he was given a chance to play his way onto both his club’s starting squad and the English National team.
In researching this article, I read “The Way Forward: Solutions to England’s Football Failings” by Matthew Whitehouse.  It seems likely that Whitehouse would endorse Dyke’s proposed changes.  It is also clear that the English National Team is Whitehouse’s highest priority.  Nevertheless, an analysis of the book reveals that these changes in the home grown rules should be one of the FA’s lowest priorities.  According to Whitehouse, England does not have enough qualified youth coaches and many of them are poorly trained.  Even worse, they do not teach English youngsters how to play football in the correct fashion. 
Whitehouse sometimes takes what appear to be contradictory positions.  For example, he argues both that English boys play too much football at a young age and do not play enough football at a young age.  He also believes that English coaches put too much pressure on boys not to make mistakes so that they are scared to take the chances that are necessary to learn more creative and technical skills.  He contends that some boys are weeded out of the system at too young of an age simply because they are mistakenly believed to be too small or not good enough.  In another part of the book, Whitehouse expressed a belief that it is important to get the best players playing together as soon as possible.  He does not explain how this can be done without weeding out some players at too young an age. 
Setting aside the internal contradictions, the primary focus of Whitehouse’s argument is that more needs to be done to give young English players better coaching and more opportunities to play at the highest possible level so they are constantly challenged to improve.  Incidentally, Whitehouse, on several occasions, points to Southampton’s academy as one of the few places in England where things are done correctly.
While I do not purport to be an expert on the best way to train youngsters to become professional footballers, I do know that relatively few youngsters will become professional footballers and even fewer of those will become elite footballers that will strengthen the English team.  It may well be that England and the Premier League are not doing enough to support grassroots football, but the primary purpose of grassroots football should be to provide healthy exercise for young people and to teach them to incorporate regular exercise into their lives.  Identifying and training more elite footballers should be nothing more than a happy by-product.
There are hundreds of areas where young people can learn useful skills and have a chance to excel.  Football is by no means the most important one of them.  Certainly, for example, England could use a few more elite cricket players or golfers or, for that matter, school teacher, doctors, nurses, writers, and, perhaps, consulting detectives.  To the extent Whitehouse or, for that matter, Dyke wants to push more kids into playing football at the expense of other things they can or should be doing including studying, reading, learning computer skills, cooking their own meals, or even playing video games,  they do not have their priorities straight.  The United Kingdom as a nation should place its emphasis on educating its young people, not on encouraging them to put in the 10,000 hours of practice that Whitehouse believes is necessary to become an elite football player.  In fact, no one could fault the nation’s priorities if it decides to buy its footballers from abroad and send more of its young adults to college. 
In response to the most recent television deal, the Premier League has announced that it will spend one billion pounds of its television revenue on grassroots football and other worthwhile causes.  (See here. )  Given that the Premier League has a vested interest in the development in young English footballers this sounds like a worthwhile use of its television money.  However, the Premier League could just as reasonably decide, instead, to spend the same amount of money training nurses.
In any case, it is difficult to see the path to the English National Team that Dyke believes would arise out of his proposed rules.  Possibly he thinks that English Clubs are filled with young English players who are good enough to play in the Premier League but are not being given the opportunity.  This seems unlikely.  A significant number of young English players have been playing in the Premier League in the past several years.  Very likely at the top teams, the path to the first team for such players is blocked but at teams like Southampton, Liverpool, Swansea and Everton, a path to the first team exists.  The new rules could very well reduce the opportunities for good young players because they would virtually compel the richest clubs to gather up as many potentially elite players as they could by age 15 in order to fill their club trained roster slots.
An example of how the new rules could go wrong is illustrated by what happened to Luke Shaw this year.  Last year, Luke Shaw was Southampton’s undisputed number one left back.  So long as he was fit, he got to play.  As a result, he was given every opportunity to develop his skills by playing at the highest level.  He was bought for a huge amount of money by Manchester United who paid him a lot of money but sat him on the bench for most of the year.  Admittedly, he missed many games due to injuries but he did not play in every game where he was healthy.  (Moreover, the Southampton medical staff might have done a better job of keeping him healthy.)
If, indeed, Luke Shaw is the English Left back for the next decade, how has the English National Team benefited by having him at Manchester United?  Is there some magical process by which a player learns to be a better player by sitting around and earning a fortune while watching other even more expensive players play football?  Or would Shaw have learned more if he had spent an additional year at Southampton?
Under the new rules the rich English clubs will have every incentive to buy up as many of the good young English players as they can in order to fill the roster spots.  Most of these players will then sit on the bench at big clubs.  The same problem will exist for older English players.  Under the new rules, clubs will need up to ten association trained players.  Manchester United and other rich clubs will fill their rosters with the best English players they can find even if those players are not good enough to play regularly.  As a result, instead playing repeatedly for mid table or top half league clubs, many of the best English players will find their playing time reduced by these new rules.  We can all name English players who have sat on the bench at big clubs when they could have been playing at smaller clubs. (Ryan Bertrand)  The new rules will encourage more of that.
These consequences of the new rules are not well understood.  Consider this article Allegedly, Southampton FC “are superbly placed to cope with the strict work permit rules being brought in by the FA—because of the thriving nature of their academy.”  This simply makes no sense. 
