My Preseason BPL Picks

I probably should have posted this yesterday, before any games were played, but it really doesn’t matter because I am using a system that is completely independent of today’s results.  I do not believe that predicting sports with an emotional involvement works well.  The failures rate of emotional picking is disguised by the fact that anything can happen so emotional picks sometimes turn out correctly and we tend to remember when we were right more than we remember when we were wrong.  (I have correctly picked --in the preseason--the 49ers to win the Superbowl four times.  I have incorrectly picked them to win the Superbowl nine times--I think, I don't really remember exactly.)  So I have decided upon a system where I will only use objective information—at least, objective to me.  

I ranked the teams from one to twenty based upon Transfermarkt’s  market value assessment of the  teams' roster. (http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/startseite/wettbewerb/GB1 )  I ranked the teams based upon Football Manager 2014’s Current Ability for the top 15 players on each team.   (This was a pain to tabulate.) I ranked the teams based upon their player payroll—this one required some guessing since current payroll figures are not available but it was not too difficult to come up with guesstimates that are close to correct.  I averaged these three lists together weighing them equally to come up with my predictions.  If there was a tie, I picked the team that finished higher last season. (This put Southampton ahead of Stoke.)

I do not think any purpose will be served by showing each list.  This is my final prediction:

1                    Manchester City
2                    Chelsea
3                    Manchester United
4                    Arsenal
5                    Liverpool
6                    Tottenham
7                    Everton
8                    Newcastle United
9                    Southampton
10                Stoke
11                Aston Villa
12                Queens Park Rangers
13                West Ham United
14                Swansea
15                West Brom
16                Sunderland
17                Hull City
18                Crystal Palace
19                Leicester City
20                Burnley

If I were picking subjectively, I would have put Manchester United and QPR a couple of places lower.   I would have put Aston Villa a lot lower.  If Pulis hadn’t left Crystal Palace I would have rated them higher with a subjective approach. Overall, however, I am satisfied with this list.  We shall see how I do.