My Scouting Report (January 2015 edition)

Back in August I used Football Manager (FM) 2014, the FM editor, and the rest of the internet to construct a plausible list of transfer targets for Southampton.   That blog entry can be found here.  I did a follow up after the transfer window closed here.   I am going to try again using FM 2015—so the data is current as of September 2014 rather than February 2014.  My efforts are focused solely on the January transfer window.  There are some players I think might be realistic summer transfer targets who are not available in January—for example, everyone on Dortmund—so I will ignore them in this post.

In August, I thought we needed a right attacking midfielder and a central defender so I focused on those two positions. Right now I think we need a striker and another attacking midfielder.  We could also use a backup goalie and right fullback, but I really don’t think we are going to look for or find anyone appropriate who would sign up for us just to be a backup.  Therefore, I have focused my efforts on striker and attacking midfielder.  Of course, if we are foolish enough to sell Schneiderlin or Wanyama in January then we need another defensive midfielder, but I will take Ronald Koeman at his word as assume no January sales are going to happen.

I know some people think it is silly to use FM to scout for players in this way and I don’t entirely disagree.  However, the FM database is used for scouting by top level teams so it is not all that silly.  More importantly, if I am going to write on this subject I have no real choice.  I don’t have a team of scouts of my own to scour the Earth for possible signings.

I also recognize that the best signings Southampton can make are not ones that FM says are good enough for us.  The best signings are (cheap) players FM says are not good enough for us who turn out to be too good for us.

Once again I created a large data base and played as the manager of Manchester United because they have lots of relatively high quality scouts.  Even though I scouted the maximum number of players possible for over a month of game time, there are still many unscouted players so this system is not perfect.  I have also done my best to eliminate players who obviously wouldn’t sign for us either because they are too good for us, too expensive for us, or just signed long term contracts at their current team.

I am well aware of the flaws in this system.  To take just one example, Callum McManaman showed up as a potential prospect in August with a Current Ability (CA) of 134 and a Potential Ability (PA) of 160.  In the new database he is a CA 121 PA 150.  Has he really regressed that much?  I have no idea, but it seems unlikely.  Maybe he was overrated last year.  In any case, he did not make the cut this time.

STRIKER

I screened for strikers with moderately good pace and acceleration (both 13 plus), 27 or younger, and theoretically good enough to play for us now.  (CA of 130 or better.)  I then eliminated everyone better than Balotelli (whom FM overrates, in my opinion).   This generated a list of 17 strikers.  However, three were eliminated because they only signed with their current club this past summer (Facundo Ferreya, Jospi Drmic, and Brown Ideye).  Three were eliminated because I do not believe they could get work permits (Osvaldo—a different one, Walter, and Marcelo).  Two were eliminated because they had suffered recent serious injuries (Lorenzo Insigne and Giuseppe Rossi).  One was eliminated because of data base problems with FM (Rodrigo).

Here are the remaining eight players listed in CA order:

NAME                                                                   CLUB                                                     CA          PA

Kevin Gameiro                                                  Sevilla                                                   151         154

Mattia Destro                                                    Roma                                                   149         165

Stephan El Shaarawy                                       AC Milan                                              147         170

Mauro Icardi                                                      Inter                                                     144         170

Simone Zaza                                                      Sassvolo                                               142         152

Anthony Modeste                                            Hoffenheim                                         139         142

Leandro Damiao                                               Santos                                                  138         150

Douglas Coutinho                                             PSV                                                       132         150

Transfer rumors are already flying about several of these folks.  Arsenal is rumored to be buying Destro for £15 million.  Liverpool and Arsenal are rumored to want El Shaarawy.  Juventus supposedly wants Zaza. Manchester United may want Coutinho.  Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea, and Athletico Madrid all supposedly want Icardi.  Allegedly, Damiao is up for sale.

Zaza was a very good player for me in one of my FM saves—although he was no longer good enough for the club once we started playing regularly in the Champions League.

