Brighton & Hove Albion’s Transfer Window

After looking at Bournemouth’s transfer dealings and current team, I decided to turn to Brighton & Hove.  However, I was somewhat dissatisfied with my Bournemouth analysis so I decided to do some additional research and not just look at the numbers.  That led me directly to a single big question:

Has every English football club been mismanaged and driven into receivership by an incompetent and/or corrupt board and/or owner resulting in an emotionally devastating drop into the lower leagues only to be rescued by wealthy locals or a wandering billionaire?

This may sound like a rhetorical question, but I really do want to know.  Just how common is this?  In any case, I found Brighton & Hove’s story interesting, at least as told by The Swiss Ramble. 

Actually, I have second question:  Do fans always panic early in the transfer window when their team does something they do not like and/or understand?

I found this quote on the Brighton and Hove Forum:

I am close to cancelling my season-ticket. Doubtless, I am not alone in resenting what appears to be a conspiracy of silence from the club and a drip-feed of misinformation from The Argus. Why will the club not comment on the relentless selling of any player of ours that makes us competitive at Championship level and gives us a chance of being promoted? We fans no do not have a right to know the minutiae of the club’s operations, but, surely, we deserve an explanation for the squad’s rapid, and continuing, diminution in size and quality.

It certainly sounds familiar.

Despite the similarities, Brighton & Hove faces an obvious difficulty that does not currently confront Southampton FC.  They are losing money.  They claim they will be able to comply with the Financial Fair Play requirements when they have to report on the 2013-2014 season on or before December 1.   At that time, they are limited to allowable losses of 8 million pounds or they face a transfer embargo.  The rules are here.  Basically, the owners can kick in up to 5 million pounds of equity and they can lose 3 million pounds.  Expenses related to “good” things don’t count.  This includes facility improvements, investment in the club’s community scheme and youth development programs, and promotion bonus payments to players. The Financial Fair Play website contains a useful discussion of these issues.

As for Brighton & Hove’s transfer window results, they appear to have recovered from their depressing start, but I think they are weaker now than they were at the end of last season.  As always, I am using information from Football Manager 2014 and Transfermarkt.    I will ignore players who were loaned in or out in both of the two relevant years in evaluating transfer business.  Again, I recognize that most of my readers will know more about Brighton than I do. 

INCOMING TRANSFERS

Player                                   CA                          PA                          Transfer Fee (in millions of pounds)

Sam Baldock                       109                         130                         2.2

David Stockdale                 122                         144                         1.14

George Cole                         50                          -6                            free

Danny Holla                       127                         137                         free

Danny Pappoe                    65                          -5                            free

Aaron Hughes                   127                         144                         free

Toko                                    117                         133                         free

Chris O’Grady                    113                         118                         unknown fee

Adrian Colunga                 129                         140                         unknown fee

OUTGOING TRANSFERS

Leonardo Ulloa                 130                         133                         8.91

William Buckley                126                         138                         2.74

Courtney Richards             61                          -6                            free

Matthew Upson               127                         152                         free

Tomasz Kuszczak              129                         140                         free

Andrea Orlandi                 123                         128                         free

Will Hoskins                       112                         116                         free

Peter Brezovan                 101                         110                         free

David Lopez                       123                         138                         free

Stephen Ward                  114                         130                         loan ended

David Rodriguez               120                         124                         free

Keith Andrews                  123                         135                        loan ended

Transfermarket values the entire roster at 18.66 million pounds which is 13^th in the Championship.

The team appears to be noticeably weaker just based upon transfer dealings.    Brighton, in contrast to Bournemouth and to Southampton, when we were in the Championship, seemed to have had trouble holding onto their best players.  They had good players picked off by Leicester (x2) and Sunderland.  I suspect Southampton would not have been promoted if we had lost Lallana, Lambert, and Fonte in August 2011.  On the other hand, Brighton voluntarily released Orlandi, Kuszczak, Lopez, Hoskins, Brezovan, and Rodriguez—unless those decisions were Financial Fair Play based and, therefore, not truly voluntary.

STARTING ELEVEN

I am not sure what line up Brighton will be using.  They used distinctly different line ups in their last two games.  I will assume a 4-2-3-1.  I will compare their best FM 2014 CA line ups for each year not because it accurately reflects what they did/will do but because it is the most straightforward way to compare the strength of the team in each year and does not require me to research every line up from last year or to second guess the manager this year.

Position                                Last year(CA)                     This year(CA)

G                                             Kuszczak 129                      Stockdale 122

LB                                           Ward 114                             Chicksen 96

CB                                           Upson 127                           Hughes 127

CB                                           Greer 124                            124

RB                                           Bruno 125                            125

CM                                         Crofts 121                            Holla 127

CM                                         Andrews 123                      Augustien 124

AM                                         Buckley 126                        O’Grady 113

AM                                         Orlandi 123                         Mackail-Smith 122

AM                                         Lualua 117                           117

ST                                           Ulloa 130                              Colunga 129

I can see why the fans started to panic.  Brighton lost at least seven of their best CA players by early August.

Even at the end of the transfer window their best eleven is 26 CA weaker than last year which is probably significant, but not dramatically so.  They are still 36 CA better than Bournemouth which is also probably significant.  I assume this means I should predict that they are safe from relegation but not likely to make the play offs.  But that would just be guessing unless I run a similar analysis of other potential contenders.  Of course, there is still time to bring in additional loan players so things might improve even more.  I guess I should just pick them to finish ahead of Bournemouth.