I was not completely surprised to find that, in some ways, tabulating this information at the halfway point of the season did not necessarily provide much additional clarity over my earlier charts.
Compare this chart with the first one I did found here.
Because of the smaller number of data points and the greater number of teams
with each point total, the picture seems clearer in the earlier study. That apparent clarity is enhanced because I
did not summarize the league from top to bottom and, instead, stopped at 17
points. The equivalent stopping point
after 19 games would be 32 points—only one point below where we are now. Possibly the new chart would look clearer if
I cut it off at 32 points. I chose not
to do that both because I am a glutton for punishment and because I wanted the
option to look at relegation issues not just European qualifying.
A few caveats: my
results are based on the table position and statistics for each club after it
played exactly 19 games. In some years not
all clubs reached 19 games at the same time.
These totals apply to each club for their first 19 games of their
season—not for one game against each opponent.
For example, in 2010-2011, the first five clubs hit 19 games on December
27, but the other teams had only played 17 or 18 games. Manchester United played its 18th
game on December 29 and its 19th game on January 1. I counted both those games in my totals for
Manchester United, but not for its opponents if they had already played 19
games. I did not include goal differentials on this chart—not because they would
not have been interesting—but because it was way too much additional work.
19 GAMES FINAL
Pts Clubs AvPo PsRg AvgPs PsRg AvgPts PtsRng
52 1 1 1 1 1 91 91
47 1 1 1 1 1 89 89
46 3 1 1 1.7 1-3 86.3 75-95
45 6 1.5 1-2 1.5 1-2 86.7 83-90
44 2 1.5 1-2 3.0 3 76.0 69-83
43 3 1.3 1-2 1.3 1-2 82.7 77-91
42 5 1.8 1-3 2.6 1-4 79.8 69-86
41 8 2.1 1-3 1.9 1-3 82.8 75-90
40 3 3.0 3 3.0 2-4 76.0 61-85
39 4 1.5 1-2 3.5 2-6 71.3 58-78
38 4 2.5 1-3 3.3 2-4 72.8 63-85
37 6 3.2 2-4 4.2 2-7 71.7 58-80
36 8 2.9 1-5 3.0 1-6 72.5 55-87
35 10 3.5 2-5 5.1 1-13 66.8 48-71
34 18 4.5 3-7 5.0 1-10 65.1 51-79
33 17 5.4 4-8 5.5 1-12 62.9 43-79
32 9 5.4 4-7 4.9 2-8 64.6 55-78
31 10 7.0 4-7 7.3 2-13 57.4 43-68
30 6 6.3 4-8 6.7 5-9 59.3 51-65
29 10 7.1 5-9 8.8 4-16 53.1 42-63
28 11 7.9 6-10 9.9 5-15 49.2 42-60
Pts Clubs AvPo PsRg AvgPs PsRg AvgPts PtsRng
27 16 9.0 7-11 9.9 6-17 52.1 35-63
26 14 9.1 7-11 10.7 5-16 49.1 39-61
25 17 10.6 8-13 9.4 4-19 52.3 39-68
24 11 11.5 9-13 11.6 6-16 47.7 39-56
23 14 11.7 10-14 12.7 6-18 46.1 37-61
22 25 12.9 11-15 13.0 7-18 45.0 33-61
21 16 13.7 11-16 13.4 9-20 44.6 33-52
20 19 15.4 13-18 13.2 8-19 44.3 32-52
19 10 16.2 14-18 15.5 8-19 39.5 30-49
18 14 16.6 15-19 17.2 13-20 36.2 19-45
17 15 17.2 15-19 16.0 11-20 38.3 25-50
16 11 17.9 16-20 17.1 11-20 36.1 26-45
15 10 18.6 17-20 16.8 12-20 37.0 32-43
14 10 19.1 18-20 17.7 14-20 35.2 28-42
13 4 19.5 19-20 18.3 17-20 36.3 34-41
12 3 19.7 19-20 19.7 19-20 30.0 26-34
11 2 19.5 19-20 20.0 20 26.0 24-28
10 4 19.8 19-20 19 17-20 29 25-34
9 1 20 20 19 19 31 31
7 1 20 20 20 20 11 11
6 1 20 20 20 20 15 15
Pts Clubs AvgPs PsRg AvgPs PsRg AvgPts PtsRng
19 GAMES FINAL
Pts: The clubs’ point
total after 19 games
Clubs: The
historical number of clubs with this point total.
AvgPs: The average
table position for clubs with this point total at 19 games or the full season
depending.
PsRg: The range of
table positions for clubs with this point total at 19 games or the full season
depending.
AvgPts: Average
number of points for clubs in this position after the full season.
PtsRng: The range of
points for clubs in this position after the full season.
Our point total of 33 does not seem to say very much about
where we are likely to finish—other than well out of any relegation battle. Finishing first Is unlikely, but the team
that did finish first from 33 points, Arsenal in 1997-1998, was in sixth place
ten full points behind the leaders.
However, they won the championship with just 78 points. Both Chelsea and Manchester City are virtually
certain to exceed that point total.
If you want to use this information to make predictions: no club has ever won the league with fewer than 33
points after 19 games. No club has finished
fourth or higher with fewer than 25 points.
No club has ever been relegated with more than 25 points. No club with fewer than 14 points has ever
avoided relegation. Not surprisingly,
the cut off point for probably avoiding relegation is one point a game. The cut off point for probably making the
Champions League is 35 points after 19 games.
Combining the final ranges with this season's table I created
this chart of where clubs can be expected to finish historically. The third column adds in the information from
my prior post using each club’s current table spot. However, after making this chart, I decided
that it probably does not add much insight.
On the other hand, it is done and it won’t burn your eyes out or
anything. Feel free to ignore it.
Chelsea 1-3
1-3
Man City 1-2 1-2
Man Utd 1-6 1-6
Southampton 1-12 2-8
Arsenal 1-12 2-12
West Ham 2-13 2-13
Spurs 2-13 5-11
Liverpool 5-15
6-15
Swansea 5-16 6-16
Newcastle 5-16
6-16
Stoke 4-19
6-19
Everton 9-20 9-18
Aston Villa 9-20 9-20
Sunderland 8-19 8-19
QPR 13-20 13-17
West Brom 11-20 11-20
Hull 11-20
11-19
Crystal Palace 11-20 12-20
Burnley 11-20 14-20
Leicester 17-20 14-20
This is probably the end of my Midseason Statistical Over
Analyses.
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