Right now, Southampton has, by my count, nine players who require work permits to play in England:  Ramirez, Gazzaniga, Yoshida, Tadic, Wanyama, Djuricic, Mane, Cropper, and Mayuka.  It is not clear how many of these players would have been able to obtain their work permits under the newly implemented work permit rules.  A few might qualify automatically because of the exception for players for whom the transfer fee is ten million pounds.  Setting aside the special exception for expensive players, only Dusan Tadic appears likely to have been eligible for a work permit at the time of his original transfer to Southampton.  The other players did not have enough playing time for their National team or their National team was not high enough rated to qualify under the new rules. 
It is not clear how our academy would help us solve the problems created by the new rules.  We will be unable to sign as many foreign players and our best English players will be snapped up by the richer clubs.  A more sensible article would have reported that Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and, maybe, Tottenham were superbly placed to deal with the new rules because virtually all of their transfers are for big enough fees that the new work permit rules would not block their transfers and they have the money to buy up young English players.  In other words the new rules are designed to favor the richer clubs at the expense of the rest of the League.  (Make no mistake, Southampton is better positioned than many other clubs to pay high enough transfer fees to avoid work permit rule limitations.  We are also better positioned to develop at least some of our own players and to steal young English players away from other clubs.)  It seems likely that Southampton management agrees with me since Southampton was the only Premier League club to openly question Dyke about his proposed rules.  (See here and here.)  
Dyke has stated that the rules would not be forced upon the Premier League but would, instead, be implemented in consultation with the Premier League, but Michel Platini appears to back his plan, so perhaps UEFA will adopt the rules for everyone. (See here.)  This would actually be a better solution for the Premier League because, if these rules applied to all nations, English clubs would not be uniquely disadvantaged in European competition.
On the other hand, if EUFA adopts these rules it will greatly disadvantage the smaller nations in international competition.  Under the new rules, it will be much more difficult for the best players from smaller countries to get onto clubs in the better leagues because there will be fewer rosters spots for non-home grown players.  At the same time, the clubs in those small country leagues will be more reluctant to sell their home grown players because they will have more home grown roster spots to fill.  The demand for their players will be reduced as well.  Thus, the new rules will not only unfairly favor the richer clubs in the Premier League (and other Leagues as well) but they will favor the nations who have the better domestic leagues at the expense of the smaller nations.  If the smaller nations have any sense, they will vote down the new rules when UEFA tries to enact them.
In support of the proposed rules, it has been claimed that the rosters of eleven Premier League clubs currently comply with the new rules.  However, most of those clubs are in the bottom half of the league and qualify primarily because they are unable to afford very many foreign players and, instead, include English players on their rosters who are not good enough for the better Premier League clubs.  It is hardly an endorsement of the rules that weaker clubs can comply with them without difficulty.  No doubt every club in the Conference also is in current compliance with these rules.
The English national team will be improved if more potentially elite English players in their late teens and early twenties could get playing time in the Premier League.  These rules will not cause that to happen.  Under current rules, under 21 players can already play without filling roster slots.  Yet, they are not getting very much playing time, especially from the biggest clubs.  These rules will not force the bigger clubs to play young English players.  Unless the FA and the Premier League are willing to introduce rules that not only force English players onto Premier League rosters but also force them into the games, the rules will not have any significant benefit to the English National Team but will reduce competitive balance in the Premier League and reduce the competitiveness of English clubs in European football.  Dyke should withdraw these proposals and come up with something more practical and less destructive.  Possibly, the focus should be on improving youth coaching in English football and the development of young players.  If the young English players of the future are better coached and become better players at a young age, their path into the first team of Premier League clubs will open naturally at least until they are bought and benched by the richer clubs.
Having determined that I think the current proposals are a very bad idea, I thought I should offer my suggestions to improve them.  Obviously, my first choice is simply to leave things as they are.  If that is not possible, I think that the proposals could be vastly improved simply by getting rid of the two roster places for club trained players.  If those roster places are eliminated, it removes the incentive for the richer clubs to try and gather up as many high quality 15 year-old players as possible.  In fact, the richer clubs will have no need to gather such players and would, instead, probably let them develop their skills at other clubs and buy them up in their early 20s when they can fill up their homegrown slots.  This would mitigate one of the effects of the rules that would probably be most harmful to the development of young players.  In effect, it would leave the situation where it is now where richer clubs buy young players, but they generally wait to make sure the young players are good enough.
I also do not believe that there is any need to increase the number of home grown players from eight to twelve.  If the problem that is being addressed is the “alarming” tendency for these home grown players to not be English because they can achieve home grown status  at age 21, it would be enough to enact the changes to the rules that require home grown status to be determined by age 18.  With such changes, players like Fabregas, Scheiderlin, Rafael, and Krul would no longer count as home grown players.  They would have to be fit into the roster as foreign players and their spots would be available to English players.
There is also something to be said for making changes one at a time and seeing what happens.  The changes in the academy systems are less than four years old.  The new work permits rule has just been implemented.  That rule will reduce the number of non- elite, non- EU foreign players in English football.  It will virtually eliminate non-EU players from the lower leagues.  This rule change might make a significant difference.  Why not wait a few years to see what happens before making any other changes? 

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