Good Luck Bournemouth

With my usual keen insight, I noticed that Bournemouth was in first place in the Championship at Christmas.  Since, as an American, I am completely uninvolved with your petty local rivalries—although I do recognize that the Los Angeles Dodgers are scum…or are they skates—I want Bournemouth to get promoted to the Premier League.  In fact, I believe that it would be good for Southampton.

It would make one of our away games next year a much easier trip for the club and fans and it would add a much longer trip for most of our rivals—although I suppose it won’t be too bad for the London teams.  This can only help.

I also think that it would be good to play a local rivalry game twice a year.  Much fun as Southampton fans have in hating Portsmouth and gloating at their Fourth Division status, it would be better, in my view, to be able to play and beat them every year.  Admittedly, that would also create the risk that they would beat us, but that is what sport is all about.  As it stands right now, baring a random cup draw, even if I am a Southampton fan for the rest of my life I may never get the chance to watch Southampton play Portsmouth.  (The two games in the 2011-2012 season were not carried on the Fox Sports app.)

Portsmouth aside, there are plenty of reasons for me to like Bournemouth.  They are playing Artur Boruc, who despite his grumpiness at being displaced here, still did a good job for us.  I am happy he is doing well there.  If they get promoted, I hope they can sign him. Bournemouth gave Liverpool a decent game and had had some big victories this year.  What’s not to like?  Frankly, I think we should loan them another player next month, if we have someone we can spare, who needs the playing time, and who would help them.

I was also curious as to the significance of their first place status at Christmas.  I looked back for ten years—which happens to overlap the “Championship” name period—to see what league positions at Christmas have meant.  I made no effort to sort out the frequent unequal number of games played (except to note that it is not an issue this year and Bournemouth really is in first place) and just went with the Christmas day table.

Pos        PtsBhd                  AvgPos                   AvgPts                      Prm%

1              0                              2.0                          89.5                        80%

2              4.0                          3.4                          81.7                        70%

3              5.8                          3.3                          73.8                        60%

4              8.1                          6.2                          74.4                        30%

5              10.6                        8.1                          69.1                        10%

6              12.0                        8.4                          69.3                        10%

7              13.4                        9.4                          67.5                        10%

8              14.0                        10.5                        67.1                        10%

And all the Rest                                                                                    20%

Pos:  Table place at Christmas

PtsBhd:  Average Points behind the first placed club at Christmas

AvgPos:  Average final position

AvgPts:  Average points at end of season

Prm%:  Percentage of time being promoted from this position

I was surprised at just how top heavy the promotion results are.  The top four teams get 2.4 promotions year in and year out.  I would have expected the results to be more spread out than this.  Admittedly, my sample size is rather small.  I could have looked at League One and Two tables or gone back another 10 or so years, but this is what I had time for.

On the surface this looks pretty good for Bournemouth—an 80% chance of promotion.  However, this is an unusually tight race. They have a relatively small lead over the following teams: 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 8, 8 points respectively.  An average spacing would be something like:  4, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14. The only other first place team that had an eight point or less lead over the first non-playoff spot—Watford in 2007-2008—did not get promoted. 

On the other hand, Bournemouth has a very good goal differential which has only been equaled once and exceeded once by teams in first at Christmas. Both those teams, Newcastle in 2009-1010 and Reading in 2005-2006 finished first by a wide margin.  Neither of the two first place teams that did not get promoted even led the league in goal differential at Christmas.

The real reason to be optimistic about Bournemouth’s chances is not because their presence in first place on Christmas wraps up the title race, but because the very fact that they are in first place with a great goal differential is very strong evidence that they are a very good team and, therefore, likely to keep winning.

I hope to see them in the Premier League next year and wish them luck for the rest of the season.