I Make Predictions (Round 18)

Last week, using his scoring system, Mark Lawrenson got six games right for 10 points.  His celebrity guest got seven games right for seven points.  I got seven games right for nine points.  Since I started making predictions six rounds ago, I have gotten 29 out of 60 games right for 45 points.  Lawrenson has gotten 32 games right for 40 points.  I think this proves that my system is comparable to his in picking results—at least using his scoring system.

I do recognize, however, a problem with my system.  At the beginning of the season I don’t have a data base of previous results to go on.  I could pick every game to be a 1-1 draw in the first round and then go from there.  Or I could use the prior year’s table for the first five to ten rounds.  Or maybe I should be making predictions based upon the last 20 games from both seasons.  If I am still doing this next season I will figure it out then.

Harping on my usual point, this past weekend four games were decided by two or more goals and Lawrenson got two of them exactly right.  If he does this more often it will cast doubt on my theory that you should never pick someone to win by more than one goal.  We will have to see if these picks were just a fluke or if he can make such predictions reliably.

Lawrenson’s new predictions are found here:  http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/30547515 

Here are my predictions for St. Stephen's day using the same rules outlined here. 

Chelsea-West Ham                                         2-1

Burnley-Liverpool                                            1-2

Palace-Southampton                                      0-1

Everton-Stoke                                                  2-1

Leicester-Spurs                                                1-2

Man U-Newcastle                                           2-1

Sunderland-Hull                                              2-1

Swansea-Aston Villa                                       1-0

West Brom-Man City                                      0-1

Arsenal-QPR                                                     2-1

Surprisingly, the system picked no draws this round.  I don’t really expect that to happen, but the Boxing Day games are mostly between teams that are not close to each other in the table.   Where the teams are close, the home team is ahead and, therefore, automatically picked to win by my system. This week may be a good test of my one goal theory since, presumably, there are six or seven games which a typical expert could predict to have a two goal plus margin of victory.  (Maybe I should start trying to predict Lawrenson’s predictions.)

EDIT:  I added the link to Lawrenson's predictions, but I couldn't figure out how to format it properly.  He predicted seven games to be decided by 2 or more goals which is in line with my prediction of his predictions--although they are not the same seven games I would have guessed.