In preparation for this article I spent several hours
reading up on Portsmouth. This included visiting Portsmouth fan forums and
blogs. The depth of hostility between
the two teams is, frankly, baffling to me.
I am particularly puzzled by the attempt to put a moral cast on the
whole thing. I do not like the city of
Los Angeles and would never want to live there, but I don’t think that the
people who do are inherently immoral or evil. Yet, I get the feeling the fans of the two
clubs do feel that way about each other.
Is this some English “all in good fun” thing I am missing or is the
hatred real? It certainly seems real to me.
The recent history of Portsmouth FC and Southampton FC is
very similar. Both clubs had incompetent
management that overspent and drove them into financial ruin. But this was not the fault of the fans. No doubt the fans of each club tried to
support their club and put a positive spin on the actions of their club’s
management whenever possible, but the fans themselves were not spending the
non-existent money. Admittedly, the Portsmouth fans benefited with an FA Cup
and a second FA final appearance.
Perhaps for some that was even worth the later problems.
The big difference between the current situations of the two
clubs, as I see it, comes down to luck and timing. We were lucky enough not to fall into the
hands of a string of less than competent, not rich enough, and, probably,
ethically dubious owners. Instead, we
fell into the hands of Markus Liebherr, who not only saved the club from
dissolution, but actually paid off the club’s debts. This distinguished him
from most rich folks who buy a football team out of administration who have
neither the inclination nor, probably, the money to do this. However, there was nothing inherent in the
character of the Southampton fan that drew the attention of an ethical
billionaire. Any fan whose team was in
administration would have been happy to welcome Markus Liebherr. Southampton
fans should never forget how lucky they were that he came here.
True, in 2009, any reasonable billionaire would have viewed
Southampton’s physical plant and youth set up as a better investment than that
of Portsmouth—especially given Portsmouth’s greater debts. Moreover, Portsmouth had not yet hit bottom
and, so, was probably not purchasable by an ethical billionaire. But ethical billionaires are relatively
rare. There was no inevitability that
one would show up just in time to save Southampton or that a string of bad
owners would jump into Portsmouth.
I don’t fully understand the financial shenanigans that have
plagued Portsmouth over the years. I
know that Southampton fans believe either than the current people running
Portsmouth are pulling a fast one on their fans or, maybe, it is the fans
themselves who are pulling a fast one—possibly on themselves. Perhaps someone can refer me to the necessary
links so I can understand this—but I have read dozens of articles and who, if
anyone, currently running the team is morally culpable I cannot determine. However, I cannot bring myself to criticize
the fans who did what was necessary to save their team—even though it meant
debts were left unpaid. There is simply
no way that a fan’s trust could raise the tens of millions of pounds necessary to
retire all Portsmouth’s debts in full, nor should they be expected to try. At some point the people who loan money to a
poorly run football team simply have to take their losses. I have relatively little sympathy for the
banks or would-be owners who lost money.
Of course, the local merchants deserved better.
On the other hand, I would feel more comfortable about
everything if Portsmouth’s recent financial statements were easily accessible. An attempt to Google for this information
brings up mostly stuff from 2010. One
would think that something more current would be easily findable. Maybe the financial fair play reports will
take care of this later this year.
In any case, the path back to the BPL will be difficult, if
not impossible, for Portsmouth. Promotion
to League One seems inevitable, but beyond that who knows what will happen. The financial fair play rules for the League
One and League Two do permit a rich benefactor to buy a team and chip in money,
but it doesn’t seem like Portsmouth is currently set up to go that way. Doing
it the hard way will take time. Right now Portsmouth is working on building up
its academy and training ground.
Clearly, this is an important step for the future, but not a fast track back to
the BPL.
THE TRANSFER WINDOW
I had decided a while ago that I was going to do an
evaluation of Portsmouth’s transfer window.
My original plan was to work my way down through the local teams by league
until I got to league two. However, at
some point a couple of things became clear to me. One, I have a limited amount of interest and time to
spend doing this sort of thing and, two, I would rather devote it to Southampton’s
next opponent. Also, I am not clear as
to what teams are local enough to be of interest. Is Reading?
How about Yeovil? I don’t know and, at this point, I don’t care. I may still look at Eastleigh, but maybe not.
As always, I am using information from Football Manager 2014
and Transfermarkt.
I will ignore players who were loaned
in both this year and last or loaned out both years in evaluating transfer
business. Again, I recognize that most
of my readers will know more about Portsmouth than I do. I am not listing the PA because the PA is
pretty much meaningless for a League Two team in FM. The older players are fading and will never
reach their PA again. The younger
players will never develop very much at a League Two team.
INCOMING TRANSFERS
Player CA Transfer Fee (in
millions of pounds)
Paul Robinson 118 loan
Paul Jones 110 free
Danny Hollands 102 free
James Dunne 89 free
Craig Westcarr 87 free
Michael Poke 84 free
Miles Storey 82 loan
Alex Wynter 70 loan
Nigel Atangana 62 undisclosed
OUTGOING TRANSFERS
Simon Ferry 107 free
Marcos Painter 97 free
Jake Jervis 93 free
Therry Racon 89 free
Trevor Carson 85 end of loan
Romain Padovani 83 free
Phil Smith 82 free
Sonny Bradley 82 free
John Sullivan 77 free
Yassin Moutaouakil 76 free
Bondz N’Gala 75 free
Ryan Bird 70 free
Ashley Harris 67 free
George Branford 45 free
Josh Warren 40 free
Liam Triggs 40 free
By the standards of League Two, it looks like Portsmouth had
a successful transfer window. Overall,
FM ratings depict the incoming transfers as being significantly better than the
outgoing transfers. Obviously,
Portsmouth is operating on a tight budget.
According to Transfermarket, they did not spend or earn any transfer
fees other than the undisclosed fee for Atangana. Given the history and current situation,
sticking to a budget is undoubtedly necessary.
Transfermarket values the entire roster at 4.2 million
pounds which is the highest in League Two by 0.55 million pounds.
Northampton is the next most valuable team, but a quick look at the CAs of
their players suggests that, according the FM, Portsmouth is a much better club. Since Portsmouth finished middle of the table
last year, this level of improvement suggests that promotion is a real
possibility. Given Portsmouth’s relatively illustrious history by League Two
standards, the club ought to be able to continue to attack some good players—again
by League Two standards.
STARTING ELEVEN
For last year’s team I used the players who played the
most. When no one played enough to be
the clear starter I used the best rated player from among those who played a
moderate number of games. For this year’s
team I used the best rated players available for each position.
Position Last
year(CA) This year(CA)
G Carson
85 Jones 110
LB Shorey
94 94
CB Devera
85 Robinson 118
CB Bradley
82 Chorley 88
RB Moutaouakil
76 Wynter 70
CM Fogden
91 91
CM Racon
89 Hollands
102
CM Ertle
85 Dunne
89
AM Barcham
93 93
AM Wallace
88 88
ST Agyemang
97 97
The team has improved by 81 CA at five positions and gotten
worse by 6 CA at one position for a total improvement of 75 CA. This is a very significant improvement. Of course, it is helped by the fact that the
best CA player transferred out, Simon Ferry, only played 22 games last
year. If he were a regular starter, the
comparison would not look quite as good, but it would still be very favorable.
Thus, it seems logical to predict that Portsmouth will contend for promotion.
I will forgive you as you have never been to Portsmouth.
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