I Make Predictions (Round 33 minus)

Edit:  I made an error in calculating the points needed to have officially avoided relegation.  I mistakenly calculated the possibilities for Burnley and QPR finishing in 18th but not Leicester.  The correct number is 45 not 44.  I also badly miscalculated Merson's score.  Changes are in bold.

Last round Mark Lawrenson got five games right for 11 points.  His celebrity guest got seven games right for nine points.  Merson got nine games right for 17 points.  I got five games right for nine points.  These are all pretty good scores, but they gained ground on me again.   I also picked the midweek Aston Villa-QPR game (which they did not) and got it wrong.

Since I started making these predictions I have predicted 110 out of 210 games correctly for 163 points.  Lawrenson predicted 109 games out of 209 correctly for 147 points. Merson predicted 102 games out of 205 correctly for 150 points.

This weekend there are only seven games because of the nasty FA Cup semi-finals.  Since Southampton is still playing, I won’t miss the other games anyway.

I will link to Lawrenson’s and Merson’s new predictions when they are published. They will be found here and here.

Here are my predictions using the same rules outlined here.    Once again, my modifications for clubs that have played a different number of games do not matter because only Burnley, Leicester, and QPR would be affected.  QPR does not play and Burnley and Leicester are both predicted to lose either way.

Palace-West Brom          2-1

Everton-Burnley              2-1

Leicester-Swansea          1-2

Stoke-Southampton        1-1

Chelsea-Man U                 2-1

Man City-West Ham        2-1

Newcastle-Spurs              1-1

MAGIC NUMBERS

Here are our magic numbers for the entire League as explained here:

I have left the clubs in the same order as when I first posted this list because I find it more interesting that way.

Strictly speaking magic numbers do not go negative—when the number reaches zero you have clinched finishing ahead of that team—that is why the number is magic.  Nevertheless, I am going to continue calculating negative magic numbers because that information is useful to me in comparing the various clubs.  Anyone who is bothered by this can just treat all negative numbers as zero.

Chelsea                   39

Man City                24

Man U                     28

Arsenal                   29

Tottenham             17

Liverpool                20

West Ham                6

Swansea                 11

Stoke                         6

Newcastle               -2

Everton                     1

Palace                       5

Sunderland             -8

West Brom             -4

Aston Villa              -6

Burnley                 -11

Hull                          -9

QPR                       -12

Leicester                -9

The points total mathematically needed to avoid relegation is now 45.  So this week Swansea reached safety.  Wohoo.  If Leicester loses to Swansea, the number will drop to 44.

We have clinched 12^th place.  (Isn’t it amazing that since Pardew moved to Crystal Palace they have picked up 17 more points than Newcastle in just 13 games?) If everything goes right this weekend, we could clinch 8^th place.  Again, however, that is not really having things go right for us since it would mean that Manchester City beat West Ham and that is not our preference.