Of course, I have no idea which, if any, rumors are even the slightest bit true but the rumors themselves do suggest a bit of a problem.  Players who are good enough to help us are also good enough to be wanted by bigger teams.  On the other hand, if we can enter the transfer window still ahead of Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham and look serious about strengthening the team maybe someone good would want to sign with us.  Of course, we might have to overpay them and risking ending up with another problem like we now have with Osvaldo and Gaston Ramirez.

ATTACKING MIDFIELDER

I screened for attacking midfielders at any of the three positions, under 28, pace and acceleration of 12 or better, passing of 13 or better, and theoretically good enough to play for us now.  This left me with a list that was too long (84 players) and, unlike with the strikers, there was no obvious cut off point for the players who would be too good and/or expensive for us.  Plus, the list was full of players who while not too good would obviously not be available and/or wanted—Raheem Sterling, Philippe Coutinho,  or Adel Taarabt, for example. As a result, I had to use more personal judgment than I am normally comfortable with to cut the list down to a reasonable size. Even after I removed recent transfers, players on loan for the full season, player with injuries, and players who probably couldn’t get a work permit, the list was still quite long.  (By the way, I left off anyone who was already on the striker list.)

NAME                                                                   CLUB                                                     CA          PA

Dimitri Payet                                                     OM                                                        151         166

Xherdan Shaqiri                                                Bayern                                                  150         166

Dries Mertens                                                   Napoli                                                   150         160

Nicolas Gaitan                                                   SLB                                                        150         160

Wellington Nem                                               Shakhtar                                               148         162

Memphis Depay                                               PSV                                                        147         -9

Adem Ljajic                                                        Roma                                                    146         164

Younes Belhanda                                             Dynamo Kyiv                                        143         160

Jonathan Schmid                                              Freiburg                                               143         149

Giuliano                                                              Gremio                                                142         152

Alexandru Maxim                                            Stuttgart                                              142         149

Zoran Tosic                                                       CSKA Moscow                                     142         147

Patrick Herrman                                               BMG                                                    141         152

Balazs Dzsudzsak                                             Dinamo Moscow                               141         151

Alexandre Lacazette                                       Lyon                                                     140         165

Ryan Babel                                                       Kasimpasa                                           139         144

Andros Townsend                                           Tottenham                                         137         152

Henri Saivet                                                      Bordeaux                                            135         150

Maximilian Beister                                          Hamburg                                             135         146

Luciano Narsingh                                             PSV                                                      135         144

Nathan Redmond                                            Norwich                                              133         155

There are too many of these people to detail what team is rumored to be interested each of them.

Shaqiri is probably beyond our price range and would not want to join us, but I left him on the list because he does appear to be for sale.

Babel is problematic because he appears to be a big Liverpool fan.  His head may already be there.

Swansea reportedly agreed to a £6.5 million fee for Payet in the summer, but he decided not to move.

Wellington Nem was a great signing for me in my FM 2013 save where he and Gaston Ramirez tore up the league for a while until Ramirez suffered a season ending injury from which he never fully recovered.  Take that for what it is worth.

There are a couple of players who did not show up on my screen but might be worth considering on loan:  Scott Sinclair and Adnan Januzaj.  Sinclair didn’t show up because his passing rating was too low but he is a CA 134 PA 143.  He has been loaned out before and might be available.  Januzaj, a CA 145 PA 178, didn’t show up on my screen because he is a Manchester United player so their scouts didn’t look at him.  He is not getting much playing time at Man U, but would clearly be good enough to play for us.  If Man U does not consider us to be a big threat to them, they might want to strengthen us against their competitors and give one of their best prospects some first team action.

EDIT:  I just noticed a thread on Saints Web that we have signed or all but signed Eljero Elia.  See the Mirror article here.  Elia missed my screen because his passing is too low, an 11.  He is a CA 137, PA 150.  His pace and acceleration are both 17.  According to FM he is really good at dribbling, first touch, technique, flair, and agility.  He is not so good at jumping, heading, marking, tackling, bravery, leadership, concentration, determination, positioning, team work, and long throws.